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Finland: Alexander Stubb claims win in presidential runoff

February 11, 2024

Center-right candidate Alexander Stubb has claimed victory and his Green party rival Pekka Haavisto has conceded defeat, with almost all the votes counted after Finland's runoff presidential election.

National Coalition Party (NCP) Presidential candidate Alexander Stubb attends his election reception in Helsinki, Finland, February 11, 2024.
Stubb had a lead of a little over 4% against Haavisto with almost all the votes countedImage: Emmi Korhonen/Lehtikuva/REUTERS

Former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb looked set to become Finland's next president with almost all the votes counted after Sunday's runoff election. 

Stubb declared victory around the same time as his rival, Green party lawmaker Pekka Haavisto, who had decided to run as an independent candidate, acknowledged that the nearly-complete results looked "like defeat" for himself. 

"Well, Alexander. Congratulations to Finalnd's 13th president," Haavisto told Stubb on live TV as a prognosis forecast that Stubb's lead would hold.

With around 90% of the votes counted, support for Stubb was at 52.3% compared to 47.9% for Haavisto. The roughly 4-5% margin between the two candidates had also remained fairly stable as more votes were counted. 

Foreign policy at forefront for new NATO member Finland

The foreign policy experience was key for both candidates, who are also both former Finnish foreign ministers. 

Helsinki is seeking to reorient its security policy after decades of non-alignment.  Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Finland applied for NATO membership and became a fully-fledged member of the alliance in April last year.

Finland's push towards NATO has prompted pledges of "countermeasures" from Russia, with which it shares a 1,340-kilometre (830-mile) border.

Where do Stubb and Haavisto stand on NATO and Russia?

Both Stubb and Haavisto voiced strong support for Ukraine and urged more sanctions against Moscow during the campaign.

"The European Union can do much more to help Ukraine," Haavisto said in a televised debate on Thursday.

Stubb echoed the sentiment, saying that Kyiv deserves "all the support that we can give to them."

"Ukraine's road is our road, and at the moment they are fighting for the freedom of Europeans," the former prime minister said.

War in Ukraine overshadows Finland vote

But the two men differ on the specifics of NATO's defense strategy.

Haavisto believes there is no need for NATO troops to be permanently based in Finland and wants to maintain the country's strict ban on nuclear weapons.

However, Stubb has called for permanent deployment of troops and allowing nuclear weapons to be transported through Finland but also noted they should not be permanently stored in the Scandinavian country.

"At times, a nuclear weapon is a guarantee of peace," Stubb said at a debate on Tuesday.

What's next for Helsinki and Moscow?

Stubb, who has enjoyed a moderate lead over Haavisto in the polls and who won the first-round vote, also told the Reuters news agency there would be "no relations with the president of Russia or with the Russian political leadership until they stop the war in Ukraine."

While Russia's official reaction to Finland's NATO entry has been muted, Finland registered a large number of migrants crossing the border from Russia last summer.

Helsinki claims the migrants were sent by the Kremlin in a bit to destabilize the new NATO member, with Finnish officials deciding to temporarily close the border in November.

dj, msh/lo (AFP, Reuters)