Kosovo general election: the cost of political polarization

The current election campaign in Kosovo is marked not only by the usual competition between rival political parties, but also by the disintegration of one of the most important political alliances in the country in recent years, namely that of Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who has led the government for the past six years, and former President Vjosa Osmani.

Osmani was already a political ally of Albin Kurti and had the prime minister's support when she was elected president by the parliament of Kosovo in 2021.

At the time, the two were seen as a motor for change and the fight against corruption in Kosovo. Now, they are rivals.

No consensus in parliament

When Osmani's term came to an end earlier this year, Kurti did not back her for a second term.

Kurti has said that "the president should be a unifying and representative figure," and that, in his view, Osmani has political ambitions to become involved in a political party and seek direct support from voters.

Instead, the prime minister put forward candidates from his own party, Vetevendosje. But opposition lawmakers did not rally behind these candidates.

Sunday's snap general election — Kosovo's third in just under 16 months — was triggered when Kosovo's parliament in April failed for the second time to elect a new president.

Osmani is now running for parliament as a candidate for her former party, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK).

Speaking at an election campaign rally, she told supporters "You vote to decide whether Kosovo will be a state of its citizens or a state of only one man."

Why did the Kurti-Osmani alliance sour?

"Kurti and Osmani are politicians with opposing ideological orientations, who were united for the political synergy of the moment, being perceived by citizens as the hope of change, especially against corruption," political analyst and journalism professor Arben Fetoshi told DW.

Fetoshi went on to say that although the two differed on foreign policy and the subject of coordination with international partners, they did not have any major clashes during the four-year term of Kurti's government.

"Therefore, their rivalry in the current race mainly stems from the lack of support for Osmani's second mandate but does not exclude the personal dimension and ideological orientation of each," he said.

Political stalemate

Analysts say that for a country that is still trying to consolidate democratic institutions, move closer to the EU and advance dialogue with neighboring Serbia, the seemingly endless cycle of elections in Kosovo highlights another major problem, namely the inability of its political class to build institutional compromise.

Kurti's Vetevendosje has won several elections since 2021, most recently getting 51% of the vote in the last election on December 28, about 30 percentage points ahead of its nearest rival, the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK). This has given Kurti a significant advantage over his political rivals.

Political scientist Artan Muhaxhiri says that the large electoral gap between Kurti's Vetevendosje and opposition parties has created a new political imbalance in which neither side is able to push through solutions.

He cautions that if the results of this election do not produce major changes, the current stalemate may continue.

Impact on foreign relations

The consequences of the current situation are not limited to domestic politics.

Relations between Kurti's government and Western partners have been difficult in recent years, particularly due to tensions in northern Kosovo, where over 90% of the population are Kosovo Serbs, and the fact that the Kurti government has taken unilateral steps there despite criticism from both Washington and Brussels.

These actions include closing parallel Serbian structures operating in Serb-inhabited areas of Kosovo, such as Serbian post offices, offices that issue various Serbian documents for Kosovo Serb citizens and municipal facilities.

As a result, Kosovo has faced punitive measures from the EU and a noticeable cooling of relations with some of its allies.

Kosovo, Serbia and the EU

Kosovo is the only Balkan country that still does not have EU candidate status.

EU officials have repeatedly stated that Kosovo's European integration depends on the success of dialogue with Serbia to improve both bilateral relations and the lives of citizens in both countries.

Artan Muhaxhiri confirms this, adding "Naively ignoring this position only deepens the current stagnation, kicking away hundreds of millions in financial injections [of support from the EU] and numerous opportunities for political and economic recovery."

There have also been disagreements about the way the dialogue with Serbia is managed.

However, Arben Fetoshi says that the deadlock in the dialogue with Serbia, which was mediated by the EU, cannot be understood without taking into account Serbia's approach in this process.

"The deadlocks in the Brussels dialogue have another dimension due to Serbia's aggressive approach and expansionist goals. [Serbia's] hybrid interference in Kosovo — especially in elections — aims to control the representation of the Serb community in order to continue using it as an instrument against Kosovo," he said, adding that the EU's neutrality in the process of normalization between the two neighbors has not been a success.

Escalation of political rhetoric

Another feature of the June 7 election campaign is the hardening of political language — not only at election rallies but also on social media.

Alban Zeneli, professor of journalism at the University of Pristina, told DW that this shift toward harsher language is being used as an electoral tool.

"Politicians are using this language, which is extremely polarizing and includes insults, labeling and simplifications, as an electoral tactic to 'divide and rule.' In this way, they polarize and divide society in order to gain more support," he told DW.

"This language has serious consequences for society, also dividing it on issues that are not very political, such as the economy, security and education policies," he said.

Zeneli went on to say that after almost two years of national and local election campaigns, the rhetoric has escalated, resulting in "physical clashes, threats and online violence against political opponents."

What Kosovo needs from this election

Analysts who spoke to DW agreed that despite the parties' promises of economic development, wage increases or strategic investment, a key question in this election campaign is still whether Kosovo's politicians are ready to build the culture of compromise they currently lack.

But even more important than that is the question as to whether Sunday's election will finally give Kosovo a political elite capable of governing, cooperating and returning the country to the path of reform, dialogue and European integration.

Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan