This transcript was automatically generated.
00:00:05:01 - 00:00:09:15
Kassandra
Well hello there, and welcome to The Dip, your favorite podcast for all things money.
00:00:09:15 - 00:00:19:17
Daniel
I'm Kassandra and I'm Daniel and Syria's leader visited the White House recently. So we'll ask whether the Trump seal of approval will help the country with its economic recovery.
00:00:19:17 - 00:00:35:07
Kassandra
But first, the US president's scrapped multiple Big Green energy subsidies when he came into office. But is that now starting to erode American competitiveness? After all, advancements in AI rely on cheap electricity to keep those data centers going.
00:00:35:07 - 00:00:55:17
Daniel
That's right. It's been a question that's come up a lot recently. As we just seen, I go from strength to strength. And so who better to talk about this. You know we've planned all of this out. Would you believe it's Louise Osborne from New Environment joining us now to give us the lay of the land. So, Lou, what subsidies have been removed exactly.
00:00:55:17 - 00:00:58:02
Daniel
During Trump's term in office?
00:00:58:04 - 00:01:21:12
Louise
Yeah, I mean, I can I think you can describe the cuts that he's made since he has been in office as a bit of a slaughter. There have been cuts, for example, to tax credits for renewable energy, wind, solar, electric vehicles. There were also cuts or planned cuts affecting major upgrades of electrical grids. So around 7.5 billion for hundreds of projects.
00:01:21:12 - 00:01:44:17
Louise
And if you can believe that mostly in democratic areas. But I think one of the cuts that's had the most impact is, grants for programs like, solar, storage, solar for all program. Where more than 7 billion in funding was cut for expanding solar energy in low income communities. So that was seen as a particular loss.
00:01:44:19 - 00:02:12:03
Louise
But there have also been sweeping cuts made across like organizations like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And that was an organization that provided climate and weather research globally. So it's not only having an impact within the U.S., but also outside aid. And then obviously towards the beginning of the year, that was the firings from the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy also.
00:02:12:05 - 00:02:26:22
Daniel
And we should say, though, that there are some subsidies which remain in place, for example, when it comes to nuclear grid storage or even clean tech components, though the projects that those components would go into, have been rolled back.
00:02:26:24 - 00:02:37:06
Kassandra
That's right. But one you you said the word slaughter, Louise. So I'm wondering what's been the impact of this massive tranche of cuts.
00:02:37:08 - 00:03:00:01
Louise
I mean, if we go back to the the solar thermal program, for example, you know, that was put in place to give around 900,000 households access to solar power, which would have led to them having cheaper energy access. And this was for communities, with low incomes. They would have seen, energy for electricity, for example, drop by about 20%.
00:03:00:01 - 00:03:35:24
Louise
So that is something that they are losing out on as a result of this. There have been clean tech firms that have reported to have canceled around $24 billion in new projects. According to some analysis, that's thousands of jobs, that are being lost as a result of that. And it's also hitting things like, you know, the modernization of the grid, energy storage for renewables and also efforts to protect communities from outages during extreme weather events, which the US is hugely prone to.
00:03:36:01 - 00:03:51:08
Louise
I mean, we've seen flooding in Texas, for example, earlier this year, and right at the beginning, I don't know if you remember the wildfires that, decimated parts of L.A.. And so all of these things have an impact on that level as well.
00:03:51:10 - 00:04:13:16
Daniel
Okay. And so, we have to say, though, hundreds of thousands of jobs and the electricity price going up for, for for average Americans, as well, according to lots of different sources that are monitoring this kind of thing. But what was the reasoning behind all of this? Why did Trump decide to roll back the green subsidies?
00:04:13:18 - 00:04:41:14
Louise
I mean, I think there are the various reasons. I mean, it's no secret that, President Trump is a bit of a climate skeptic. He's called climate change a con job and a hoax. And so on that level, you know, he he just does not believe that those things need to be in place or presumably. But, you know, there were rules put in place by the Inflation Reduction Act, for example.
00:04:41:16 - 00:05:05:17
Louise
And he was it was rolling back some of those things. And there was even a statement that came out from the white House at the beginning of his present presidency that said that they wanted to focus on fossil fuel because, you know, the US has an abundance of energy and natural resources that have historically powered our nation's economic prosperity.
00:05:05:20 - 00:05:40:23
Louise
I'm quoting there from the the press release or these statement that they put out about that. I mean, let's not forget, the US is the biggest oil producer in the world. It's also one of the biggest natural gas producers in the world. And, the arguments that they were making were that they would be able to provide cheaper energy for manufacturing by taking, you know, by using those resources that that the US has and providing job creation, etc., through fossil fuels instead.
00:05:41:00 - 00:06:00:18
Louise
But, you know, there are reports that have shown that renewables have dropped dramatically and cost and are much cheaper than, fossil fuels. And, obviously they are more accessible and don't have the climate problems associated with them that, fossil fuels do.
00:06:00:20 - 00:06:11:03
Kassandra
Right. You kind of alluded to this earlier, but I'm wondering, are we seeing a division here specifically along party lines?
00:06:11:05 - 00:06:34:03
Louise
I mean, it's not specific because there are impacts that have been made on red states as a result of the cuts that we've seen. The international, sorry, the Inflation Reduction Act, for example, was giving a lot of funding to red states. And by rolling that back, that funding is also being taken away from those areas as well.
00:06:34:05 - 00:07:23:17
Louise
Saying that, the Democratic Party is obviously behind, a lot of the renewables projects and the advancements that the US had made. In stepping forward to, to, deal with the climate crisis. And, and that way is very much down party lines. We just saw Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, for example, at the International Climate summit talking about the, California Green agenda, but also talking about how he doesn't want to cede power for, the renewable renewables market over to China, which is obviously taking huge advantage of the fact that the US is stepping out of this renewables race to a large degree.
00:07:23:18 - 00:07:40:09
Louise
Right. Saying all of that, there are lots of, Democratic states, I think, are up there who are trying to fight against some of these cuts and changes that have been made by the, Trump administration.
00:07:40:11 - 00:08:07:08
Daniel
Yeah. And of course, there's the argument about that. It's, the IRA funding in particular, increased inflation, that there was too much waste on unproven projects as well. As reasons why Trump, has done this. Of course, that's not necessarily that anyone's going to argue against a review, but this was definitely a massive rollback. And also, we've seen Trump, has decided not to attend the Cop climate summit in Brazil.
00:08:07:08 - 00:08:30:08
Daniel
That's the UN organized climate conference. And so how does that reflect his approach to green policies? Is it a snub of climate change policies in general, or is it just that he is against these kinds of big UN organized conferences? He's more skeptical of that kind of, multilateral, coordination.
00:08:30:10 - 00:08:56:16
Louise
I mean, I don't think it's a secret that he has, shown some skepticism towards the UN, in general. But this is definitely something that is associated very much with, his views on climate change. I mean, his first day in office, he pulled out of the Paris Agreement, which is the agreement that nations made to try to reduce carbon emissions to stop rises in temperature.
00:08:56:18 - 00:09:32:23
Louise
That was something that he had already done in his first term. As I said before, he's also called climate change a hoax and a con job. And, I think, you know, his his views are very much reflected by the fact that he has not taken part in this, in this conference that is taking place, saying that there has been a lot of relief to some degree, that that is the case because countries were a little fearful of the US coming in and, you know, the rollbacks that they've seen domestically in the US.
00:09:33:00 - 00:10:18:02
Louise
You know, the Trump administration may be also trying to influence the talks and, get countries to also look at rolling back in their own countries. And we've seen evidence of this. I mean, we've seen evidence of this at other negotiations, the, International Maritime Organization, for example, was looking at cutting carbon emissions and shipping. And, there were reports of bullying and intimidation from the the Trump administration in, trying to get countries to not, move forward in those negotiations to the point where the, the decision has actually been postponed as a result.
00:10:18:04 - 00:10:24:09
Daniel
And thank you very much to Louise for breaking that down for us. But, Cassandra, you've also been digging a bit deeper on this.
00:10:24:09 - 00:10:50:16
Kassandra
Yeah. There's so much to talk about here that I really wanted to, braid this a bit and to find out more about what all this means for the U.S. energy prices and its competition with China, which we heard a little bit about already. I spoke to Hubbard Hussain from Capital Economics, the world's second biggest superpower. China is neck and neck with the U.S. in the race to making cutting edge artificial intelligence, how does its energy costs play into this whole conversation?
00:10:50:18 - 00:11:28:19
Hamad
Yeah, I think, particularly on the sort of energy side, China does seem to have, an advantage over the US. When it comes to the development of AI, this is partly a function of the sort of the, the policy infrastructure in China, very much being, state led and, there's very much, sort of a, a view in China that if the state, orders, sort of, you know, more energy, more renewable energy to be built out, then more renewable energy will be built and things can be very quick.
00:11:28:23 - 00:11:53:05
Hamad
Very quick pace in China. So over there, what we're seeing more broadly as well, not just, related to the AI development, but more broadly, China is very much also a leader in, green tech, solar manufacturing, wind, wind turbine manufacturing. And that is something that they'll, probably utilize over the coming years.
00:11:53:07 - 00:12:10:03
Hamad
We'll probably see, China continue to add plenty more solar capacity, plenty more wind capacity, in order to power, the, sort of own development of AI. Over the coming years.
00:12:10:05 - 00:12:28:21
Kassandra
I was reading an update from your firm, Capital Economics, that pointed out that some forms of, quote, low carbon energy technology, unquote, have been actually spared from these cuts that we've been hearing about. Is the Trump administration boosting these technologies on purpose, in your view? Or is this just kind of a happy accident? And what are we talking about here?
00:12:28:23 - 00:12:59:01
Hamad
Yeah, I think the Trump administration, well, on the whole, particularly when it comes to, solar and wind, it has been vocal in its opposition to the build out, those forms of energy. It's it's equally been almost just as vocal in its support for, nuclear power, which is one form of low carbon energy. In particular, nuclear, has retained a lot of the Inflation Reduction Act incentives.
00:12:59:03 - 00:13:26:09
Hamad
And so, and also the Trump, officials within the Trump administration have also signaled their support for, certain nuclear projects, too. So that's one area where we may see, well, that's at least one form of energy that could be a winner from all this. There could be an increased push to, develop nuclear power that is also, one form of baseload power that could, support the development of AI to.
00:13:26:11 - 00:13:50:14
Kassandra
Now, you know, we talked about the intermittency of solar and wind energy. Right. And so one of the things that can help, bridge these periods where maybe there's less energy being produced is, of course, battery storage. What do these cuts from the Trump administration mean for this, technology? That's going to be really critical if what we're talking about is an actual green transition here.
00:13:50:16 - 00:14:19:07
Hamad
Yeah. So I think there's, sort of two, headwinds facing, sort of the build out of battery storage here. One of them is, as you correctly alluded to, is the, the sort of the cuts to federal, subsidies and the loss of, support. In that sense, of course it does sort of, less incentive for consumers to, install battery storage as well as sort of utility scale firms.
00:14:19:09 - 00:14:47:08
Hamad
Then that will all else equal, sort of slow, the build out of, battery storage. We're also seeing a, an impact from the tariffs that have been levied, particularly on, Chinese made batteries. The US, whilst it doesn't import, a great deal of, solar or other green tech from China, it is quite reliant on, battery imports from China.
00:14:47:10 - 00:14:56:20
Hamad
And so tariffs are adding to the cost of battery storage. And again, slowing down the rollout, in that way too.
00:14:56:22 - 00:15:06:14
Kassandra
So zooming out here, the US is competing with China. It's competing with other economies as well. Do cutting back on these subsidies actually make the US less competitive?
00:15:06:16 - 00:15:29:18
Hamad
I think in some senses, the US could become less, competitive as a result of these cuts, to clean energy subsidies, particularly in the long run as well. The sort of direction of travel seems to be that, clean energy, is going to help lower costs. The lower the cost of energy.
00:15:29:20 - 00:15:56:01
Hamad
And, that will, of course, have an impact on, sort of more generally, production costs, around the world. So if you're slower in terms of adopting, these clean energies and integrating them into your production, then of course that will have an impact on your long run competitiveness. So the US could fall behind slightly, in that respect.
00:15:56:03 - 00:16:19:06
Kassandra
On the one hand, we've been talking about how just like massive these cuts have been from the Trump administration. But on the other hand, he's kind of been promising this since day one. He came into office promising to roll back these green initiatives. So nine months on, in your view, has he actually lived up to his promises, or are you potentially surprised that maybe where he was, merciful, I guess is maybe the way I'll put it?
00:16:19:08 - 00:16:47:13
Hamad
Yeah, I think I think Trump has definitely, I think he's lived up to the rhetoric. And I think actually, surprisingly as well, as we've spoke about earlier, a lot of the, tax credits, and subsidies were headed towards, Republican states. So a lot of analysts were expecting perhaps, some mercy, from the Trump administration, in terms of cutting back on these subsidies.
00:16:47:13 - 00:16:52:12
Hamad
So I'd say he's definitely, lived up to his rhetoric so far.
00:16:52:14 - 00:16:57:16
Kassandra
Do you think there have been any surprises for you, in terms of what he's done or hasn't done?
00:16:57:18 - 00:17:29:16
Hamad
Yeah, I think, I think for me, I think the, the scale at which, I think the speed at which, the Trump administration has moved to cut some of these subsidies, and sort of, pull back in, support, not just sort of financial support. But also more generally changes in regulation. I think the speed at which this is all has happened, is, taken, quite a few analysts by surprise.
00:17:29:18 - 00:17:38:11
Hamad
So I think that's the main thing, really, not necessarily what has happened, but rather, just how quickly, President Trump has been able to move with his agenda.
00:17:38:13 - 00:17:49:14
Kassandra
Right. Not that I'm asking you to break out your crystal ball here, but are you expecting the renewable share in the US energy mix to increase or decrease during the Trump administration?
00:17:49:16 - 00:18:17:06
Hamad
Yeah, I think the, renewable share in the US energy mix is is still on track to increase, but at a much slower pace than under the Biden administration. Right. There's a lot of, you could there's a lot of good stories happening on the ground in terms of, state politics. State policies, remaining fairly supportive, but also the economics of, clean energy still make sense, even without, federal support.
00:18:17:06 - 00:18:29:09
Hamad
So we will continue to see, renewables being built out, but at a much slower pace. And, what we've previously seen.
00:18:29:11 - 00:18:40:19
Kassandra
Thanks so much for dipping with us today. But we're going to turn to topic two now, which is Syria, because that country is picking up the pieces following the end of the brutal Assad dictatorship.
00:18:40:24 - 00:19:00:17
Daniel
Yeah. That's right. So Syria's President, Ahmad al Qaeda, visited the white House last week where Donald Trump praised him and where he said that he would ask Congress to lift the remaining sanctions on Syria. So to find out more, I spoke to Ayah Ibrahim, asking her to explain what sanctions are still in place and what which ones could still be lifted.
00:19:00:22 - 00:19:31:14
Aya
European Union sanctions and US sanctions have been lifted. What remains are these more targeted sanctions against terrorist organizations, particular individuals that have involved in terrorism, drug trafficking? Cocktail gone was for very many years a huge issue coming out of Syria, specifically for countries surrounding, surrounding Syria. And so there there remains these targeted, sanctions on specific individuals and groups involved in various illicit activities.
00:19:31:16 - 00:19:52:05
Aya
With that being said, the, you know, the European Union sanctions, I believe, were removed in the summer and U.S. sanctions have been successively removed over time, until quite recently. But it does take time for the effects of sanctions to, to trickle down and to be felt by people on the ground. It's, and for the banking systems to adapt, back to dealings with Syria.
00:19:52:05 - 00:19:58:13
Aya
And so I think it will take some time for us to really be able to see the effect of these sanctions being lifted.
00:19:58:15 - 00:20:26:08
Daniel
Yeah. And there was a recent, IMF, International Monetary Fund mission to Syria. And they say that Syrians economy is showing signs of recovery. Because those sanctions, were lifted. And that's reflected, in improved consumer investor sentiment. And the gradual reintegration with the global economy. But maybe you could kind of break down what that really means, on the ground and what's improved and what remains fragile.
00:20:26:10 - 00:20:51:03
Aya
So there's a lot of consumer confidence, like you said, investment is starting to improve. With over a million Syrians returning back to the country from the surrounding areas. So mostly from places like Lebanon, Turkey and so on. There's a lot more, you know, sort of engagement and e-commerce. A lot more. You know, purchasing the economy is definitely on the mend.
00:20:51:03 - 00:21:24:01
Aya
However, even the IMF says that these are very promising, but also it's a fragile, development. And it's a fragile, recovery, if you will. Authorities have also the IMF says that have started trying to adopt better fiscal policies after years and years of economic, downturn. But what remains fragile is, of course, liquidity in the banking system, a system that has been cut off from the global economy for very many years.
00:21:24:03 - 00:21:40:10
Aya
Foreign exchange is a problem. And of course, you're dealing with a country where foreign assistance, be that in the form of aid or investment has been cut off for a really long time. And so it remains to be seen whether we'll see improvements on these fronts as well. That could lead to then more long term sustainable recovery for Syria's economy.
00:21:40:12 - 00:21:56:14
Daniel
Okay. And there's a huge construction bill, as well as all kinds of estimates going around up to like $50 billion. But it's clear it's going to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars. So what are the priority is for, rebuilding and building in general when it comes to, to Syria?
00:21:56:16 - 00:22:35:09
Aya
Yeah. Housing for people to return for people to have, you know, think about it. And you kind of economic activity, sustainable economic activity for an individual like for me to be able to go to work and be productive, I need to know that I have a home with a roof that I could go back to. I need to know that I'm able to provide for my family, and you have to take that requirement and, you know, multiply it to, you know, very, very large parts of Syria's population, infrastructure, roads, another big one that we have covered quite a bit in our, coverage of Syria is the issue of explosives and landmines,
00:22:35:11 - 00:22:55:00
Aya
remnants and so on. That is a huge hindrance for, people returning. So we recently did the story actually in the northwestern part of Syria, and we profiled two families that had been displaced in the northwestern part of the country. And as soon as, you know, the regime fell, they started making their way back to their homes.
00:22:55:02 - 00:23:17:06
Aya
Only then to have mines, you know, explode under beneath the feet of their children. And then they ended up being displaced again because their homes are just not fit for return. And that exists in very large parts of the country. That definitely stands in the way of things like agriculture. And also rebuilding. And the effort to do more in Syria is huge.
00:23:17:08 - 00:23:34:14
Daniel
And even with, when it comes to electricity in people's homes, even in the capital, Damascus, I mean, a lot of people are dealing with, with rolling blackouts. What do you know about people's experiences? Kind of like day to day with this? If you're living in the in the center, this, huge city, but yet you do have electricity for a lot of the day.
00:23:34:20 - 00:23:36:20
Daniel
What's that like?
00:23:36:22 - 00:23:55:00
Aya
Yeah. I mean, when we were there, it was quite, you know, we we my team and I, we do go to Syria quite regularly. But it is like that that, you know, you could be you know, imagine your shop or a restaurant or a hotel and you can't really reliably provide your customers with electricity for the services that they're there to get.
00:23:55:02 - 00:24:05:18
Aya
For you, it's haphazard, it's random. And then you have to rely on extra, you know, then you have extra costs, perhaps through generators or whatever, an extra way that you need to.
00:24:05:19 - 00:24:08:11
Daniel
Solar panels is a big thing as well. You see the.
00:24:08:12 - 00:24:22:21
Aya
Company, there's actually a lot of potential for that. But the infrastructure. Yeah. And this goes back to your last question. Things like the electricity grid are definitely, yeah, areas where the country needs to, to rebuild and improve.
00:24:22:23 - 00:24:38:02
Daniel
So inflation in the Syrian pound is high as well. You mentioned, about the, the difficulty with, with the currency and liquidity. So I think it's over 50% in the first half of this year. So how are Syrians coping with that?
00:24:38:04 - 00:24:57:08
Aya
Yeah, I mean, they're coping in that. They're sort of living day to day inflation goes up and down. I mean, there were certain times when we were there were from day to day, the exchange rate would change and the prices for things would change as well, depending on, on developments that one could not always like, explain. Logically.
00:24:57:08 - 00:25:21:10
Aya
I mean, it's hard to say how people are coping. It's a difficult situation. It's difficult to try and plan long term when you don't know, you know, your rent, your basic goods, how they're going to cost day to day. So I think what it does is that it creates a lot of uncertainty, unfortunately, especially when it comes to people returning and then deciding to stay in the country long term or, you know, resettling, going back after long periods of, of displacement.
00:25:21:12 - 00:25:26:23
Daniel
Yeah. Know, a lot of the big business deals are still being carried out in dollars because the Syrian pound is so reliable.
00:25:26:23 - 00:25:48:09
Aya
But certainly and you have to go around, you have to imagine you have to go around with like massive like to pay for your lunch. You have to go around with massive bags of cash in Syria and currency because the currency is just so inflated. And so that is not an insignificant, challenge, especially that, you know, electronic like card card payments are almost non-existent.
00:25:48:09 - 00:26:06:13
Aya
I've, I think there was one hotel in the old town a few months ago that finally announced that if you are a guest at the hotel, you can start paying with credit card, but that's the only instance that I've actually seen where it's possible. It might, you know, it may be that it exists in other places, but it certainly is extremely, extremely rare.
00:26:06:13 - 00:26:18:02
Aya
And so you do have to be walking around with these massive, massive bags of cash. And everywhere in Damascus you'll see, like, sort of street vendors that are there to exchange the currency for you, on the Blink Market on the street. That's not unusual.
00:26:18:04 - 00:26:41:18
Daniel
Yeah. And, even if you find a place that will accept digital payments, if there's a blackout, then of course, that's down as well. And, you know, that's that also hinders, some of the benefits that, would help Syria with recovery from digitalization. There's just it's not reliable. So it's must be very difficult on that front too, especially when now you've got a lot of people returning, a lot of, properties being bought and sold and all this kind of thing.
00:26:41:18 - 00:27:03:09
Daniel
And yet you have to go through all of the the slow process of doing everything by hand and by paper and through the, public bureaucracy as it is. You mentioned, agriculture as well. And the impact on agriculture is one of the factors that's driving prices, in the pound so high. So what are the prospects for recovery in farming?
00:27:03:11 - 00:27:36:12
Aya
Well, recovery is possible, but it does need a lot of conditions for it to start getting, you know, back on track. We need to Syria needs to start looking at things like irrigation system, water management infrastructure is again something that will come up again and again regardless of what sector it is that you're talking about. There's still, you know, the supply chains for things like fertilizer, equipment for agriculture and of course, the mining of farmland, which had has been ignored largely for a very, very long time.
00:27:36:17 - 00:28:01:11
Aya
I will also say that another big, you know, and this this is a cross industry and not just in agriculture or anything else. I mean, you have this central government that still isn't in control of the full territory of Syria, and there's still a lot of open security questions with different parts of the country. And obviously that in and of itself doesn't really inspire external investor confidence necessarily.
00:28:01:15 - 00:28:27:04
Aya
And so they're, you know, they're they're the sort of, you know, the very clear economic challenges. But they're also there are massive political challenges that stand in the way of recovery. And one of them is that the central government is actually in charge, that it enjoys the, the confidence of everybody in Syria. This is a country that has really been plagued with sectarian violence, and groups being deeply distrustful of each other for very many decades.
00:28:27:06 - 00:28:55:05
Aya
This is nothing that this particular government is responsible for alone. And I think good governance, you know, real signs that there isn't going to just be another kleptocracy are needed, to inspire confidence, not just from Syrians, which there's a lot of optimism. And there should be a lot of optimism because Assad, you know, getting removed is something that, you know, even a few days before he was removed, I would not have guessed to have happened.
00:28:55:07 - 00:29:18:22
Aya
You know, if this happened in December of last year, it kind of caught everybody by surprise how fast the rebels were able to advance. And so there's a lot of reason for optimism, but also a lot of reasons for skepticism. And I think for that confidence and that optimism to remain over time. There's a lot that the government needs to do to prove that it is a government for all Syrians and that it doesn't want to repeat some of the issues of past regimes.
00:29:18:24 - 00:29:40:07
Daniel
Okay. So let's dig into that that governance aspect then. And Syria's President Ahmed, I'll shut up. I visited the white House, recently. What was the outcome of talks with President Trump? Because of course, Trump's, Trump's opinion here, Trump's views are actually very important for the future of Syria, especially when it came to the decision to lift sanctions.
00:29:40:09 - 00:30:04:13
Aya
Yeah. So there is kind of a massive, massive surprise. If you just think about like, his character arc, he was sitting on stage, I think, a few months ago with the former CIA director. This was a man who, you know, essentially was tasked with hunting him for very many years. And so, you know, you cannot say enough about the kind of incredible international legitimacy that al-Qaida was able to win over a very, very short period of time.
00:30:04:18 - 00:30:27:16
Aya
The fact that he was in the white House recently, the United States lifted sanctions in Saudi Arabia this was announced at this conference in Saudi Arabia also earlier this year. And so he has for some reason, been able to win a lot of international legitimacy. And the talks, at the white House seem to be positive to a large extent.
00:30:27:18 - 00:30:52:03
Aya
And, you know, Donald Trump was sort of joking with him about how many wives all these like, sort of very, you know, comical moments, almost surreal moments. And so it does, at least at the surface of it, seem to be a seemed to have been a very, very successful the just the fact that he was invited to the white House so soon, after, you know, after the removal of Bashar Assad, it's quite extraordinary.
00:30:52:05 - 00:31:19:12
Daniel
Yeah. There was this moment when Trump, gave shut up, a bottle of his puff and was spraying it on him. It's a very odd situation, and especially when you take into account, like he said, this, this arc, of what's happened with, with Musharraf where he came from to where he is now. But the world Bank says that a rebound in Syria's fortunes, especially an economic rebound, is still extraordinarily uncertain.
00:31:19:14 - 00:31:36:04
Daniel
So what are Syrians saying? Are they confident that, oh, shut out will deliver on his promises of peace, stability and growth? Or are they nervous that there could be backsliding into, authoritarianism? Let's put it that way.
00:31:36:06 - 00:31:55:19
Aya
I think there was a lot of euphoria at the beginning that was quickly sort of faced with reality on the ground. And again, these are not things that this particular government or, minister has caused directly, but certainly some of the ways that the government has dealt, has dealt with these challenges has definitely inspired a lot of skepticism.
00:31:55:19 - 00:32:19:19
Aya
And by that, I really mean the, you know, the flare ups of sectarian violence of the coast, sort of around April, March and then later in Swade, with the Druze. Then this was around July and the summer, and in both cases, it there's very, very good reasons to believe that government or government linked forces were involved in violations.
00:32:19:19 - 00:32:47:12
Aya
And it's exactly these flare ups and sectarian violence that are extremely triggering for very large parts of the Syrian population, which is very diverse, which has a lot of, you know, so-called minorities, who fear for their security and fear for their inclusion. And when they see something like this happened, well, that definitely you know, that casts a shadow on what this government can and is, quite frankly, willing to do for the unity of Syria.
00:32:47:14 - 00:33:21:10
Aya
But of Syria and for, you know, for a point to be reached where all Syrians feel like they're included equally. There's also the investigation into the, you know, the the violations in the coast, which didn't completely let off government forces up it, like, didn't completely let them off the hook, government forces. But it's certainly, you know, a lot of Syrians have told me they don't feel like this was, you know, the condemnation of government or involvement or forces that are linked to the government was, was was strong enough.
00:33:21:12 - 00:33:25:23
Daniel
And thank you very much to Aya for speaking with us. And that's it for this edition.
00:33:25:23 - 00:33:36:03
Kassandra
Of the day. And of course, if you want to ask our experts or our global network of correspondents a question, please leave us a comment. Or send us an email at the com.
00:33:36:06 - 00:33:45:02
Daniel
And yeah, that means we'll be back or with our Q&A edition, next time on Tuesday. So until then, thank you very much for listening to the Dip.