Local elections in Serbia: Is Vucic's party losing its grip?

"Thank you all. The score is 10-0. Thank you, Serbia, for the enormous trust."

With these words, Serbia's president Aleksandar Vucic declared election victory on Sunday night from the headquarters of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

Local elections were held in 10 municipalities across Serbia, with 247,985 citizens eligible to vote.

On paper, the outcome amounts to another clean sweep: SNS secured victories in all municipalities, extending its record of electoral dominance.

In practice, however, the picture is more complex — and potentially more troubling for those in power.

From irregularities to open violence

The elections were once again overshadowed by long-standing concerns repeatedly flagged in international reports: the ruling party's overwhelming media dominance, the use of state resources in campaigning, and so-called "functionary campaigning" in which public servants and elected officials leveraged their positions to support SNS, blurring the line between party and state.

Election day itself followed a familiar pattern of irregularities: allegations of vote-buying, pressure on voters, parallel voter lists and "Bulgarian train" schemes, a type of electoral fraud where voters are supplied with pre-filled ballots to cast. Observers reported widespread cases of compromised ballot secrecy, organized transportation of voters and systematic tracking of turnout, all pointing to coordinated efforts to influence voter behavior.

But this time, the scale and intensity marked a clear escalation.

"What happens when someone tries to document vote-buying or stop illegal activities? Batons come into play," head of the independent Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability's (CRTA) election observation mission, Rasa Nedeljkov, told DW.

Across multiple municipalities, reports pointed to organized groups operating on the ground. Masked men armed with sticks — and in some cases even axes — were seen chasing citizens through the streets, attacking journalists and confronting election observers attempting to document irregularities.

By the end of the day, it was not only ballots that were being counted, but injuries as well — bloodied heads, hospitalized reporters and beaten observers.

'Defending democracy'

According to Nedeljkov, these incidents were not spontaneous. Their coordination and resources suggested political backing.  "You don't need to be a sophisticated observer to see the connection," he said, pointing to cases where individuals involved in violence were seen entering or leaving party premises and public institutions.

That is why the CRTA ultimately described election day as "terror against citizens."

But the violence was, at times, openly reframed by officials and pro-government media. Sharing footage of men dressed in black chasing citizens with batons, Serbia's parliament speaker Ana Brnabic wrote on X: "This is an attempt to defend democracy from the blockaders."

Even the presence of police did little to restore order. In multiple cases, their response appeared insufficient or delayed, reinforcing the perception that violence unfolded with limited institutional control.

Narrow margins, deeper shifts

Despite the pressure, SNS's victories were far less convincing than in previous elections.

In several municipalities, SNS wins were decided by razor-thin margins, sometimes by only a few hundred votes. In a political system long defined by comfortable and predictable victories for the ruling party, such results stand out. They suggest that, despite the appearance of total control, support for SNS may be eroding.

"These are smaller municipalities where SNS has traditionally been very strong. And yet, in at least three or four of them, the victory came down to one or two seats," explained Dusan Spasojevic, a professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade. "In several cases, SNS will now depend on coalition partners. That is not a reality they are used to, and it is certainly something they should be concerned about."

While it is still too early to speak of a decisive turning point, the results point to emerging cracks in what has long appeared to be an unassailable system. For Spasojevic, the key lesson is the need for coordination among different actors — opposition parties, the student movement and civil society.

For Rasa Nedeljkov, the priority is to continue the struggle for fair electoral conditions.

"For those who believe nothing can be achieved through elections, the opposite is true," he argues. "If we give up, what we witnessed in these ten municipalities will become the rule, not an exception that demands condemnation and collective action."

For now, the ruling party can still claim victory across the board. But attention is already shifting to what comes next: the possibility of early parliamentary elections, widely seen by parts of the opposition as the next — and potentially decisive — test of strength.