Could a 'fascist' soon head a German state government?

The revelation this month of secret plans by politicians from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and right-wing extremists to expel migrants has led an increasing number of political scientists and Holocaust survivors to suggest banning the party on the grounds that it has become radicalized.

After years in the opposition, AfD members themselves believe that the party is on the verge of a breakthrough. According to opinion polls, it is set for major success in local, state and European Parliament elections.

In eastern Germany, the party is well ahead of its opponents, polling at over 30%.  AfD members have set their sights on the premiership of the small state of Thuringia in 2024.

The candidate they have in mind, Björn Höcke, is particularly radical. 

Höcke, the chairman of the AfD parliamentary group in the state parliament, is a former high school teacher and has in the past marched alongside neo-Nazis.

In a letter in 2015, the AfD Executive Board accused Höcke of publishing writings under the pseudonym "Landolf Ladig" that were "extremely close to National Socialism." Höcke denied that he had done so, but refused to sign an affidavit stating as much. 

In 2017, the AfD tried to expel Höcke without success. The party's Federal Executive Committee started expulsion proceedings against him following his controversial speech at a party event in Dresden where he criticized Germany's remembrance of the Holocaust. He called the Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe in Berlin a "monument of shame" and added: "These stupid politics of coming to grips with the past cripple us — we need nothing other than a 180-degree reversal on the politics of remembrance." The Thuringian Court of Arbitration rejected the expulsion.

Since then, the party has become radicalized and is more aligned with Höcke's positions. His supporters are shaping the party's platform. 

Ascendant German right 

Since the murderous rule of the National Socialists under Adolf Hitler from 1933 to 1945, any ideological or symbolic invocation of Nazi values has been considered out of bounds in Germany. During the Nazi era, Germans murdered over six million Jews and were responsible for the deadliest conflict in world history, World War Two.

Today, numerous AfD figures have attracted attention for statements reminiscent of National Socialism. In 2019, a German court ruled that Björn Höcke can legally be described as a "fascist," based on a "verifiable factual basis." 

Now, Höcke could become the first far-right politician in postwar Germany to be elected head of government in one of the 16 federal states. That office has considerable political power: Premiers are largely responsible for the education and media policy of their state and decide on the details of executing the federal government's asylum policy. The AfD has long been calling for a radical change of course in asylum and immigration rules. 

Attacking public media 

At an AfD meeting in November, Höcke promised far-reaching measures if he were elected. He said: "We will stop the fight against the right!” — and was cheered by supporters. Höcke also wants to make major changes to public media: "What will happen if Höcke becomes state premier? Will he cancel the state media contracts? Yes, that's what Höcke will do! Yes!" he shouted to more applause from his AfD members.

After years of critical reporting, the AfD has called for the abolition or restructuring of public broadcasting in Germany. Inspired by former US President Donald Trump, the AfD relies on so-called "alternative media" and disseminates its policies via its own far-reaching party channels on social media. 

In December, the legal analysis website Verfassungsblog (Constitution Blog) outlined just how realistic the scenario of an AfD state premier might be.

According to its analysis, the relatively low-profile office of state parliament president could be key. In Germany, the job usually goes to the most successful party in state elections. And in Thuringia, the AfD is clearly ahead in opinion polls. This means that it has a legitimate chance of winning this office.  

"The damage that an authoritarian populist party that holds this office could do to democracy as a whole is immense," the Verfassungsblog warned. This is because the president of the state parliament organizes parliamentary procedures. 

If the AfD were to emerge as the strongest party in Thuringia as predicted — with about 35% of the vote, no less — lawmakers could put Björn Höcke forward as their candidate for head of government. Höcke would likely fail to get over 50% support in the first two rounds of voting if all other parties vote against him.

But, in the third round of voting, a simple majority would suffice.

The only hope for the other parties would be to put their differences aside and team up in an unusual alliance to name a joint candidate. For that, the conservative Christian Democrats and the Socialist Left Party would have to work together after years of bitterness and strife that have marred state politics in Thuringia. 

No AfD ban — but a Höcke ban?

In January 2024, anti-far-right activists launched a petition calling on the German government to file an application with the Federal Constitutional Court to forfeit certain fundamental rights of the Thuringian AfD leader.

This would curtail his freedom of expression or freedom of assembly. The court could also revoke the right to vote and the right to be elected — and the ability to hold public office. If its lead candidate Björn Höcke were affected, the AfD in Thuringia could be severely affected.

This article was originally written in German.

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