What effect will the EU′s sanctions have on Belarus? | Europe | News and current affairs from around the continent | DW | 25.05.2021

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Europe

What effect will the EU's sanctions have on Belarus?

After Belarus diverted a Ryanair plane and arrested a dissident blogger, the EU was quick to impose new sanctions on Minsk. DW takes a look at the measures and what they entail.

The Ryanair plane with registration number SP-RSM, carrying opposition figure Raman Pratasevich which was traveling from Athens to Vilnius and was diverted to Minsk after a bomb threat

Following the diversion and subsequent arrest of Raman Pratasevich the EU was quick to impose new sanctions on Minsk

European Union leaders called Sunday's military interception of a Ryanair passenger plane and the subsequent arrest of an opposition blogger a "hijacking," an "attack on democracy" and an "international scandal."

After Belarusian authorities took Raman Pratasevich and his girlfriend, Sofia Sapega, into custody, the EU was uncharacteristically swift to slap new sanctions on Belarus. Monday's measures included a ban on Belarusian airlines using EU airspace or airports. 

Infografik Karte Flugroute von Ryanair 4978 EN

'Completely implausible'

Prior to his arrest, Raman Pratasevich, a known critic of authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, was traveling from Greece to Lithuania. Minsk ordered the commercial plane flying over its airspace to land, claiming a bomb was on board — an explanation German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called "completely implausible."

 

Belarusian state TV has since broadcast a video, showing Pratavesich with dark marks on his face, acknowledging his role in recent anti-government protests. The opposition says he was forced to film the statement. 

Raman Pratasevich speaks in a video with dark marks on his forehead

The opposition says Pratasevich was forced to record a statement saying he is healthy and that he organized mass protests against Lukashenko

When EU leaders met on Monday in Brussels, they called for the immediate release of Pratasevich and his girlfriend. They also unanimously agreed to hold Belarus accountable. 

"Lukashenko and his regime have to understand this will have severe consequences," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

But what are the consequences and what do they entail?

Restrictions on airspace

Since Belarus intercepted a flight between two EU countries, the 27-nation bloc also decided to hit back in the skies. It has banned Belarus' airlines from its airspace and airports, as well as urging EU-based plane carriers to avoid flying in Belarusian airspace.

Lufthansa, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines and Scandinavian Airlines are among the airline companies that have already started doing this.

Security officer inspects the grounded Ryanair plane with a dog

Belarus forced the passenger plane to land in Minsk

But such a move is largely symbolic and does not have any real effect on Lukashenko's politics, according to Dzianis Melyantsou of the Minsk Dialogue Council on International Relations. 

He says the measure could actually make Belarus more dependent on Russia as the restrictions could bankrupt the country's state airline — which could then be bought out by Russia. Melyantsou also observed that pro-European sentiment among Belarusians gets stronger the more they can travel to the EU.

"Restrictions that isolate the Belarusian people as opposed to the Belarusian government could turn Belarusians against the EU," said Melyantsou. "That's why these rushed decisions won't have any effect."

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrives at EU summit

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced new sanctions for Belarus

Investigation into forced plane diversion

EU leaders called on the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to investigate the plane diversion. The ICAO is a specialized UN agency that can issue standards and recommendations, but does not have any regulatory power.

Sanctions on individuals and businesses

Since October 2020, the EU has progressively been restricting more and more key political figures, including President Alexander Lukashenko, with measures like travel bans and asset freezes. They first came as a response to Belarus' crackdown on peaceful protesters.

With the arrest of Pratasevich, the bloc decided to add even more targets to its sanction list of 88 individuals and seven entities.

"There will be additional sanctions on individuals that are involved in the hijacking, but this time also on businesses and economic entities that are financing this regime," von der Leyen told reporters.

Watch video 02:33

EU imposes sanctions on Belarus after flight diversion

According to Pavel Usov, director of the Center for Political Analysis and Prognosis in Warsaw, these measures are necessary to signal to Lukashenko that he does not have a carte blanche to treat his citizens any way he wants. But in practice, they do not have much of an effect on him.

"Lukashenko is propagating terror in his country and abroad. In reality, neither sanctions nor international agreements will deter him," said Usov. "They won't necessarily lead to a quick change in the country, but these measures are imperative."

Billion-euro economic package is off the table

Von der Leyen also announced that the EU has a €3 billion ($3.6 billion) investment package ready for Belarus that it will now freeze until the country "turns democratic."

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