Has Pakistan outplayed India in Iran war diplomacy?

The US-Israel war with Iran has resulted in mounting fuel shortages in India, its rupee currency is under pressure, and millions of Indians working in the Gulf are watching events unfold with growing anxiety.

However, one month into the conflict, it is Pakistan, not India, that is positioning itself as a mediator. 

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said earlier this week that Islamabad will soon host talks between the US and Iran, although neither Washington nor Tehran have yet confirmed Pakistan's diplomatic role. 

By contrast, India has stuck to measured messaging. It has kept its head down and urged restraint, working quiet channels and prioritizing energy security and the safety of its diaspora.

Opposition turns up the heat on Modi

However, the government's stance has also been criticized by the opposition. 

Rahul Gandhi, leader of India's opposition Congress party, called New Delhi's foreign policy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi a "universal joke." 

Congress lawmaker Jairam Ramesh also criticized Modi's policies.

He posted on X that, following India's "undoubted military successes" in its action against Pakistan during Operation Sindoor in May 2025, "Pakistan's diplomatic engagement and narrative management has been markedly superior to that of the Modi government." 

Experts point out that internationally, Islamabad's role gives it immediate visibility and relevance, particularly in Washington, by positioning itself as a useful conduit at a time of high tension.

India maintains middle ground  

Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, president of Mantraya, an independent research forum, said Modi's government has been portraying the conflict as a distant war that does not require intervention from India.

"This perspective contradicts earlier efforts to position India as a potential mediator in the Ukraine war, and also, the enormous impact the Iran war has already had on India's energy security," D'Souza told DW.

"While this stance may not have impacted Modi's popularity at home, a prolonged conflict with economic consequences for India will likely influence the government's approval ratings," she said.

D'Souza added that New Delhi's lack of neutrality limits its ability to act as a mediator and undercuts its claim of strategic autonomy.

Harsh Pant, head of the strategic studies program at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), a New Delhi think tank, said much will depend on how long the war lasts. 

"If the crisis continues, if the pressure on India grows, and if the government cannot handle that domestically, then there will be an effect on the Modi government," he told DW. 

"India's initial response showed solidarity with those Arab states, where relations have been growing and are very serious. India must protect its equity there," he added. 

India doesn't seek mediator role

Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has said that India would not act as a "go-between" like Pakistan in the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran.

Jaishankar's comments counter suggestions that India should emulate Pakistan's role, underlining that New Delhi sees itself as pursuing an independent foreign policy and not acting as a middleman in conflicts driven by others. 

Modi stated that while the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions pose a "worrisome" challenge to energy security, the government is ensuring stable domestic supplies by utilizing strategic reserves, diversifying imports across 41 countries, and engaging in diplomatic de-escalation efforts.

Ajay Bisaria, a former high commissioner to Pakistan, said India faces no immediate domestic political fallout, but policy experts worry the country appears overly cautious and is not actively influencing events, especially compared to Pakistan's more assertive approach.

"Among strategic and policy circles, there is a quiet recognition that India is not shaping outcomes in a region where it has significant stakes," Bisaria told DW.

"The contrast with Pakistan's visible role as a go-between may raise questions about whether New Delhi is being overly cautious at a moment of geopolitical flux."

Pakistan's window as a broker 

Yet, Bisaria stressed that Pakistan's role should not be overstated.

"Pakistan's utility lies in tactical facilitation. India's strength lies in its balance, multi-alignment, and long-term strategic autonomy. The challenge for New Delhi is to convert this posture into visible influence when the diplomatic window opens," he added.

"It is acting as a conduit, not a power broker. This is consistent with past patterns. Islamabad has historically facilitated US backchannel diplomacy, from the opening to China in 1971 to the Iran hostage crisis in 1981," said Bisaria.

According to the former diplomat, what Pakistan gains is visibility and relevance in Washington at a time when India has been sitting on the sidelines.

"That may translate into short-term diplomatic leverage or goodwill. But structurally, the balance with India remains unchanged. India's global weight, economic, strategic, and diplomatic far exceeds that of Pakistan's," he added.

Edited by: Keith Walker