Taliban and Russia cozy up to each other — why?

The acting defense minister in the Taliban regime, Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, stepped off a flight in Kabul last week to deliver a warning to Pakistan.

Islamabad, he said, would "soon no longer dare" to attack Afghan territory due to the military-technical cooperation agreement he had just signed in Moscow.

He also said the implementation of the agreement with Russia would begin shortly. 

At the same time, Yaqoob tried to downplay any international concerns about military cooperation between the regime and Moscow. The agreement, he insisted, was not a defense or security pact. It was focused on repairing and maintaining Russian-made weapons systems already in Afghanistan's arsenal, including helicopters and other aircraft.

He even suggested similar arrangements could be made with the United States, noting that American weapons had also been left in the wake of the NATO invasion of Afghanistan.

This dual message — deterrence toward Pakistan, reassurance toward the wider region — illustrates how both the Taliban regime and Russian President Vladimir Putin's government frame their budding relationship: Rather than being an ideological alliance, it is a pragmatic exchange in which both sides see immediate gains. 

What the weapons deal is and what it isn't 

The Russian government and the Taliban signed the military-technical cooperation agreement on May 27 on the sidelines of a security conference near Moscow. The full details have not been made public. 

Russia's special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, said the agreement focuses on repairing Russian-made equipment and could pave the way for future defense contracts. For now, he added, the main priority is restoring systems already in Afghanistan's possession. 

Soviet troops invaded Afghanistan in late 1979 and stayed in the country for a decade trying to keep a friendly regime afloat. Many of their weapons systems were left behind and survive to this day.

After 2001, the US and NATO also relied on Russian helicopters, particularly the Mi-17, to build Afghanistan's air force, in part because Afghan pilots and technicians were familiar with them and because they were considered suitable for the country's rugged terrain. 

Why the timing of the Russia-Taliban deal matters 

Yaqoob's remarks came amid heightened tensions with Pakistan, including cross-border shelling and air strikes inside Afghan territory. Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Taliban of sheltering militants from Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an allegation the Taliban deny. 

While the Kabul-based regime seeks to boost its military capabilities and send a signal to Pakistan, Russia seems to be interested in becoming a security factor as Western influence fades.

According to Russian state news agency TASS, Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu expressed opposition to any deployment of US or NATO bases and military infrastructure in Afghanistan or neighboring countries — language that fits Moscow's broader goal of keeping the region within a non-Western security framework. 

Russia's ties with Taliban 'pragmatic, interest-based' 

Abbas Basir, who served as minister in Afghanistan's previous government, describes the Taliban–Russia relationship as "pragmatic and interest-based," rather than a genuine political alliance. 

In his view, one of Russia's primary concerns is Islamic State Khorasan (ISKP) and the risk that the group could use Afghan territory to destabilize Central Asia and, ultimately, threaten Russia's internal security. Because the Taliban have fought ISKP, Basir argues Moscow sees them as a "relative security buffer."

The Taliban, meanwhile, gain regional political legitimacy and economic opportunities including trade, specifically energy and grain imports at a time of severe economic strain. Basir also notes that the Taliban are seeking diversified relations to avoid dethe pendence on one or two external patrons. 

Information blackout and competing narratives 

Bismillah Taban, a security and politics analyst, cautions that it is too early to draw firm conclusions about the agreement's content because both sides have a long record of restricting information. 

He argues the Taliban are also using the Moscow visit for domestic messaging, describing it as an attempt to extract maximum propaganda value and raise morale after Pakistani strikes weakened confidence within Taliban ranks. 

Taban also points to a second dynamic: After Yaqoob publicly amplified the significance of the agreement, Russian officials moved quickly to narrow expectations, emphasizing that current arrangements are limited to repairing and restoring equipment left behind in Afghanistan from the Soviet era. 

Russia looking south as Western pressure grows

Analysts say Russia's key interests in Afghanistan is still security, including limiting the flow of narcotics across Central Asia. Beyond that, Moscow's economic footprint in Afghanistan remains limited, making a long-term strategic commitment uncertain. 

For the Taliban, the calculus is more immediate. With Pakistan escalating pressure and their own military capabilities deteriorating, the Taliban need usable weapons systems and partners willing to provide maintenance. Experts also note that the newer, US-made equipment is difficult to sustain without spare parts and external support, while Russian-origin systems may be easier to keep operational if maintenance channels reopen. 

Former Afghan diplomat in Russia, Ghaus Jaanbaz, says the latest weapons' deal should not be seen as purely technical.

"It includes military and technical cooperation, but to a large extent, it has a political dimension," he told DW.

Jaanbaz points to Russia's role as the only country in the world to have officially recognized the current regime in Kabul. With Russia facing multiple challenges linked to the war in Ukraine and tensions with Western Europe, Jaanbaz says Central Asia and the corridor bordering Afghanistan has become even more sensitive for Moscow's security planning. "

"Afghanistan also borders these countries, and there is a possibility that threats could emerge via Afghanistan toward those countries and Russia, so Russia seeks to secure this route," he said. 

Islamists ready to embrace Moscow despite troubled past

Some analysts also see the Russia–Taliban rapprochement as part of a wider regional shift. 

Idrees Rahmani, an international relations researcher, argues Afghanistan has repeatedly been pulled into external power struggles because of structural economic weakness. Without a strong domestic economy, he says, governments tend to lean toward whichever side can keep the country afloat — only to realize later that the alignment comes with costs. 

He points to overlapping tensions, including the US-China rivalry and Russia's conflict with the West over the Ukraine war, as well as India–Pakistan standoff and wider Middle East dynamics , warning that Afghanistan risks being thrown "like a whirlwind" through shifting regional storms.

Russia's outreach to the Taliban is also striking in Afghanistan's historical context. The Soviet invasion of 1979 and the war that followed remain among the country's defining traumas, forcing millions to flee and reshaping Afghan society for decades.

That Moscow now presents itself as a security partner underscores how quickly geopolitical interests can reorder themselves across historical ruptures and how limited the role of history can be in contemporary power politics.

The irony is hard to miss: The Taliban movement rose from the post-Soviet wreckage and built part of its legitimacy on religious rhetoric against foreign "occupiers," and yet Mullah Yaqoob, the son of Taliban founder Mullah Omar, is now boasting about a weapons deal with the very power that once invaded Afghanistan.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic