Divisions Over Kosovo
October 25, 2007
NATO defense ministers have gathered in the Dutch town of Noordwijk for a two-day meeting, during which they are expected to pledge to maintain NATO's 16,000 peacekeepers in Kosovo at full strength over the coming months.
They are to be joined by Russia's defense minister, Anatoly Serdyukov later on Thursday, Oct. 25, when the issue of Kosovo is expected to loom large.
Russia, which holds a veto in the UN Security Council as one of five permanent members, blocked in March the plans of UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari to set Kosovo on the road to independence from Serbia. Russia said any plan on Kosovo's status needed to backed by both the Serbian and Kosovo leadership.
The predominantly ethnic-Albanian Serbian province has been under UN administration since 1999. Following Russia's veto, Kosovo Albanian and Serbian officials have been engaged in negotiations, mediated by a troika of envoys from Russia, the United States and the European Union.
Kosovo Albanians leaders have said they will declare independence from Serbia unilaterally shortly after these negotiations end on Dec. 10, unless an agreement is met.
Troika fails to agree
With Kosovo and Serbia failing to make headway in negotiations and the end of the year approaching rapidly, the rift in the troika on how to resolve the issue is becoming more evident.
Russia has continually expressed its concern that any proclamation of independence by Kosovo would serve as a dangerous precedent for other countries -- although analysts say that the government is more concerned about the effect on its own minorities in regions such as the Caucasus.
"I do not see how granting Kosovo unilateral independence will stabilize the situation in Europe," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said last month.
"It is more likely to cause a chain reaction on the continent and around the world," he said. "Russia would like to prevent such a scenario knowing that other countries also want the same."
In contrast, the US has repeatedly said that it strongly supports Kosovo independence and has signaled it would recognize a unilateral declaration.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in September: "There's going to be an independent Kosovo," and that "we're dedicated to that."
Germany wants to wait and see
Germany refuted media reports on Wednesday that the government had agreed to recognize a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo.
"There is no decision," Gert Weisskirchen, the Social Democrats' foreign affairs spokesman in parliament, told Germany's Deutschlandfunk radio. "Rather, we will wait and see what the troika reports; after all, it has to deliver a report to the United Nations."
"Also, before making any political decision, we have to see what comes out the [talks] in Vienna," Weisskirchen added. "Let's give diplomacy time."
A unified EU?
Although the majority of EU countries, like Germany, back Kosovo's push for independence, many are reluctant to do this without the support of the UN. However, several countries share Russia's opinion, making EU consensus difficult.
Romania and Slovakia, both fearful that ethnic Hungarians could want greater autonomy, have spoken out against an independent Kosovo, but have reportedly come under heavy pressure from the US to change their stance.
It is more likely to be Greece and Cyprus that remain the stumbling blocks to an EU agreement.
Greece, a close ally of Serbia, is reportedly concerned that ethnic Albanians living in Macedonia could similarly push for independence, which would destabilize the situation in their neighboring country. Cyprus, divided between the Turkish north and the Greek Cypriot south, fears the Kosovo example might be used by the Turkish Cypriots.
Despite this situation, Wolfgang Ischinger, the EU's envoy for Kosovo, told Deutsche Welle that he believed "the EU will remain unified."
"The chances are very good that the EU can hold together not only until Dec. 10, but also beyond that, whatever else happens," Ischinger said in an interview on Wednesday. "This is regardless of whether [Kosovo and Serbia] agree or disagree."
Negotiations show no headway
Following the latest unsuccessful round of internationally mediated talks between Serbian and Albanian negotiators held on Monday in Vienna, Ischinger complained that both sides were too focused on their own political agendas.
"I believe that it is possible to solve the Kosovo issue," Ischinger said.
"The question that I can't answer is whether both parties -- that in the end have come to an agreement -- have enough political will to carry out this agreement," he said.
On Friday, Russia's President Vladimir Putin is due to meet with top EU officials at the second of the twice-yearly EU-Russia summits. Analysts say that with Russian parliamentary elections in December, the summit is unlikely to produce anything concrete on the Kosovo problem.