Fact check: Why "85% of refugees are Muslim" is false

Migration and asylum policies have been key topics in election campaigns and political discussions in recent years and months (like in Germany, the USA, the Netherlands, Poland). They can often get highly emotional, and the discussions are prone to misinformation. 

The "Solidarity Pool," an important part of the European Union's new Migration and Asylum Pact, will come into effect mid-2026. Under this framework, member states that face high migration pressure qualify for help from the pool. A recent assessment by the European Commission indicates that Germany, amongst other countries, can request an exemption from taking more asylum-seekers until the end of 2026.

The EU is currently discussing the distribution of migrants and asylum-seekers. An older claim is thus finding fertile ground once more and resurfacing on social media. 

Composition of the worldwide refugee population 

Claim: As seen in this viral post on TikTok, it asserts that "85% of the world's refugees are Muslims" and that "they don't seek asylum in 56 Muslim countries." Part of this claim has circulated since at least 2019 but has recently gained traction again.

DW Fact check: False 

The same claim has appeared in German, Chinese, Portuguese, Dutch, French, Italian and Spanish, and includes posts across various social media platforms. 

By the end of June 2025, there were 42.5 million refugees and 8.4 million asylum-seekers globally worldwide, according to the United Nation's High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). For the first part of this claim, that "85% of refugees are Muslim," we need data on the religious composition of the world's refugees. 

The UNHCR, the UN's refugee agency and a primary source for refugee statistics worldwide, created the Refugee Data Finder which collects refugee population statistics. They, however, do not collect data on refugees' religious affiliations. 

The UNHCR sources its data from its operations and from governments, which often do not collect data on refugees' religion to protect privacy. Additionally, as the collection of this type of data is potentially harmful, the UNHCR's own registration system, PRIMES, only collects it, if it is relevant to determine a person's refugee status. 

For migrants, we found data regarding religious background: The Pew Research Center, a non-profit think tank based in Washington, focuses on the demographic and social characteristics of migrants. It has conducted a study with data on the religious composition of the world's migrants. Here we see that 47 percent of all migrants are Christian and 29 percent are Muslim, a number significantly lower than 85. Refugees are, however, a different group from migrants. And for refugees, we couldn't find similar studies. Whereas migration is often understood to involve voluntary movements, refugees  cannot return home and need to be protected under international law. 

With the religious majority of refugees' countries of origin, we can only estimate whether the claim is probable. Janis Kreuder from the UNHCR, however, cautions that we should "consider that not all citizens of a country are equally likely to have become refugees. See, for example, the Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, who are majority Muslim, while Myanmar is a Buddhist majority country."

Taking this into account, we can, at best, determine trends. The Global Trends 2024 UNHCR report shows that Venezuelans and Ukrainians, both majority Christian countries, make up a significant portion of the overall refugee population. 

Edgar Scrase of the UNHCR writes that "given that Ukrainians and Venezuelans alone comprise nearly one-third of all refugees, including other people in need of international protection, the true proportion of refugees that are Muslims is likely to be much lower."

On the other hand, among the countries from which most refugees originate, some are majority Muslim, including Syria, Afghanistan, and Sudan. 

Importantly, the type of comprehensive data needed to make the statement that 85 percent of all refugees are Muslim does not exist, according to the UNHCR. 

Where do refugees ask for asylum? 

There were 8.42 million asylum-seekers as of June this year. An asylum-seeker is a person who is "seeking international protection from dangers in his or her home country, but whose claim for refugee status hasn't been determined legally."

The claim states that Muslim refugees do not apply for asylum in "56 Muslim states." As there are no comprehensive numbers on all the Muslim refugees, we cannot determine where exactly they ask for asylum. Again, we can only make estimations based on the data available. 

The latter half of the claim probably refers to the 57 members of Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). It was 56 until Syria's membership was reinstated in March 2025. This group includes both states that have declared Islam the official state religion and Muslim-majority countries.  

Edgar Scrase states that at least seven of the largest host countries are predominantly Muslim (Bangladesh, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Chad and Pakistan) and together they host close to 30% of all refugees. All these countries are part of the OIC. 

It is important to note that of all the people fleeing conflict and persecution, the majority of them stay in their countries of origin. When they go abroad, they predominantly go to neighboring countries. As in the previous year, by June 2025, two out of three refugees were hosted in neighboring countries. 

In many cases, neighboring countries have similar religious affiliations. For instance, refugees from Syria, a majority-Muslim country, have mainly gone to Turkey, another predominantly Muslim country. The same is true for Afghan refugees, fleeing mainly to Pakistan and Iran. 

Therefore, Muslim refugees do apply for asylum in Muslim majority countries, including those that are part of the OIC. 

Edited by: Joscha Weber, Rachel Baig

This article was amended on November 24 to clarify imprecise wording.