Will alleged crime ties damage Serbia's ruling party?

When Belgrade Police Chief Veselin Milic allegedly tried to broker peace between two rival underworld figures — Sasa Vukovic and Aleksandar Nesovic — at an upmarket restaurant in one of the Serbian capital's wealthiest neighborhoods on May 12, the meeting ended in bloodshed.

According to prosecutors' initial account, Vukovic shot Nesovic at least ten times. Nesovic's body was discovered several days later, buried inside a barrel outside Belgrade.

Investigators initially alleged that Milic had helped cover up the crime.

The case unfolded in mid-May and quickly dominated headlines in Serbia.

For many Serbs, the most disturbing question was why the head of the country's largest police department was meeting two prominent figures from the criminal underworld in the first place.

For Stevan Dojcinovic, editor-in-chief of the investigative outlet KRIK, however, the case itself is not that remarkable.

"The fact that a police chief is linked to organized crime and allegedly involved in criminal activity is, unfortunately, nothing new in Serbia," Dojcinovic told DW. "We've seen this pattern repeatedly over the years."

Shifting alliances

Stevan Dojcinovic has spent years investigating the ties between organized crime, state institutions and Serbia's ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

In his view, the relationship goes far beyond isolated cases of corruption.

"The Serbian state has become deeply entangled with organized crime," he said. "The ruling party and key figures around President Aleksandar Vucic cooperate with different criminal groups depending on political interests and circumstances."

According to Dojcinovic, those shifting alliances have helped fuel Serbia's underworld wars. More than 100 people have been killed in gang-related assassinations over the past decade, many of them in broad daylight and in public places.

That is why, he says, the latest killing was not unusual.

"It became a major story because it suited certain factions within the ruling party," said Dojcinovic. "Different factions within the party have cultivated relationships with different criminal groups. Those criminal groups are now at war with one another — and so are the political interests behind them."

A decade of evidence

Over the past decade, allegations about ties between Serbia's political leadership and organized crime have been reinforced by court proceedings, witness testimony, encrypted Sky and WhatsApp communications, leaked audio recordings and years of investigative reporting.

According to Branko Cecen, one of Serbia's most prominent investigative journalists, the relationship between the ruling SNS and the criminal underworld dates back to the very beginning of Aleksandar Vucic's rule.

"People with well-documented criminal backgrounds, such as Zvonko Veselinovic and Milan Radoicic [businessmen from northern Kosovo], suddenly became major beneficiaries of state contracts and increasingly influential figures," he said. "Over the years, they kept reappearing as key partners of the authorities."

One of the clearest examples emerged from the investigation into Veljko Belivuk, the alleged leader of one of Serbia's most notorious organized crime groups, whose members are on trial for a series of murders, kidnappings and drug trafficking offenses.

According to KRIK's courtroom reports, Belivuk told prosecutors that he had decided "to tell all" about his group's relationship with President Aleksandar Vucic, then-Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin, Vucic's brother and other officials "who asked us for favors and now pretend they don't know us."

Dojcinovic also points to WhatsApp messages recovered from Belivuk's phone after his 2016 arrest, which he says revealed a chain of communication.

"Belivuk sought approval from Nenad Vuckovic, a senior Gendarmerie officer. Vuckovic referred to approvals from Dijana Hrkalovic, then the second-highest official in the Interior Ministry. She, in turn, referred to approvals from the 'small chief' — apparently the interior minister — and the 'big chief', who was apparently President Vucic," Dojcinovic explained.

Another piece of evidence emerged in 2023, when KRIK published an audio recording in which Vuckovic can allegedly be heard leading a meeting of a criminal group, discussing criminal operations and boasting that his network had "the entire police in its hands."

A 'mutually beneficial arrangement'

Both Dojcinovic and Cecen say that the relationship between the Serbian state and organized crime is not simply one of corruption, but a mutually beneficial arrangement: They say the state provides protection, while criminal groups provide services.

During the student-led anti-government protests that have swept Serbia for almost two years, investigative journalists identified members of criminal groups among men who attacked peaceful demonstrators.

Organized crime figures have also long been linked to football hooligan groups that control stadium terraces and fan organizations, helping ensure that anti-Vucic chants are kept to a minimum.

"But the state doesn't protect drug cartels simply to have a few dozen men available to attack protesters," said Dojcinovic. "People within the state profit from it — that is the main motivation. But once that relationship exists, criminal groups can also be called upon whenever they're needed, whether on the streets or in the stadiums."

Why are no state figures facing consequences?

Despite years of investigations, court proceedings and mounting evidence, almost none of Serbia's major organized crime cases has resulted in political accountability.

According to Dojcinovic, prosecutors have used encrypted Sky communications to prosecute gang members while steering clear of politically sensitive leads.

"They use Sky messages against criminals," he says. "But they avoid the parts that implicate politicians or senior state officials. As a result, the people at the top remain untouched."

Serbian officials reject allegations of links between the state and organized crime, insisting that the government has waged an uncompromising fight against criminal groups. But according to Branko Cecen, it's only the rhetoric that's tough.

"When the authorities have to arrest someone, they do. But once an investigation gets too close to people within the system, the story begins to unravel," he told DW.

The political cost

But the walls would appear to be closing in. As anti-government protests continue unabated across Serbia and enter their 20th month, the pressure on President Aleksandar Vucic is growing.

"People are demanding the rule of law, functioning institutions and respect for basic civil rights," Cecen says.

He believes the issue is beginning to erode support even among voters who are not part of the opposition.

"It is one thing [for businessmen] to make money under Aleksandar Vucic's system," Cecen says. "It's something entirely different to feel helpless in the face of organized crime and realize that the police cannot protect you."

Vucic announced on Saturday that he would be standing down as president within weeks. However, although he has repeatedly hinted that early elections are imminent, no date has as yet been announced.

Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan