Global trade to quadruple by 2030, HSBC study says | Business| Economy and finance news from a German perspective | DW | 08.10.2013
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Global trade to quadruple by 2030, HSBC study says

A study by British lender HSBC has suggested global trade will experience a huge pickup over the next decades. It said the phenomenon will be driven by huge infrastructure projects in emerging economies.

The HSBC study looked at the long-term prospects for international trade by 2030. Its "Global Connections Report," which also included the findings by researchers from the Oxford Economics think tank, claimed global trade volumes were likely to quadruple over the next 16 years.

It said the boost would first and foremost be based on huge demand in emerging nations in need of a better and more modern infrastructure to match their economic growth. In Asia alone, more than $10 trillion (7.4 trillion euros) would be required to modernize and expand transportation networks and power supply systems.

The Global Connections Report indicated that Germany would be one of the nations to profit tremendously from the development, with its focus on high-tech and innovation-rich products.

Race for lucrative contracts

While arguing that German exports would rise only marginally until the end of 2015, the study said shipment volumes would surge by an annual rate of 4 percent as of 2016, with exports to Asia to increase by almost 8 percent per year.

The report indicated that Germany would be able to score with its broad spectrum of efficient machinery and transport technology, saying that emerging countries such as Vietnam and India might become equally important for German companies as China was for them right now.

But the focus would not only be on Asia, the study said. It expected global exports to sub-Saharan Africa to rise by 7 percent over the next two years. Bright prospects might also emerge for trade relations with Saudi Arabia and Mexico, which were also aiming to upgrade their infrastructure.

hg/rc (AFP, dpa)