Plans, promises, doubts

Denmark, the host of the upcoming conference, has released a draft proposal, stating that the world should cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent by 2050 from 1990 levels. It also said that rich countries should account for 80 percent of the global emission cuts.

Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said he would like a "politically binding" agreement that outlines each developed country's obligations, such as cuts in emissions, by 2020. He also wants a deadline in 2010 by when the deal has to be translated into a legal treaty text.

However, the 192 participating countries have shown varying intentions in regards to climate goals, making their own draft proposals.

Divisions within the industrialized world

The two main sides in the negotiations are industrialized countries and developing countries. Apart from this division, various nations have come together in official blocs to negotiate on common interests and make their voices heard.

In the industrialized half, the European Union, which comprises 27 member states, negotiates as a unified entity. It currently aims for unilaterally cutting its emissions by 20 percent by 2020 compared to 1990 levels, offering to increase this to 30 percent if other industrialized parties follow suit.

The Umbrella Group brings together non-EU industrialized nations (the United States, Russia, Japan, Canada, Australia, Ukraine, New Zealand, Norway, Iceland and Kazakhstan).

Within this group, key player the United States has offered to cut emissions by 17 percent by 2020, as compared to 2005 output. It plans to increase this quota to 30 percent by 2025 and 83 percent by 2050. US senators have urged President Barack Obama to push for global action to fight climate change, but warned that developing nations must bear a large part of the burden.

"Poorly designed climate policies could jeopardize US national interests by imposing burdens on US consumers, companies and workers without solving the climate challenge," wrote the nine lawmakers, all of them political allies of the White House.

Russia's commitment was revealed a at summit with the EU on November 18, where President Dmitry Medvedev reportedly agreed to a cut of between 22 percent and 25 percent by 2020 from 1990 levels, raising its target from 15 percent. This has not been officially confirmed.

Japan has planned a cut of 25 percent by 2020 relative to 1990, on condition that there is "a highly ambitious accord with participation by all major countries."

Canada aims for an emission-reduction of 20 percent by 2020 compared to 2006, equivalent to a fall of 3 percent compared to the 1990 benchmark. The federal parliament has passed a non-binding motion urging a 25-percent cut relative to 1990, while the French-speaking province of Quebec has said it will follow the EU's position.

In Australia, the parliament has twice rejected a bill for reducing emissions by between 5 percent and 25 percent of 2000 levels by 2020. The defeat of the legislation leaves Prime Minister Kevin Rudd empty-handed as he heads to the Copenhagen climate talks. Rudd warned that there was no "magic pudding" solution to climate change as he lashed out over the defeat of his flagship carbon-trading scheme and called for "wiser heads" to pass the bill at the third attempt.

Developing countries demand aid and concessions

Among poorer nations, the G77/China block brings together 130 countries whose main position is that wealthy countries should accept their historical responsibility for climate change and greatly reduce their emissions while allowing the G77/China to continue its development. Many of these countries have also called on industrialized nations to provide financial support and technology for their climate-protection projects.

As the world's biggest carbon emitter, China has announced it would take voluntary steps to cut its carbon intensity, a measure of emissions per unit of GDP, by 40 percent to 45 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels. The country has also called for rich nations to heed the developing world's position on climate change.

India has expressed plans to reduce its carbon intensity by 20 percent to 25 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels. The measure is voluntary and non-binding and depends on "support from the international community."

Brazil aims for a voluntary reduction of 36 percent to 39 percent by 2020, as compared to the projected level of emissions for that year. This would be mainly done by limiting deforestation in the Amazon.

Other groups want their voices heard

Among the rest of the world, other negotiating blocks are also pushing for influence in Copenhagen. The African Group is made up of 50 countries that highlight their vulnerability to climate change and issues like poverty and access to resources. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) is a coalition of 43 small islands and low-lying coastal countries that share concerns about rising sea levels. The 49 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are the world's poorest countries - mostly in Africa - and their emissions are tiny, but they are also the least prepared for the changes ahead.

Getting all of these groups, each of which represents its own - sometimes unclear - interests, will be the task of negotiators in Copenhagen over the next two weeks.

ew/AFP/Reuters

Editor: Sean Sinico