China's missile test causes concern in Pacific nations

On Monday, the Chinese Navy conducted a missile test in the South Pacific, with state media reporting that a nuclear submarine fired a missile carrying a dummy warhead into international waters.

The test quickly drew harsh criticism from US allies in the Pacific. Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the Chinese test was destabilizing for regional security. Japan called on China to reconsider its actions.

New Zealand said it does not want China to use the South Pacific as a testing ground for missiles. "We are deeply concerned about China's tests of nuclear-capable weapons in the South Pacific," Foreign Minister Winston Peters said in Wellington

During the Cold War, the US tested numerous nuclear weapons around the South Pacific's Bikini Atoll, which today is part of the Marshall Islands. Since World War II, the US has dominated the postwar security architecture in the Pacific region.

What do we know about China's missile test?

China's military buildup is now challenging this construct. Although official media have not released any details about the test, nationalist military experts are speculating on Chinese social media about how powerful the tested missile might have been.

"It is a submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile of the Julang (JL)-3 series," wrote Lieutenant Colonel Zhang Junshe a researcher with the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Naval Military Academic Research Institute.

The Julang-3, which means "Giant Wave-3" in English, is currently still under development.

It is said to have a maximum range of 12,000 kilometers (7,400 miles) and can carry multiple nuclear warheads. So far, three successful tests have been reported between 2018 and 2019.

"The target of this missile is not combat troops on the front lines, but strategic targets such as command centers, military bases, or energy infrastructure," Zhang wrote in his blog.

The "Giant Wave-3" is believed to have been launched from a Type 094 Jin-class nuclear-powered submarine. With a full crew of 120 sailors, the 135-meter-long submarine can sustain a submerged crew for at least 70 days. Currently, the Chinese Navy has six Type 094 submarines in service.

Zhang said it cannot be ruled out that a modified submarine was involved.

According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a Washington-based think tank, China operates an additional 59 nuclear-powered attack submarines in addition to the Jin-class submarines.

China builds nuclear deterrent

He added that the weapon is intended to serve as a comprehensive deterrent.

"Even if all other military weapons were to be put out of action, the Chinese submarine would still be fully capable of launching a nuclear counterstrike," Zhang wrote.

As early as September 2024, China had launched an intercontinental missile carrying a dummy warhead from the mainland toward the South Pacific.

The missile reportedly landed in a pre-selected area in French Polynesia. At the time, it was China's first test of a long-range missile over international waters in more than 40 years.

As in 2024, Beijing claimed this week that all neighboring countries had been informed in advance and that the exercise was not directed against any specific country or target.

But China wants to bring about change in the Pacific. The strong military presence of the US and its allies on China's doorstep is a cause for concern in Beijing.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wants to ensure that it is capable of retaliating against military first strikes and responding with what Beijing considers an appropriate counterattack. At the same time, China, a nuclear power, has promised not to launch a nuclear first strike.

"China is currently aggressively challenging the US-led regional security architecture on various levels," wrote Felix Heiduk, head of the Asia Research Group at the Berlin-based think tank Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), in 2024.

At that time, the German military was participating in an exercise led by US forces in the Pacific. For five weeks in July and August 2024, 29 nations with 40 warships conducted exercises around the US military base at Pearl Harbor.

Growing concern

Heiduk wrote in 2024 that Beijing aims to achieve its strategic goal by promoting an alternative regional order 'by and for Asians' with China at the helm, while labeling this US-led order a 'relic of the Cold War.'

This strategy includes the rearmament of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the expansion of bilateral security partnerships, and the militarization of large parts of the South China Sea.

Security concerns are also growing in the South Pacific.

"The PLA's missile force is China's most effective means of launching long-range strikes against Australia," writes Sam Roggeveen and David Vallance of the Australian think tank Lowy Institute in a June 2026 study. "In the event of a major regional conflict, bases throughout northern Australia would be targets for the PLA."

As recently as last month, Australian researchers found no conclusive evidence in publicly available sources that a Chinese missile could reach the Australian mainland if launched from the Chinese mainland.

Australia's metropolitan areas are located on the east coast. Following Monday's missile test in the South Pacific — launched from a submarine — the situation has certainly changed.

The test launch was also a message to NATO, said Secretary General Mark Rutte on the sidelines of the summit in the Turkish capital, Ankara.

"This is further proof that we must not be naive ... and we are not," Rutte said.

This article was originally published in German.