As Iran war rages, Gulf neighbors worry about security

As the US-Israel war on Iran marks two weeks, much is at stake for the region. On Friday, Iran continued to launch strikes on Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, also vowed in his first public comment earlier this week to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.

Iran's Arab neighbors on the Persian Gulf appear reluctant to openly comment on Iran's new supreme leader, Sebastian Sons, a senior researcher at the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient, told DW. "The various capitals in the Gulf want to get a clear picture of the situation first," he said.

Philipp Dienstbier, the Jordan-based head of the Gulf States regional program at the Konrad Adenauer foundation, told DW that the Israeli-US war on Iran has united the Gulf states. "In the early days of the crisis, there were numerous expressions of solidarity" he said, "even between states that were previously at odds."

"The threat from Iran is a challenge that requires regional coordination," he said, predicting that closer cooperation could emerge in the future, particularly in the areas of air defense and missile defense.

"None of the Gulf states has an interest in this war dragging on," Sons said. "Ultimately, the entire business model of the region suffers as a result." Attacks on energy facilities, airports or water infrastructure would strike at the lifeblood of the Gulf economy, he said. "Therefore, the region faces a difficult balancing act," Sons said. The Gulf states must make it clear to Iran "that red lines have been crossed," he said, but added that he doesn't see any "long-term alternative to diplomacy either."

Sons said the conflict was a challenge to the region's security strategy. In recent years, the Gulf states have sought stability situation through broad-based diplomacy, he said. The goal had been to engage with as many actors as possible — including both the United States and Iran.

"This kind of 360-degree diplomacy was actually intended to prevent the region itself from becoming a battlefield," Sons said. Current developments show that this approach worked to a limited extent. The question now is how the Gulf states should deal with an increasingly fragile security situation in the future.

Dienstbier said:. "The Gulf states have deliberately adopted a balanced position in recent years." Saudi Arabia, for example, has increasingly focused on deescalation; countries such as Oman and Qatar have acted as mediators. However, the recent attacks have severely damaged this trust, Dienstbier said. Even if the war ends soon, he added, it will be virtually "impossible to simply return to the way things were before."

'Fundamental change' unlikely

Overall, the regional reaction to Iran's strikes has been mixed, Dienstbier said. He added that the Gulf governments likely see Iran's new supreme leader more as a declaration of  continuity over change.

"Khamenei is considered someone who is close to the Revolutionary Guards and has been groomed within the system as a successor," Dienstbier said. Accordingly, Gulf governments assume that Iran's current policy will continue.

"No one in the Gulf is currently expecting a fundamental change in political course," Dienstbier said. He added that it remains unclear how Khamenei, who had not previously held political office, will act as supreme leader.

Sons offered a similar analysis of the situation. "Khamenei is seen as a clear representative of the existing establishment and thus as a figure who could continue his father's policies." He added: "At the same time, Khamenei has close ties to the Revolutionary Guards and is therefore perceived as a hard-liner."

Sons remains optimistic that a semblance of the old order could be restored around the Persian Gulf. "On the one hand, Khamenei poses a challenge to the security of the Gulf states," he said, "but, on the other hand, he is a figure who is at least reasonably well-known." Therefore, there may be hope that relations with Iran can be "managed" politically in the long term, Sons said.

This article was originally written in German.