No change from within

Foreign leaders should give up hopes that domestic forces in Iran would lead the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to change course when it comes to Iran's nuclear program, experts said.

March parliamentary elections, in fact, showed the degree of political powerlessness the opposition movement is currently experiencing. Already in a weak position, reformers - including the few remaining reform-oriented newspapers - have not risked speaking out about the nuclear program.

"The National Security Council has issued written orders to all newspapers not to question nuclear policy," said Hossein Bastani, a journalist living in exile in Paris. "I've held such a letter in my hand."

Return to the Khatami era

In 2005, Bastani wrote for several reform papers and his critical reports landed him in prison. He left Iran and now works as a political commentator outside the country. Bastani said he believes that all the reformers in Iran are against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's nuclear policy.

"They do not say so directly, but every time they can, they emphasize that the Khatami government's nuclear policy was correct," he said.

Khatami, Ahmadinejad's predecessor, approached the United States with a far-reaching security partnership in 2003 after Iran's covert nuclear program was exposed. The deal, which was rejected by the United States, would have included increased cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and came shortly after US intelligence recognized that Iran had halted work on its nuclear weapons program, according to a report published in 2007.

After the US decision not to engage Iran, the European Union spent years unsuccessfully trying to sign a nuclear agreement with Tehran.

Confrontation course

The political landscape changed in 2005. With the support of conservative powers, Ahmadinejad was elected president, and backed by the religious leader Khamenei, he took a confrontational course with the international community when it came to nuclear issues.

Bastani said he believes Khamenei's position has become increasingly extreme over time.

"When Ahmadinejad signaled to the world in 2009 that he was willing to make concessions, the move was blocked by Iran's religious leader," Bastani said.

Discussion at the time centered on an agreement, which ultimately failed, for Russia to enrich radioactive materials for use in the Iranian nuclear power plants. Even leaders in the reform movement, including Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, were against the deal when it was proposed. Their opposition suggests that even if reformers were to gain in influence, it would not necessarily lead to fruitful talks on nuclear issues.

Reformers impotence

Abbas Abdi, a political commentator from Tehran, said he regrets that reformers are divided and unable to agree on a clear political platform.

"They should have made clear who they are and what they want to achieve," Abdi said.

He added that the reformers' position is not strong to hold sway when it comes to nuclear policy.

"For the near future, the reformers' ability to influence policy looks fairly bleak unless those in power start stumbling and end up needing help from the reformers to regain legitimacy," Abdi said.

Another reform politician, who was recently released from prison and requested anonymity for the safety of himself and his family, explained reformers' powerlessness: "Reformers, no matter what title they use or group they belong to, cannot do anything except publish petitions. When it comes to the nuclear program, everything gets even more complicated."

The politician, who spent over 10 years in prison, said the religious leader was the man ultimately responsible for deciding the course on nuclear issues and added that Khamenei has shown he intends to maintain an image of an adamant defender of Iran's national rights.

The reform politician said he does not expect the public's growing dissatisfaction due to expanded sanctions to endanger the government's position.

"The base of this government is made up of people who live on the outskirts of big cities and in villages," he said. "They make up a total of 60 percent of the Iranian population and receive money from the state."

The politician added that the conservatives benefit from the international focus on Iran's nuclear program since it diverts attention from Tehran's human rights record.

"This conflict comes at the expense of the democracy movement in Iran," he said.

Author: Shabnam Nourian / sms
Editor: Neil King