Ethiopia election 2026: Tigray excluded and on edge

There is not a single delegate in Ethiopia's outgoing lower house of parliament, known as the House of Peoples' Representatives, nor in the upper house — the House of Federation — currently representing the embattled Tigray region.

Missing out on another election in 2026 will bring Tigray's total absence from the political arena in Addis Ababa to a full decade. Many wonder where this leaves the region, as tensions appear to flare up again.

"Can we still say with certainty that 'Tigray is part of Ethiopia?' I am not sure," says Alemayehu Fentaw, a fellow at the Center for Constitutional Democracy at the Indiana University Maurer School of Law.

Others seem to share a similarly despondent view of the situation — or worse.

TPLF: Half of Tigray under 'enemy control'

Ethiopia's federal government is legally mandated to ensure and facilitate the representation of Tigray in its federal institutions, including the two chambers, as per the agreement signed following AU-led mediation in Pretoria in 2022.

However, that agreement has repeatedly failed to live up to expectations, other than largely succeeding in silencing active fighting in the region; above all, it has not helped bring democracy back to Tigray. 

Many still view the central government with suspicion and resentment.

"More than 40% of the sovereign territory of Tigray is under enemy control," says Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) spokesman Michaele Asgedom, highlighting that the region is unable "to conduct an election" after years of conflict.

Asgedom explains that millions of internally displaced people who had fled from Tigray due to the bloody civil war have not returned home, in addition to countless people who had originally sought refuge in neighboring Sudan; any election held in Tigray would therefore not be representative of all Tigrayans, he tells DW.

But there's more than a disparate electorate that has observers worrying about the fragile peace in the region, as the rest of the country prepares to go to the polls: The 2020 to 2022 Tigray war still casts its long shadow.

Tigray: from constitutional crisis to civil war

In 2020, Ethiopia's government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had to postpone the country's planned elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The TPLF — the largest and most dominant party in the country's northern Tigray region — accused Abiy of  unconstitutionally extending his government's term this way, and went on to arrange its own local elections, which it won.

Afterwards, the TPLF denied the federal government's legal authority over the Tigray region; the standoff quickly escalated into military hostilities between the TPLF and the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF).

Between 2020 and 2022, an estimated 600,000 people died in the ensuing fighting, with both sides accusing each other of initiating the conflict.

In November 2022, following the Pretoria peace agreement between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF, the results of the 2020 local elections in Tigray were eventually annulled and an interim regional administration was established in Tigray, sidelining TPLF's wartime leaders.

In the three years since, disagreements continued to fester between the region's interim administration and the TPLF.

Return in power: TPLF spites peace deal

The TPLF was in particular opposed to Prime Minister Ahmed's unilateral decision to extend the term of Lieutenant General Tadesse Werede as president of the Tigray Interim Administration by another year.

Last month, the TPLF decided to take unilateral action of its own and restored the Tigray State Council — which had been dissolved as part of the peace agreement.

On May 5, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael was elected as the new president of Tigray, setting the scene for another potential stand-off.

The TPLF consolidation of power was met with a strong warning from Tadesse; however, the federal government has not yet commented on the reinstatement of the pre-war regional council, nor on the return of Gebremichael to leadership.

All quiet on the northern front

A senior military leader from the Ethiopian defense forces, Major General Teshome Gemechu, meanwhile described the move as "anti-Ethiopia" and as "a fantasy that poses a threat to Ethiopian sovereignty."

DW contacted the Prime Minister's Office and the government communication affairs service by email, WhatsApp, and phone to get an official response to the developments; neither of the offices responded to our requests for comment.

Law scholar Alemayehu believes that the federal government's inaction is as much to blame for the collapse of the cessation of hostilities as the TPLF return to leadership, emphasizing the fact that the Pretoria peace deal served as the only engagement mechanism between the federal government and Tigray.

"In my opinion, the federal government has a deliberate policy of disengagement," Alemayehu said, accusing the federal government of "turning Tigray into a buffer zone."

Is Tigray about to witness another war?

As the political crisis continues, there is concern of renewed war among residents of Tigray.

"Our people are suffering under the federal government," TPLF spokesman Michaele told DW, saying that while "there are more than enough reasons for conflict on our part," Tigrayans do not want another war.

But not wanting conflict does not mean that we will not resist the invasion that has been launched against us, or the invasion that will be launched against us," he added. The mood on the ground reflects a similar sentiment. 

Soldiers recruiting teenagers

Eyewitnesses in Tigray told DW this week that TPLF-aligned Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) soldiers were seen forcibly conscripting former fighters as well as teenagers in towns and rural areas outside the regional capital, Mekelle.

Tesfalem Berhe, director of the rights group "Human Rights First Ethiopia," confirmed receiving similar reports.

Mulugeta Atsbeha, a journalist and former correspondent for the Voice of America (VOA) Tigrinya service, meanwhile told DW that on May 5 and 6, Ethiopian military jets were seen flying over Tigray's capital, Mekelle.

Magnus Treiber, an anthropologist and expert on the Horn of Africa at the Ludwig Maximilian University in Munich believes that the fighter jets over Mekelle are more than just "a show of force." 

"And the Ethiopian National Defense Force […] are positioning themselves in the neighboring states of Amhara and Afar," Treiber explained, highlighting that defense installations were being expanded along the northern access roads to the capital, Addis Ababa.

Is Abiy Ahmed trying to save face?

Looking at the reasons for another potential war, Treiber believes that Prime Minister Ahmed is more than just a sore loser in his own country. For Treiber, Tigray is a representation of the Nobel Peace laureate's waning geopololitical clout:

"Ahmed has, in fact, failed to oust the TPLF's old guard and establish an opposition loyal to him in Tigray, either politically or militarily. The TPLF remains the biggest challenge for Abiy Ahmed, who is likely becoming increasingly isolated internationally due to his alleged cooperation with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF)," Treiber told DW.

For constitutional law scholar and conflict analyst Alemayehu, the threat of another civil war can still be mitigated "[i]f the federal government has the goodwill."

Referring to an amendment in the Pretoria Agreement, he believes that in order to keep the peace, the government should "be able to reinstate the registration of the Tigray People's Liberation Front and invite it to negotiations," he said. 

As Ethiopia faces multiple armed challenges, including the TPLF in Tigray, Fano militias in Amhara, and the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia, not to mention rising regional tensions with neighbors Eritrea and Sudan, the new government will undoubtedly have its work cut out after the June 1 elections.

Edited by: Sertan Sanderson