SIPRI: With peace elusive, nuclear weapons make a comeback

Many countries are ramping up their military capabilities — and nuclear weapons are back on the agenda.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), all nine nuclear-armed countries modernized and expanded their arsenals in 2025. In addition to new nuclear weapons, additional delivery systems have been introduced that can be equipped with both conventional and nuclear warheads. These include missiles or cruise missiles.

For the 2026 annual report, the SIPRI researchers identify a general trend: More governments are once again banking on nuclear weapons for national defense. Tytti Erasto, a scientist with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction program, told DW that Finland and Sweden are examples of countries where nuclear policy has changed drastically since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and after their accession to NATO.

"Historically known as nonaligned supporters of nuclear disarmament, these states are now actively involved in NATO nuclear policy, for example by taking part in exercises simulating nuclear weapon use," Erasto said.

According to SIPRI, there were nearly 12,200 nuclear weapons worldwide in 2025. Though this is a slight decrease compared with 2024, it is not an indicator of disarmament. At present, more outdated warheads are being retired than new ones are being added.

Researchers found that that will likely change. "This trend is likely to be reversed in the coming years," they wrote, "as the pace of dismantlement is slowing, while the deployment of new nuclear weapons is accelerating."

Governments 'flexing their nuclear muscles'

In 2009, US President Barack Obama was celebrated for his vision of a world free from nuclear weapons. Current developments show a world moving in the opposite direction. In February, the last remaining international agreement limiting the number of nuclear weapons expired — the New START treaty between the United States and Russia.

"The evidence is growing that the nuclear weapon states are sidelining, and even walking away from, their disarmament commitments and are instead flexing their nuclear muscles," said Hans M. Kristensen, a nuclear weapons expert with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction program and the Federation of American Scientists. "By reaching for nuclear solutions, states are creating new risks and fueling arms-race dynamics."

According to SIPRI, nine states possess nuclear weapons: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel, which has not officially confirmed that it holds nuclear arms. SIPRI data show that Russia and the United States combine for about 83% of all deployable nuclear warheads.

Like many other governments, North Korea continues to expand its nuclear capabilities. SIPRI estimates that the country may already have about 60 assembled warheads and enough fissile material to produce at least 30 more.

In 2025, the regime in Pyongyang presented and tested new missile systems, including the solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile Hwasong-20.

China builds additional nuclear missile silos

China is modernizing its nuclear forces faster than any other country. According to SIPRI estimates, China has about 620 nuclear warheads, up from 600 in 2024. At a military parade in September 2025, China presented a complete nuclear triad — or weapons deployable from land, sea and air — for the first time.

According to SIPRI, China has stationed hundreds of nuclear-capable missiles in three large silo fields in the north. Work is underway on 30 additional silos in three mountainous regions in the east.

"Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many ICBMs as either Russia or the US by the turn of the decade," the SIPRI report states.

Even so, the number of nuclear warheads remains far below those held by Russia or the United States. China’s message, however, appears clear: The government intends to credibly deter other countries from a possible nuclear attack.

In Europe, France offers nuclear protection

In Western Europe, only the United Kingdom and France possess nuclear weapons. France has 290 nuclear warheads, which can be launched either from nuclear submarines or Rafale fighter jets. The government is steadily developing its nuclear forces and offers other European countries the possibility of benefiting from its nuclear umbrella.

Germany is not allowed to possess nuclear weapons of its own. This is stipulated in the Two Plus Four Treaty of 1990 on German reunification. Germany therefore relies on the US umbrella, with an estimated 20 US nuclear bombs stationed within the country.

"Nuclear sharing" is what NATO calls jointly organized deterrence involving US weapons. With President Donald Trump repeatedly casting doubt on the US’s commitment to NATO, Germany has recently begun talks with France on closer cooperation in nuclear deterrence.

This article was originally written in German.