UK Economist Intelligence Unit: Trump is a major global risk | News | DW | 17.03.2016
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UK Economist Intelligence Unit: Trump is a major global risk

Donald Trump's firebrand attitudes "would be a potent recruitment tool" for the Jihadists and could lead the US into a trade war, British research group EIU said. The group does not expect Trump to win the US election.

The forecasters ranked Donald Trump as level 12 threat on a 1 to 20 scale in their Global Risk assessment on Wednesday, on par with jihadist terrorism destabilizing global economy.

The assessment is conducted by members of the British-based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), which is loosely associated with the London-based Economist magazine.

In comparison, EIU ranked a possible armed clash in the South China Sea as a level-8 threat. The top listed threat is a sharp economic downturn in China, reaching the maximum ranking of 20.

Feeding the fire in the Middle East

The group notes that the Republican front-runner has "given very few details of his policies" and that they "tend to be prone to constant revision." However, his negative attitude towards international trade agreements and labeling China as a "currency manipulator" already became apparent, researches say.

"In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war," the EIU said on their website.

The group also notes that Trump has advocated a land incursion into Syria and attacking terrorist' families.

"His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond," the statement adds.

Face-off with Clinton

In conclusion, the group said that Trump was expected to lose against his most likely rival Hillary Clinton, but warned of factors that could change the outcome, such as "a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn."

Trump is a leading candidate in the US Republican primaries, fighting a three way battle for the nomination with Ohio Governor John Kasich and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.

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