Iran deadline looms
July 13, 2015
After blowing past three deadlines in the past 17 days of negotiations in Vienna, Austria, world leaders over the weekend expressed optimism that Monday would finally see an announcement of a comprehensive deal on Iran's nuclear program.
Officials at the talks told reporters there could be a final deal by the end of the day on Monday, but there were no guarantees. Iran's deputy foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, warned Iran's Tasnim news agency, "I cannot promise whether the remaining issues can be resolved tonight or tomorrow night. Some issues still remain unresolved and until they are solved, we cannot say an agreement has been reached."
Anonymous sources from both Iran and Germany cautioned reporters that there were still important issues to iron out, and either party could still walk away from the table.
So close, yet so far
An interim deal, the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), was originally passed on November 24, 2013, and was meant to tide negotiators over while the world waited for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The JPOA halted progress and rolled back parts of Iran's nuclear program in exchange for "limited" sanctions relief, according to the US Treasury.
The JPOA was set to expire on June 30, 2015, in anticipation of diplomats ironing out the JCPOA, but was extended last week to ensure talks could continue. The JPOA will expire at midnight in Vienna on Monday, making it the fourth upcoming deadline in these negotiations.
High-ranking diplomats from all sides expressed optimism that the end was nigh, but cautioned against being too confident.
"I hope we are finally entering the final phase of these marathon negotiations. I believe it," French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, speaking from Tehran, said the negotiations were "still steps away from reaching the intended peak."
"We are so close that if you look down from below you feel as if we have got there, but when you do get there you know there are still some steps to take," Rouhani said.
The foreign ministers of Russia and China returned to Vienna on Sunday night after leaving last week, and representatives from the EU, US, UK, France, Germany, China and Russia held a dinner on Sunday night.
US Secretary of State John Kerry said he was "hopeful" to meet with Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Javad Zarif again on Monday evening.
The last wrinkles
From the West's perspective, any deal would need to allow foreign inspectors into Iran's nuclear plants to ensure no weapon is in development.
After weeks of negotiation, a sticking point came when parties couldn't agree on how much access nuclear inspectors should be allowed to have when visiting Iran's known nuclear sites. Iran said too much access would allow inspectors to steal Iranian military secrets, tantamount to spying. Negotiators insist that the lack of this access would render any deal toothless. Major disagreements also erupted over how long certain remaining embargoes should last, such as the restrictions on the import of technology.
Iran also called on the UN to lift its arms embargo, arguing that the UN Security Council should stop describing Iran's nuclear activity as "illegal."
Diplomats involved say there is "little appetite" for the talks to extend past Monday.
Rapprochement between enemies, unhappy friends
The proposed nuclear deal will bring an end to 13 years of standoff between the West and Iran over Tehran's nuclear plans. In exchange for halting any development of a nuclear weapon, Iran could stand to gain tens of billions thanks to sanctions relief, opening its borders to more foreign business and resuming oil exports.
The idea of reconciliation between Iran and the US is perturbing to many of America's allies in the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia and especially Israel. After years of threatening strikes on Iran and cajoling the US to maintain a hard line on, and tough sanctions against, Iran, Israel remained close to silent on the progress of the talks.
Israeli defense minister Moshe Yaalon released a statement just prior to an announcement from negotiators in Vienna, saying that the pending agreement - which Israel assumed to be a "bad nuclear deal" - would force Israel to "defend itself, by itself."
mes/msh (AP, AFP, Reuters)