The 463,723 party members of the Social Democrats (SPD) have particularly important pieces of mail in their letterboxes — ballots asking them to decide on the coalition deal the SPD leadership hammered out with Chancellor Merkel's conservatives earlier this month.
The SPD rank-and-file have until March 2 to submit their votes, and the result is expected to be announced soon thereafter.
Read more: Future German government under Merkel no laughing matter on political roast day
The vote is an all-or-nothing affair. If the SPD membership gives the thumbs up, Germany finally gets a new government — six months after the national election last September. If the members say no, the result will either be fresh elections or an uneasy attempt by Merkel to lead a minority government — in any case, further political uncertainty.
Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will convene for a party conference in Berlin on February 26, where delegates will be asked to approve the coalition. A clear majority for the deal is expected. Yet SPD approval is not a given. In the past, the SPD membership has approved deals with Merkel by wide margins, but this vote is likely to be very tight.
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The SPD's year of turmoil
January 2017: 'Schulz effect' sees the SPD flying in the polls
The SPD appeared to have struck gold when it nominated Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, to challenge Angela Merkel for chancellor in the 2017 elections. In what came to be dubbed as the "Schulz effect," the SPD's shake-up at the top saw the party surge in the opinion polls to up to 33 percent, neck-and-neck with Merkel's conservatives.
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The SPD's year of turmoil
May 2017: SPD loses two state elections in a week. First Schleswig-Holstein ...
By May, however, the Schulz effect had faded. If the SPD wanted to prove it was a serious contender for September's federal election, it needed to retain its place at the helm of two key state governments. The first state election in Schleswig-Holstein, however, saw the CDU record an "easy" victory, winning by five points. The CDU went on to form a coalition with the Greens and Free Democrats.
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The SPD's year of turmoil
... Then its NRW stronghold
Things went from bad to worse a week later, when Merkel's party defeated the SPD in their stronghold in North Rhine-Westphalia. The SPD had ruled NRW for 46 of the past 51 years. However, it only picked up 31 percent of the vote this time, seven points lower than in 2012. Schulz described the defeat as "crushing," while outgoing state premier Hannelore Kraft resigned as state SPD party chief.
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The SPD's year of turmoil
September 2017: Lackluster election debate
Come September, with the federal election just weeks away, some pundits still gave Schulz half a chance of clinching the chancellery. However, the televised election debate between the two candidates exposed the effects of a grand coaltion. The two leaders seemed happy to agree with the other's proposals, rather than have a debate. And yet viewers still saw Merkel as the more credible candidate.
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The SPD's year of turmoil
September 2017: Germany decides — SPD suffers worst result in post-war era
In its worst election showing since World War II, the SPD scraped just over 20 percent of the vote. It would claim just 40 seats in the Bundestag, 40 fewer than before. Schulz, however, vowed to stay on and lead the party in opposition. The move was widely welcomed by the party's rank and file. It was time for a much-needed recharge and reappraisal.
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The SPD's year of turmoil
December 2017: GroKo after all
After talks to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP collapsed in November, Merkel had no choice but to turn to Schulz to form a governing coalition. After much "umming" and "ahing," the SPD leadership decided to enter preliminary talks with the conservatives. Well aware that the move would be unpopular with many in the party, Schulz said the party's 460,000 would get the final say.
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The SPD's year of turmoil
January 2018: SPD balks at grand coalition blueprint
However, no sooner had Schulz agreed on a preliminary deal then senior figures in SPD demanded an extensive overhaul. Schulz's failure to prevent a migration cap, establish a "citizens' insurance" scheme and abolish fixed employee contracts raised serious doubts whether party officials would agree to proceed to formal talks.
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The SPD's year of turmoil
January 2018: The start of a revolt?
Ahead of a party conference that would see SPD members vote on the preliminary coalition plan, the movement against another grand coalition began to gather heavy steam. The face of this grassroots revolt was SPD youth wing head Kevin Kühnert. In a series of impassioned speeches, the 28-year-old didn't just win the backing of youngsters, but convinced several senior figures as well.
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The SPD's year of turmoil
January 2018: Delegates approve preliminary coalition deal
Despite the heavy backlash, SPD delegates still approved the coalition deal. Of the votes, 362 were in favor of talks compared with 279 against. In a bid to shore up support, then-party leader Schulz said there would be "tough negotiations" with Merkel's conservatives. But that didn't stop critics from accusing Schulz of making concessions to Merkel.
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The SPD's year of turmoil
February 2018: SPD takes finance ministry
After the announcement of a coalition agreement, media reports claimed that the finance ministry had been given to the SPD, marking what some consider a major victory for the center-left party. The SPD's Olaf Scholz, the popular mayor of Hamburg, was reportedly tapped to head the ministry. If it proves true, it will be the first time in almost nine years that the SPD controls it.
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The SPD's year of turmoil
February 2018: Spat with Gabriel
In early February, tensions inside the SPD reached a fever-pitch. Gabriel told German media that Schulz didn't appreciate the job he had done as foreign minister. Days before, Schulz had signaled his desire to lead the foreign ministry. "The only thing left is remorse over how disrespectful we've become with one another in our dealings and how little someone's word still country," Gabriel said.
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The SPD's year of turmoil
February 2018: Schulz out, Nahles to take over?
Former Labor Minister Andrea Nahles is a strong contender to head the center-left party. She made a name for herself as the leader of the SPD's youth branch. However, her impassioned defense of joining a Merkel-led coalition in January was seen as the key to clinching a majority to move forward on formal talks. But she'll have to wait until April 22, when the SPD will choose its next leader.
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The SPD's year of turmoil
February 2018: Plummeting poll numbers
If anything, the decision to pursue a Merkel-lead coalition has further dragged support for the party. A poll published in February showed the party at 16 percent if elections were held on February 18, a 2-percent drop from the previous poll a month before. Polls now show the SPD neck-and-neck with the far-right AFD.
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The SPD's year of turmoil
February 2018: Members vote
SPD members – all 463,723 of them – will now vote on whether the party can join a coalition with the CDU and CSU. The members have until March 2 to submit their ballots with results expected shortly after the due date. Until then, Germany waits on the prospect of a new government.
Author: David Martin, Lewis Sanders IV
No rubber stamps this time
There have been two grand coalitions between the conservatives and the SPD, but neither was even remotely as problematic as this one.
In 2005, delegates to a special SPD conference approved the first Merkel government by a wide margin. The coalition took power two months after the national election. In 2013, SPD members ratified a second coalition with Merkel, with 76 percent of respondents voting yes.
The SPD leadership can only dream of a result like that in 2018. At a special SPD conference in January, only 60 percent of delegates voted to authorize their leaders to hold coalition talks with the conservatives.
Read more: Refugees vote on German coalition: 'A big step for integration'
Opposition to the grand coalition, or GroKO, has been fierce and isn't relenting
Former Party Chairman Martin Schulz had to step down after flip-flopping on the grand coalition and trying to claim the post of foreign minister. The newly designated chairwoman Andrea Nahles and acting party leader Olaf Schulz are struggling to assert their authority with the SPD dropping to historic lows of 16 percent in opinion polls.
Meanwhile, the SPD's youth wing, the Jusos, who are led by popular 28-year-old Kevin Kühnert, are continuing to oppose the deal and will be staging events across Germany in the days to come, trying to get members to vote no. SPD enrollment has increased by some 25,000 in recent weeks, and there has been speculation that many new members may have joined specifically in order to oppose the grand coalition.
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Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries
Shifting responsibilities
There are five "classic ministries" in Germany's government – Finance, Foreign, Interior, Justice and Defense. Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) are ceding direct control of two of them. One, finance, is to change from right to left of the political divide, moving from CDU to Social Democrat (SPD) hands. Other switches are likely in less prominent portfolios.
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Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries
Major prize changes hands
The transfer of the Finance Ministry from CDU hands to the SPD is the biggest surprise of the deal. The minister plays a major role at the European level as evidenced by the CDU’s Wolfgang Schäuble during the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Hamburg Mayor Olaf Scholz, a centrist within the SPD, will likely get the title of deputy chancellor in addition to finance minister.
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Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries
Bavaria to take home ministry
The Interior Ministry, which deals with law and order within Germany, looks set to stay in the hands of Merkel’s conservatives, but not her own CDU. Touted for the position is the leader of Bavarian sister party the CSU, Horst Seehofer (left). The Bavarian party has taken a tougher line than Merkel on immigration. The conservatives suffered losses to the far-right AfD in September's election.
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Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries
Who will be Germany's top diplomat?
Under the deal, the SPD will keep control of the Foreign Ministry. Since 1966, the ministry has been run by a member of smaller coalition partners. Sigmar Gabriel has been in the role in a caretaker capacity since Frank-Walter Steinmeier was elected president. Martin Schulz (above), a former leader of the European Parliament, was expected to take over but pulled out in a bid to quell party unrest.
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Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries
Growing profile of defense
The CDU’s Ursula von der Leyen, a key ally of Merkel who is thought to have her own ambitions to become chancellor, is likely to remain in her role at the helm of the Defense Ministry. The ministry has had a growing importance in recent decades as Germany became more involved in foreign military operations. In particular, the Bundeswehr maintains a significant deployment of troops in Afghanistan.
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Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries
Justice unlikely to change hands
Typically a portfolio that goes to the junior coalition partner, responsibility for the Justice Ministry may well stay with the current incumbent — the SPD’s Heiko Maas. While individual states in Germany are generally responsible for the administration of justice, the federal ministry is charged with making and changing constitution-related laws. It also analyzes laws made by other ministries.
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Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries
Economic compensation
Helping to make up for the CDU losing two major offices, the CDU will get its hands on the Economy Ministry, also responsible for energy policy. Merkel's right hand in the chancellery Peter Altmaier (pictured) — who has also been running the Finance Ministry since the departure of Wolfgang Schäuble — is expected to take over from the SPD's Brigitte Zypries.
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Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries
New girl on the block
The favorite to take over at the top of the Ministry of Agriculture is the CDU’s Julia Klöckner, who leads the party in the western state of Rhineland Palatinate. Having twice failed in her bid to become state premier there, she'll be one of the relatively rare new faces in Berlin.
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Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries
Change of track
The CSU will also retain the Transport Ministry with CSU Secretary-General Andreas Scheuer, from Lower Bavaria, taking charge. He’d also be responsible for digital infrastructure. The party will hold onto the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, with undersecretary in the Transport Ministry Dorothee Bär set to take the reins from current Development Minister Gerd Müller.
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Merkel's cabinet takes shape - who's in and out at Germany's ministries
Health in same party hands
The Health Ministry remains a CDU concern, with Annette Widmann-Mauz, an undersecretary in the ministry from Baden Württemberg, expected to take over. She’d replace fellow CDU member Hermann Gröhe, who is touted to head up the Federal Ministry for Education and Research.
Author: Richard Connor
Pros and contras on the road
On the evening of Monday, February 19, Kühnert faced off with SPD General Secretary Lars Klingbeil in a town hall-style meeting to woo hundreds of SPD party members in the town of Ludwigsfelde near Berlin.
The arguments weren't new. Both men agreed that the Social Democrats had extracted a number of concessions from Merkel and the conservatives in coalition negotiations. Klingbeil argued that they were enough to justify a yes vote, while Kühnert reiterated his pleas for the SPD to nix the deal — even if it meant fresh elections.
The crowd seemed to be roughly evenly split — with perhaps a slight edge for those who favored the coalition. Young people were more apt to be skeptical, while older party members praised what they felt their negotiators had achieved.
The mood was very civil, with the only truly tense moment coming when a young SPD member accused the party leadership of "betraying its ideals." That drew an angry response from Klingbeil. On the whole, it seemed unlikely that either he or Kühnert changed many minds.
Leaders on both sides have said that they would abide by and support the party members vote. The event in Ludwigsfelde is the first in a series of such SPD discussions scheduled in various parts of Germany over the next fourteen days.
Is the SPD vote even constitutional?
Germany's road to its next government has been long, and the deal still isn't done
Yet even as both the conservative and Social Democratic leaderships seek approval of the coalition deal, there has been criticism among some prominent CDU members of the SPD member referendum.
The influential state premier of Rhineland Palatinate, Julia Klöckner, accused SPD leaders of "delegating away" authority by giving the rank-and-file the chance to make the final decision.
Read more: Opinion: SPD leader Martin Schulz's political gamble has failed
"The SPD leadership should lead instead of causing confusion," Klöckner told a group of German newspapers.
Others, including some political scientists, have questioned whether it's constitutional to give SPD members what amounts to a right of veto over the next government. Five complaints have been filed with Germany's Constitutional Court, but the judges have refused to hear them.
So, essentially, the SPD's procedure has been deemed legal. The 450,000-plus rank-and-file now have two weeks to fill out and return their ballots, after which all of Germany will learn whether Merkel will able to form a third grand coalition or not.
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