South Africa braces for anti-migrant protests

South Africais on edge in the days leading up to planned anti-migrant demonstrations on June 30, with authorities warning against unrest and preparing for possible violence. President Cyril Ramaphosa issued a firm message as tensions escalated nationwide: "We will not tolerate any attempts to destabilise the country by anyone, whether marching or otherwise," Ramaphosa said.

The protests have been called by groups including "March and March" and others campaigning against undocumented migration. These organizations have set an informal deadline for migrants without legal status to leave the country, raising fears of renewed xenophobic violence in a nation that has experienced repeated outbreaks since the end of apartheid in 1994.

Minister of Police Firoz Cachalia emphasized that while peaceful protest is protected under South Africa's constitution, any unlawful actions will be met with force. He said crime, intimidation, violence, destruction of property, and any attempt to undermine public safety will not be tolerated.

Government admits delayed response

Cachalia also acknowledged that authorities reacted too slowly to rising tensions and xenophobic rhetoric. "We have hesitated too long to speak out clearly on this issue. There is no reason why anyone should come to a demonstration with any object that could be used as a weapon," he said.

Recent weeks have seen a surge in attacks on foreign nationals. Vigilante groups, often linked to right-wing populist rhetoric, have raided neighborhoods, looted businesses owned by migrants, and intimidated those suspected of being foreigners. While these groups claim to target undocumented migrants, in practice, their actions frequently affect anyone perceived as an outsider, including people of African or Asian origin, regardless of their legal status.

Several African countries, including Nigeria, Ghana and Malawi, have been forced to evacuate their citizens.

Migration itself has grown steadily over decades. According to Statistics South Africa, migrants made up 2.1% of the population in 1996. By 2022, that figure had risen to 3.9%, or about 2.4 million people, including both documented and undocumented residents.

Is this a crisis of the government's own making?

Analysts point to deeper structural problems behind the unrest. Political commentator Tessa Dooms argues that the current crisis reflects longstanding governance failures. "The South African government has largely created this dilemma for itself," she told DW. President Ramaphosa on Friday reiterated the importance of regional cooperation, stressing that no country can prosper alone.

Dooms described a pattern in which authorities delay action on major challenges such as unemployment, public services, and poverty. "It ignores problems, tolerates corruption, allows decay to worsen, and only reacts once the situation has reached its peak," she explained.

According to her, the government underestimated movements such as "March and March" and "Operation Dudula," particularly their ability to mobilize across diverse social groups. "They [government] are unprepared; they are misanalyzing the problem. They believe it is merely an anti-migrant movement, whereas in reality, migration is being offered as a solution for people facing a multitude of other crises," Dooms added.

High youth unemployment, limited access to healthcare and education, and widening inequality have left many communities frustrated. For some, anti-migrant activism offers a sense of being heard. "So it's not that people are xenophobic, but rather that they see this particular movement as a place where they can be heard and where they can find a simple solution to complex problems," Dooms said, adding that the government has failed to address these grievances and is "in no way prepared to deal with this on June 30."

Security measures and public distrust

In response, authorities are mobilizing police forces and even hiring private security firms to manage potential unrest. The cost of these measures is expected to reach 600 million rand (€32 million, $36 million), reflecting the scale of the anticipated challenge.

However, skepticism about the effectiveness of such measures is widespread. Dooms argues that enforcing human rightsrequires functioning law enforcement institutions, not just warnings. "For that, they need law enforcement agencies," she said, criticizing the lack of prosecutions and accountability. "All of this is happening in a climate where the country's top police officials sit at the Madlanga Commission."

This commission, established in July 2025 and named after Judge Mbuyiseli Madlanga, is investigatingallegations of corruption, political interference and infiltration by organized crime within the police.

Trust in law enforcement remains low. Fredson Guilengue of the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation notes that migrants often see police as part of the problem. "The South African police are still viewed by the victims of these attacks as a xenophobic institution," he told DW. "I don't see any changes."

He also criticized the government's reactive approach: "As long as the leaders of these movements don't feel the full force of the law, they won't stop intimidating immigrants."

Policy failures and deeper inequalities

Beyond policing, systemic issues in migration management are also fueling tensions. Guilengue points to corruption and inefficiency in immigration systems, which contribute to public frustration and create opportunities for vigilante action.

He warned that recent government actions—such as increased deportations, workplace inspections, and fines for employing undocumented migrants—risk reinforcing anti-foreigner narratives. "Numerous political changes have been implemented … which essentially means that the government agrees with the narrative that South Africa is under attack by foreigners," he said

Analysts argue that addressing xenophobiarequires tackling its root causes. Youth unemployment remains stubbornly high. Nearly 61% of young South Africans were unemployed in early 2026, while overall unemployment stood at 32.7%.

For Dooms, solutions must involve local communities and policymakers alike. "You can engage them in a conversation about the real problems they face," she said, emphasizing dialogue over confrontation.

As South Africa approaches June 30, the situation highlights not only tensions over migration but also deeper economic and political challenges that remain unresolved.

This article was originally written in German