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PoliticsGermany

German election: CDU, Merz drop in poll after AfD vote

Kate Hairsine with dpa, Reuters
February 4, 2025

Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz and his conservatives slump in poll after far-right backing for migration vote.

https://p.dw.com/p/4q1oq
A protester holds a placard saying: Vote yes. #AfD no
The CDU/CSU alliance has dropped in the polls after cooperating with the far-right AfD in parliamentImage: Paul-Philipp Braun/epd/IMAGO IMAGES

Support for Germany's center right alliance of the CDU and CSU parties has dropped two points to 28% ahead of elections on February 23, a poll showed on Tuesday.

The slide in popularity comes after the CDU's candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, used the backing of the far-right to pass a non-binding resolution on border policy last week. This was a a historic breach of taboo.

This is the lowest result since October 2023 for the opposition CDU, which had been leading in the polls for months.

The survey by the Forsa research institute shows the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, remains unchanged in second place at 20%.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats are holding steady at 16%, while the Greens gained one point to 15%.

Merz falls in chancellor approval ratings

Merz's chancellor approval ratings also fell three points to 22%.

That means he is now on a par with Green Party chancellor candidate Robert Habeck.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz and AfD chancellor candidate Alice Weidel remained stable on 16%.

The Forsa poll, for the broadcaster RTL/ntv, was taken between January 28 and February 3, a period that saw nationwide protests against Merz's decision to cooperate with the far-right.

Merz suffered a major political defeat late last week when his immigration bill, again backed by the far right, was rejected by parliament.

Over 150,000 people rally against conservatives in Berlin

However, in a weekend interview with DW, Merz attempted to distance himself and his party from the far-right.

"My message was always very clear: we are not working with that [AfD] party. That wasn't the case last week, and it won't be the case this week, next week, or the week after that," he told DW.

Fight to make the parliamentary threshold

Three parties are fighting to reach the 5% threshold usually needed to enter the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament.

The socialist Left Party is on 5% for the first time in the Forsa poll since August 2023, with the neoliberal Free Democrats and the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance on 4%.

A different poll released on Monday found the CDU/CSU unchanged on 30%, with the AfD on 22%. It was conducted by the INSA Institute for the Bild newspaper.

Germany goes to the polls on February 23 in snap elections following the collapse of Scholz's three-party coalition in November 2023.

Edited by: Louis Oelofse

Kate Hairsine Australian-born journalist and senior editor who mainly focuses on Africa.