Autos go eco

A city that's campaigned very hard against vehicle pollution might not be the most obvious choice for a motor show. But tradition dies hard, and the Paris Motor Show is set to open to the public this weekend, as it has every other year in alternation with Frankfurt's own international auto showcase since 1976 - although of course, the Paris Motor Show as such has existed since 1898.

Now, the auto world of 2016, at least at this particular show, is one of emergent green tech and the rise of electric vehicles. With emissions regulations set to tighten in key markets like the EU and the US post 2020, the industry shift to eco-friendlier cars is only likely to accelerate.

"We will see the market with more full-on electric vehicles plug in hybrids - a short range EV [electric vehicle] with zero emissions combined with an internal combustion engine to extend the range - and we will see even more traditional hybrids in the style of the Prius and those vehicles," said Ian Fletcher, a senior automotive analyst at IHS Markit. "We are suspecting significant growth, certainly in Europe."

Recharging Volkswagen

And it was Europe's biggest carmaker who stole the headlines at the press days preceding the formal opening of the Paris Motor Show. No doubt in at least partial atonement for its Dieselgate-related sins, Volkswagen unveiled its electric car concept dubbed the i.D.

It's a type of everyman electric vehicle whose 30,000-euro ($33,639) price tag might mean it holds its own against more expensive models like Tesla's - once it makes it onto the streets that is, in about four years.

But for automotive analyst Jürgen Pieper of Bankhaus Metzler, French carmaker Renault is leading the pack.

"Renault is very active in this area, and I have the impression it's currently ahead," said Pieper. "But in 2020, Mercedes and Volkswagen are going to catch up and those three are going to lead in Europe."

Renault's ZOE has a new battery, able to extend its range to about 300 kilometers (186 miles) in city driving situation - and its already on the market this week, in contrast to Volkswagen's much later release of its i.D.

A race with Renault

At the Paris Motor Show, Renault's concept car Trezor, a silvery, sleek affair whose entire roof opens to reveal its interior, drew crowds. How much of its hyper-futuristic elements will actually make it into production in the end remains to be seen, but what it has under its hood is already well-established reality in the present. It uses the same rechargeable energy storage system seen in race cars running in Formula E - the race that only uses electric cars.

And some of the studies on display at the show are also seeking to address a key concern hampering the sale of electric vehicles in Europe - range. General Motors' German division Opel is trying to tamp down on those reservations with its new Ampera-e, which can go up to 380 kilometers on a single charge.

Indeed, as governments slowly start to pull back on the generous incentives they provided to buyers of electric cars, like tax breaks, cash subsidies or extra road privileges, manufacturers are going to have to step up to convince motorists shying away from the higher costs and limited charging infrastructure. Only 4.2 percent of all passenger car registrations in last year Europe were alternative-fuel vehicles.

Waiting for the right car to ride up

Although the number of electric cars on the market is expected to drastically increase in the next years, motorists might still be waiting for that big breakthrough.

"There's no real killer application at the moment," said Fletcher. "Gasoline and diesel are still very much ingrained - they're just getting a bit more of a hammering at the moment because of VW and the investigations that have taken place around Europe."

As consumers hold out for just the right e-car however - a three-to-four-year-wait, predicted Pieper - diesel will slowly thin out in usage.

"At the moment investment in diesel really is dwindling," said Pieper. "It will take about 15 years, but it will die out. One can already see how the end is coming."

Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche said how much traction electric vehicles would get depended ultimately on the consumer, and less on regulators curbing certain kinds of products over the other. 

"The question is when there will be a tipping point to electric cars from internal combustion engines? What makes an electric car competitive?" Zetsche said.

He believes that customers are looking for "the total package of benefits," that perhaps in the end won't largely focus on "making the world a better place".