Why does Venezuela claim a large part of Guyana?

While the Socialist United Party of Venezuela (PSUV) was promoting its plans to annex a large chunk of neighboring Guyana in the past weeks, Guyana’s government initiated an arbitration proceeding with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at the United Nations to resolve the longstanding border dispute between the two nations.

On December 1, 2023, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) instructed Caracas to "avoid taking any actions that could change the current situation in the disputed areas of Venezuela and Guyana." Nonetheless, President Nicolas Maduro and his followers — known as Chavistas in homage to the deceased party founder Hugo Chavez — secured a victory in the Venezuelan referendum,officially reported with well over 90 percent approval. One of the question voters were asked was whether Venezuela should ignore the ICJ ruling.

The majority response? Yes.

What territories are at the center of the dispute?

Venezuela seeks to annex the Essequibo region, the parts of Guyana situated west of the Essequibo River, encompassing approximately two-thirds of the country's land area. Guyana is almost the size of Great Britain. If Venezuela annexes the Essequibo region, Guyana would shrink to an area smaller than Scotland.

However, only around 125,000 people out of Guyana's total population of 800,000 reside in the Essequibo region. And the majority of Essequibeans live in coastal regions or in settlements on the banks of the Essequibo river near the Atlantic coast. The remainder of the population is predominantly composed of Indigenous groups and the so-called 'Pork-Knockers,' who, similar to Garimpeiros in Brazil, engage in illegal mining for gold and diamonds, Latin America Historian Christian Cwik from the University of Graz, Austria, told DW.

Essequibo is a part of the extremely inaccessible mountainous terrain of the Guiana Shield which extends from the coasts of Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana, stretching far into Brazil and Venezuela. The Guiana region has long been renowned for its abundant natural resources. In 2015, the US company Exxon Mobil discovered massive oil reserves off the coast of Guyana, with a substantial portion of it located in Essequibo.

What is the basis of Venezuela's claims on Essequibo?

The territorial dispute over Essequibo predates both states currently involved.

After Christopher Columbus arrived in South America in 1498, Spain asserted its claim over the northern part of the subcontinent.

"The Guyanas region, however, was never effectively colonized by the Spaniards," Cwik noted.

During the Napoleonic Wars in early 19th-century Europe, the Spanish Empire disintegrated.

"By the late 18th century, the United Kingdom had already begun annexing territories of the then-Spanish Captaincy General of Venezuela, including the island of Trinidad and parts of what is now called Essequibo," explained Michael Zeuske, a historian specializing in the Caribbean, in an interview with DW.

Following the Congress of Vienna in 1814-15, aimed at restoring order in Europe after the Napoleonic era, these occupied territories remained under British rule, contrary to the expectations that they should be returned to the Spaniards and the Dutch.

In the chaotic period of state formation, newly independent Venezuela initially neglected its claims on the sparsely populated territory in the far southeast of the country, inherited from the Spaniards, according to Victor Mijares, a political scientist at the Universidad de los Andes in Bogotá, Colombia.

An attempt to rectify this led to an arbitration ruling in 1899 and an internationally recognized border. However, "Venezuela felt inadequately represented before the arbitration court in Paris and refused to accept it. When Guyana gained independence in 1966, this [Venezuela's] claim was transferred to the newly established state," Mijares told DW.

In the same year, the Venezuelan government reinforced this claim by establishing a military base on the Guyanese island of Anakoko in the Cuyuni River, which remains under Caracas' control to this day.

Why is Venezuela renewing its claims on Essequibo now?

Amid the unpopularity of his government, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is leveraging the Essequibo issue as a nationalist motive to fortify his position, Mijares said.

"In preparation for the 2024 elections and struggling for international recognition, Maduro has reactivated these historical claims," he added.

According to Mijares, the frequently mentioned discoveries of oil reserves in the region have secondary importance in this context, given that Exxon Mobil made the reserves known in 2015.

Cwik mainly shares Mijares' view but notes that discoveries of oil reserves would allow the Chavistas to make the issue even more ideologically charged.

"Chavistas see Exxon Mobil as a representation of 'North American imperialism.' The current government of Guyana that follows liberal economic policies is also seen as the US' accomplice," Cwik said. 

Previously, Guyana was governed by left-leaning politicians who shared the same ideology with the ruling party in Venezuela, making Caracas reluctant to assert control over Essequibo, according to Cwik.

Another potential reason behind Venezuela's renewed territorial claims could be linked to the current global political situation, as pointed out by Cwik.

"Directing the US's attention away from conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East could give major powers like Russia and China, aligned with Venezuela, the opportunity to pursue their geopolitical interests," he said.

However, Cwik cautioned that it seems unlikely for Maduro to have made far-reaching strategic calculations.

Will there be a war between Guyana and Venezuela?

Numbers highlight a clear disparity in the military power between the two neighbors: Guyana's defense forces claim to have approximately 4,150 active soldiers, while the Venezuelan army says it can mobilize up to 235,000 soldiers. Nevertheless, both Cwik and Mijares believe that Venezuela is unlikely to pursue its claims via military means, as indicated by the referendum.

Mijares cautioned that a military dispute would make Venezuela a less attractive place for foreign investors than it already is. Cwik noted that the United Kingdom still perceives itself as the protective power of Guyana. Furthermore, in late November, the US Department of Defense also declared its intention to send a delegation to the South American country. Guyana's Vice President, Bharrat Jagdeo, went as far as suggesting the possibility of it serving as a military base.

Both experts said that there could be minor skirmishes along the Cuyuni border river, as has been the case in the past. However, they emphasized that the challenging geographic characteristics of the Essequibo would make it difficult for Venezuela to take it under control.

'It's the deepest rainforest; hard to navigate even for small groups of people familiar with the area, let alone an army," Cwik said.

Guyana's government in Georgetown barely has control over what is happening in the remote parts of the area, he added, emphasizing Caracas would hardly have a better chance at governing it.

This article was adapted from German.

This article was altered on December 16, 2023, to clarify the difference between the more densely populated areas of the Essequibo regions and the remote hinterland.