When the gods roar

The waves lap gently on the shores of Pasir Nan Tigo in western Sumatra. Fishermen sit under the palm trees and mend their nets, some of them tinker with their engines, others sit in the local pub and smoke kretek - sweet tasting clove cigarettes.

It would be an idyllic picture if it wasn't for the memory of the tsunami that shook southeast Asia in 2004.

"Of course I am frightened," said Izul, who grew up in one of the region's small fishing villages. But he puts his trust in an early warning system, pointing to a mast that is just visible in the distance.

"A siren has been installed up there, and when it sounds, we know that a tsunami is approaching," he said.

Learning from 2004

In Java, this good faith turned out to be fatal. In July 2006, there was an earth tremor on the south coast. The tidal wave that followed washed hundreds of people to their death. The authorities had issued an early warning, but lacking communications structures and a lagging bureaucracy prevented the coastal dwellers from being alerted.

"The best technology in the world is useless if the warnings don't reach the coastal dwellers in time," said Fauzi, head of the earthquake and tsunami watch at the Geophysical Institute in Jakarta.

The interval between a seaquake and the ensuing tidal wave is sometimes as little as 15 minutes. It is hardly enough time to alert and evacuate people. For many, it is often too late.

Listening to nature's early warning signs

Harald Spahn from the German Institute of Technical Cooperation (GTZ) advises people to also monitor natural warning signs.

"When you feel a strong earth tremor and you live on the coast, then it is better for you to head for safety immediately," he said. Spahn is working on an early warning system for the region. Sensors that have been set up in strategic locations measure the motion and swell of the waves and give early warning if wave patterns change suddenly.

Hi-tech systems such as these are vital because they are able to measure the strength of a seaquake almost as soon as it happens.

"If it is a strong tremor, then the people should be warned immediately, because you can't always feel the sea-tremor on land," Spahn said.

The difficulties of early warning

Despite scientific advancements, it is not possible to predict the exact timing of a quake or a volcanic eruption. Mount Merapi, Indonesia's most famous and also dangerous volcano regularly expels smoke into the air. The inhabitants are continuously being evacuated because of the threat of lava streams running into the valley or because of falling ash rain.

Panut, the head of the observation post Kaliurang on Merapi, said that despite even natural signs, it is almost impossible to predict an actual eruption.

"The only thing we can do is watch the volcano everyday," he said. In 1994, 70 people were killed by the "fire mountain" after Merapi expelled a cloud measuring 700 degrees celsius. One problem is that inhabitants often ignore warnings, Panut said.

"They prefer to stay with their homes and their livestock," he said.

When the gods roared, the earth shook

In 2006, it seemed as if the time had come again: all the signs pointed to an eruption. But instead of an eruption, the inhabitants of the town of Yogyakarta were hit by an earthquake. Thousands of people died in their sleep after their houses collapsed on top of them.

"That many people didn't need to die," said Sarwidi, head of the Center for Earthquake Studies in Yogyakarta. Sarwidi is now pushing his people to deal more with the dangers of the region that they live in.

"The people just don't seem to understand how dangerous an earthquake can be," Sarwidi said. "They don't even take the most basic precautions, for example they continue to build flimsily constructed houses."

It comes as no surprise to him that these houses collapse, even when the earthquake is a light one.

Author: Peter Koppen
Editor: Sabina Casagrande