Middle East powder keg: The fear of a large-scale war

The worst-case scenario could look like this: An Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip involving troops on the ground sparks a chain reaction of violence and turmoil in the region. As the fighting widens, it pulls more and more states and groups into the spiral of violence, possibly including even the United States and Russia.

Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the planned ground offensive could last for months, "but in the end, there will be no Hamas." The Israeli government is responding to brutal terrorist attacks by Hamas on Israel in which at least 1,400 people — including babies, women and the elderly — were killed and more than 200 taken hostageThehe Israeli operation could reach its aims in purely military terms, said Middle East analyst Guido Steinberg of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

"I think that the Israeli military is capable of destroying the structures of Hamas in the Gaza Strip," he said in the DW program "To the Point." But, he added, many civilians would die no matter how carefully the Israeli military proceeds.

Escalation risk: Civilian casualties

That could precisely be Hamas's intention, said Hans-Jakob Schindler of the international policy organization Counter Extremism Project.

"Hamas wants to produce horrifying images of dead Palestinian civilians and thereby draw Iran and its proxies into this conflict, Schindler told DW.

These proxies are the armed groups in the region sponsored by Iran, including the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. Hezbollah has repeatedly launched rocket attacks on Israel but, so far, refrained from mounting a broader offensive. A large-scale Israeli ground offensive is still far from certain, Schindler said.

"If the situation does escalate … first of all, Hezbollah could massively bombard northern Israel. The next level of escalation could also see attacks in Syria against US positions there. The third phase would probably be the Shi'ite militias in Iraq, which would then attack the US and possibly other Western targets," he told DW.

Biden to Israel: Don't let rage consume you

US President Joe Biden has taken two steps to prevent this kind of chain reaction from being set in motion. First, he deployed two aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean as a warning to Hezbollah and Iran. Also, while affirming America's support for Israel's security needs and right to self-defense, he appealed to Israel to act with restraint in the Gaza Strip.

Speaking in Tel Aviv, he warned Israel against being "consumed by rage" and repeating US mistakes following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

The aim is now "to show Iran and its proxies that escalating the situation would surely result in their structures being significantly weakened," Schindler said. He added that the international community should focus on helping to ease the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip so that the conflict does not hit "the wrong people."

Following a call with heads of state and government in Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Canada, Biden reached a consensus for supporting Israel and respecting its right to self-defense. The leaders also urged the upholding of international humanitarian law, meaning the protection of Palestinian civilians.

US regarded as biased

However, the problem the US faces is that wide parts of the region regard it as biased in Israel's favor.

That perception was made clear in the aftermath of an explosion at a hospital in Gaza in mid-October. Hamas said an Israeli air strike hit the facility, but Biden backed the Israeli account, which blamed a misfired rocket from the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad. Many Western experts later also supported this view.

Following the blast, however, Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, Jordan's King Abdullah II and Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas called off a planned meeting with Biden.

Washington's reputation as Israel's staunchest ally has opened space for other actors like Germany. Although the meeting with Biden was canceled, el-Sissi gave a news conference in Cairo with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. King Abdullah was even in Berlin the previous day. In the space of just 48 hours, Scholz became the sole leader to appear publicly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, King Abdullah and El-Sissi.

Germany has clearly positioned itself alongside Israel. Yet Berlin has been widely accepted in the region as an honest broker. That should be "used to enable a more peaceful development than that which is now emerging," Scholz said in Cairo.

Germany is primarily working on diplomacy to speed humanitarian aid into Gaza. That would be "one of the truly best contributions Germany can make here," Schindler said. According to him, Germany has little to offer militarily except by supporting Israel logistically.

Ambivalent Russian interests

But what if the conflict escalates dramatically? Could even Russia, with its ties to Iran and Syria, be drawn into the fighting?

Schindler sees little chance of that happening. This latest Middle East conflict comes at an opportune moment because it draws attention away from Russia's war in Ukraine. The Kremlin therefore has an interest in drawing it out and tying down Western capabilities as long as possible, he says.

Yet Russian President Vladimir Putin would want to keep the conflict at a low level so "he does not find himself having to commit resources in the Middle East that he already lacks in Ukraine."

This article was originally written in German.

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