How much sway does Trump have over Hungarian voters?

Get out and vote for Viktor Orban, US President Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform in all caps ahead of the national elections in Hungary as campaigning reached the final stretch. 

This Sunday, Hungarians will decide Orban's fate at the ballot box. The sitting prime minister has blocked as much European aid to Ukraine as he could, is openly critical of the European Union (EU) that Hungary is a part of, and has ingratiated himself with US President Donald Trump. He has also presented himself as MAGA's man in Europe. 

"Make Europe great again!" Orban said, copying a Trump campaign slogan (Make America Great Again) that turned into a conservative movement which now seeks to align itself more firmly with like-minded anti-immigrant groups in Europe. 

Orban has also used the slogan "MAGA there, MEGA here," as he portrays himself as the European leader who can build a transnational far-right alliance. 

The outcome of the Hungarian election will show whether the camaraderie between Orban and Trump worked at the hustings. The voters will reveal not just what they thought of Orban's governance, but also whether Donald Trump has the kind of sway needed to deliver on an international far-right project.  

The Trump administration's national security strategyreleased in 2025 warned against "civilizational erasure" in Europe and said that "the larger issues facing Europe include activities of the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty," but also, "migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife." 

It also called for cultivating resistance against a mostly liberal continent. Experts say Trump and MAGA's support for Orban must be seen in that context. 

Orban is "central to Trumpism, more important than almost any American" in the [MAGA] movement, historian Timothy Snyder wrote on X. 

 

Will Trump's endorsement help Orban?  

But can Trump's endorsement and a last-minute visit from Vice President JD Vance boost Orban's numbers and, with that, strengthen the European far-right? 

"For Trump and Vance, Orban must win, because there must only be one inevitable path of history, towards right-wing oligarchy and the end of democracy," Sydner wrote. "When Orban loses," he added, "that exposes the weaknesses of MAGA." 

Observers say Orban's Fidesz party has been trailing, while the opposition group led by Peter Magyar has  maintained a double-digit lead in most polls over the year.

"The polls are not looking good for PM Orban," Zsuzsanna Vegh, a political analyst with the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), told DW. "That indicates the opposition can win this election, absent massive manipulation." 

"Vance's visit is preaching to the choir — those who already support Orban," she said. 

It was mostly intended to deliver a message to other European hard-right political groups that Trump and the MAGA movement both back the Hungarian far-right, and that there is an ideological interest in expanding an illiberal Europe, Vegh added. 

At the rally he visited a few days ago during his Hungary trip, Vance held his phone to the mic so Trump could reiterate his support to a cheering crowd of mostly Orban supporters.

"I'm a big fan of Viktor. I'm with him all the way. The United States is with him all the way," Trump said. 

However, some experts doubt whether even such blatant support can improve Orban's prospects. The fact that Trump supports Orban has been public knowledge for a while and won't boost his numbers any further, Vegh said. 

"Vance's visit and Trump's support may be useful for mobilizing those who already support Orban to come out and cast their vote," she said. "But it is unlikely to persuade undecided voters to vote for Orban. They care about the cost of living, and Vance's visit doesn't help with that, nor does Trump's support."  

Is a 'Trumpist' right on a rise in Europe? 

In June, pro-Trump nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by Poland's far-right Law and Justice party (PiS), narrowly won the presidential election. 

Shortly before the election Nawrocki had met Trump at the White House, which was seen as a sign of Trump's support. Nawrocki later told Polish media that Trump expected him to win and widely advertised a photograph of a handshake with Trump during the election campaign. 

Analysts said Nawrocki's victory illustrated the rise of the populist, "Trumpist" right in central and eastern Europe. 

However, in Romania, far-right candidate George Simion was unsuccessful in winning the presidential race despite aligning himself with Trump and wearing Trump baseball caps. Not even drawing a link between himself and MAGA on the podcast of former Trump adviser Steve Bannon helped. 

Christian Andrei, a Romanian political consultant with the Political Rating Agency, enumerated various reasons for Simion's failure in the Romanian election. He said that perhaps Simion failed to establish a real connection with Trump, unlike Orban.

But Andrei also said that in any case "the idea of Trump's endorsement was not the most important thing" for the far-right voter base. "These people were more upset with the old political order than seeking better ties with a US president."

"In Romania, favorability for US presidents is pretty high and all parties need to have good relations with the US," Andrei said. "So it wasn't like Simion was offering anything special." 

Experts said while there is no definite evidence yet that links ties with Trump to electoral failure or success, Trump's popularity in the European far-right appears to be waning as many leaders increasingly criticize the US president. 

A rift between Trump and the European far-right? 

The Trump administration's new national security startegy, released in fall 2025, warned against Europe's current — liberal — trajectory and insinuated it would prop-up far-right groups. 

Vance's visit to Hungary and Trump's support for Orban, Vegh said, is part of that "civilizational mission." 

"Trump and Vance see the European far-right parties as allies against the EU, which they view as a liberal institution that in their view is causing European civilization to decay," she said. That is one reason the current US administration wants to "support parties that argue against the EU and in favor of more sovereignty." 

But Trump's own policies might have pushed away parts of the European far right. 

"Trump's policy on tariffs, war on Iran, previous intervention in Venezuela, threat to Greenland — these actions were not seen as unequivocally positive by European far-right forces, and may even backfire" for any party or candidate seen overtly close to Trump, said Vegh. 

The rift was visible when Trump threatened to annex Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory. 

Alice Weidel, the co-leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), who hailed the US national security strategy as a "conservative renaissance" in Europe, said Trump had "violated a fundamental campaign promise — not to interfere in other countries." 

Nigel Farage, the leader of the populist Reform UK party described it as a "very hostile act." 

Jordan Bardella, the president of France's far-right National Rally, who had described Trump as "a wind of freedom," called it "a direct challenge to the sovereignty of a European country," and advocated the strongest reaction in "self-defense." 

Orban, however, skirted the question, describing it as an "in-house issue" to avoid criticizing Trump. Yet it remains to be seen if that will help him at the ballot box. 

According to a recent poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), since Trump came to power the US has lost influence in Europe. The poll says only 16% of EU citizens see the US as an ally, while 20% see it as an enemy or a rival. 

Edited by: Carla Bleiker