Turkey angry

Ankara has recalled its ambassador to France and suspended all political, economic and military cooperation in retaliation against a bill on Armenian genocide which has been passed by the lower house of parliament in France.

"We don't have genocide in our history," Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters in Ankara, just hours after the vote in the French National Assembly. "This policy is based on racism, creating hate against Turkey and the Turks, only for the sake of winning the upcoming elections."

Erdogan's criticism was targeted at French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who faces a tough battle in next year's presidential elections. Many analysts view the recent move as his attempt to secure the support of half a million voters of Armenian origin.

On Friday, Turkey accused France of committing genocide during its occupation of Algeria. "France massacred an estimated 15 percent of the Algerian population starting from 1945," said Erdogan. "This is genocide."

The bill approved by the assembly makes it a crime to question that the deaths of Armenians at the hands of Turkish Ottoman forces between 1915 and 1917 amounted to genocide. The bill mandates a 45,000-euro fine and a year in jail for offenders.

Turkey puts the number of Armenians killed at between 150 and 300,000, while Armenia puts the figure at 1.5 million.

Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan argued that making it a crime to oppose Armenian claims of genocide was against the principles of freedom. "I ask you: Is there freedom of thought and freedom of expression in France? The answer is, 'No.' France has abolished the spirit of free discussion," he claimed. Erdogan said historians - not parliaments - should write history.

The draft law, backed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and most of his right wing UMP party, has to pass in the Senate before being enacted in law. But its fate is still unclear. The parliament rises at the end of February ahead of presidential elections.

Relations hit new low

France formally recognized the Armenian genocide in 2001, but without imposing a penalty for denying it. But even that move was a major blow to relations.

Last week, ahead of the vote on the new bill, Turkey warned France there would be grave political and economic consequences should it be approved in the National Assembly. But Ankara's warnings fell on deaf ears. According to Turkish press reports, Sarkozy even refused to talk to his Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gül on the phone, who attempted to call him personally several times.

Now, Prime Minister Erdogan has announced the first set of sanctions and warned that further sanctions will follow if France goes forward with the bill.

"We are now cancelling all economic, political and military meetings with France," Erdogan told reporters. "We are suspending all political consultations and cancelling all planned military maneuvers," he added.

The eight measures which Erdogan announced fell short of suspending all diplomatic and economic relations, but cancelled almost all cooperation projects between the two NATO allies. Ankara announced that not only planned visits at government level, but also exchange and scholarship programs and joint EU projects will be suspended.

A general permission for French military planes for overflight and landing has also been revoked. French military aircraft, which use Turkey's airspace and airports particularly for transfers to Afghanistan, will now have to ask for permission for each and every flight and landing.

Ankara also cancelled a major trade forum planned for 2012 and Turkish ministers signaled that French firms will be excluded from major energy projects and defense tenders.

Tension undermines trade

Turkey has been an attractive destination for European investors and firms, with its booming economy and its proximity to emerging markets.

But French firms have been lagging behind, partly due to the political tensions between Turkey and France.

Currently around 1,000 French firms are operating in Turkey and trade between the two countries is worth 12 billion euros per year. Compared with the other European economic powerhouse, Germany, these numbers are relatively low.

Thanks to the economic boom in Turkey, German investment and trade has reached a new record this year. Around 4,700 German companies have investments in Turkey and the trade volume between two countries has reached 32 billion euros.

Rivalry between Turkey and France

While most analysts view French domestic politics as the main reason for the recent tension between France and Turkey, some are arguing that problems go much deeper.

The crises in Libya and later in Syria saw both countries competing to influence developments in the region.

In addition, Sarkozy resolutely opposes Turkey's EU membership, which Ankara views as a strategic goal, aimed at increasing its profile in regional and world politics. Since he came to power in 2007, Sarkozy has turned his attention to developing relations with Cyprus and Armenia, both countries which are in conflict with Turkey.

According to Cınar Ozen, professor of international relations at Ankara University, France now seems to be manipulating the Armenian issue for its national interests.

"As the Cyprus problem is becoming less effective as a way of blocking Turkey's EU accession process, is France now trying to use the Armenian issue?" he asked on NTV television.

Kadri Gürsel, a foreign policy expert and commentator for the liberal daily Milliyet, also underlined a similar point. Recalling that France already passed a law recognizing the killing of Armenians as genocide in 2001, and there had been numerous similar legal initiatives, Gürsel pointed out that this time, the difference was that this move was being made with particular reference to the EU rules on combating racism.

"The recent bill in France situates the problem in the context of relations between Turkey and the EU as a whole," Gürsel wrote in his column. "The most important aspect of this legal initiative is this new context."

International recognition of killings

So far about two dozen countries have recognized the killing of Armenians as genocide, but few have laws punishing those who disagree. There have been calls by several European parliamentarians in the past to require Turkey to recognize the Armenian genocide before it can join the EU, but so far these suggestions have not found enough support. But such calls have often created outrage and fed nationalist feelings in Turkish public opinion, rather than promoting an open discussion over the re-evaluation of history.

Professor Cınar Ozen of Ankara University said Turkey has to develop a comprehensive policy towards the Armenians in order to solve this longstanding problem.

"If Turkey will not act, this problem will continue to be a tool in the hands of Turkey's enemies," he told NTV television. "Turkey should make further reforms to expand freedom of expression in the country. It should support the Armenian citizens of Turkey in their efforts to express themselves in a free manner. Ankara should establish direct contact with the Armenian Diaspora," he concluded.

Author: Ayhan Simsek
Editor: Michael Lawton