美研究:中国将具更大威慑力 | 德国之声 来自德国 介绍德国 | DW | 03.05.2013
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时政风云

美研究:中国将具更大威慑力

美国智库一项研究指出,中国有可能利用其日益增长的实力来试图迫使日本在两国对峙中让步,但北京是否愿意与美国及其盟友形成冷战式的对峙还值得怀疑。

Staff members check a carrier-borne J-15 fighter jet on China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, in this undated handout photo released by Xinhua News Agency on November 25, 2012. China has successfully conducted flight landing on its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, after its delivery to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy on September 25, 2012, Xinhua News Agency reported. REUTERS/Xinhua/Zha Chunming (CHINA - Tags: MILITARY SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY POLITICS TRANSPORT) FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR SALE FOR MARKETING OR ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS. THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. IT IS DISTRIBUTED, EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY REUTERS, AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS. CHINA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN CHINA. YES

Erstes Flugzeug auf chinesischem Flugzeugträger gelandet

(德国之声中文网)位于华盛顿的卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)周四发表的报告,旨在对中国的崛起及其未来数年对美日联盟造成的影响进行有史以来最为全面翔实的公开评估。

中国的国防开支近年来不断攀升,在与日本关系日益紧张的背景下,中国频频派出船只靠近具有主权争议的岛屿,已经为地区局势敲响了警钟。

中国不会轻易冒险

卡内基基金会的这份报告指出,中国可能将武力视为处理对外纠纷的最后手段,不会轻易使用,但北京可能对争议岛屿(中称钓鱼岛,日称尖阁列岛)的意义予以特别重视。

An aerial photo shows a Chinese marine surveillance ship Haijian No. 66 (C) cruising next to Japan Coast Guard patrol ships in the East China Sea, near known as Senkaku isles in Japan and Diaoyu islands in China, in this photo taken by Kyodo April 23, 2013. Japanese nationalists sailed a flotilla of boats on Tuesday in waters near islands at the centre of a row between China and Japan, putting further strain on Tokyo's tense ties with Beijing as a group of more than 160 Japanese lawmakers visited a shrine seen by critics a symbol of Japan's past militarism. Japanese and Chinese patrol ships have been playing a cat-and-mouse game near the Japanese-controlled East China Sea islands, where China is seeking to assert its claim to sovereignty by sending ships into the disputed waters. Mandatory Credit. REUTERS/Kyodo (JAPAN - Tags: POLITICS) FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR SALE FOR MARKETING OR ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS. THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. IT IS DISTRIBUTED, EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY REUTERS, AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS. MANDATORY CREDIT. JAPAN OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN JAPAN. YES

中日船只在争议岛屿附近对峙

报告写道,在未来15到20年中,最有可能对美日联盟构成挑战的潜在威胁,并不是中国和日本或美国发生大规模军事冲突,而是北京日益增长的威慑强制力量--不断提升的军事力量可能帮助北京在不动用军事攻击手段的情况下,对中日岛屿主权争议施加影响,或者试图解决争议。

卡内基基金会研究认为,至少到2030年,中国针对美国及其盟友发动"亚洲冷战",或者中国主导亚洲事务这样的"剧变",应该不会发生。

这份篇幅为395页的报告由九名专家联合撰写,其中主笔是退役的中国安全问题专家史文(Michael Swaine)。他们此次避免了过去相似的中国研究仅仅考虑军事因素而忽略其它,或者总是做出最糟预测的误区。

对日态度强硬与否取决于中国经济增长?

该报告设想了中国可能发生的两种情景:一是其经济可能以更为缓和的速度继续增长,每年的增长率大概4%到5%左右,而北京领导层将聚焦于维护国内稳定。在这种情况下,中国在未来15到20年内,可能会对日本以及美日联盟采取"克制和大面积防御姿态",大体上和现有政策保持一致。

但第二种情况也是可能出现的,那就是中国维持经济高增长,从而也会采取越来越自信武断的立场。中国可能会尝试着增加对日本施压,但也可能会继续寻求经济合作,尽量避免过度惊动东京和华盛顿。

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe speaks next to a map showing participating countries in rule-making negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) during a news conference at his official residence in Tokyo March 15, 2013. Abe announced on Friday that Tokyo will seek to join talks on a U.S.-led Pacific free trade pact which proponents say will tap vibrant regional growth, open Japan to tough competition and boost momentum for reforms needed to revive the long-stagnant economy. REUTERS/Toru Hanai (JAPAN - Tags: BUSINESS POLITICS)

“鹰派”安倍晋三注重美日联盟

去年年底重返首相宝座的保守派政治家安倍晋三,已经在提高国防开支、修改二战后制定的日本和平宪法等方面做出了实际的动作。但是这份卡内基报告对于日本大幅调整对华政策表示怀疑,主要原因包括和平宪法的制约、日本经济增长疲软、社会持续老龄化以及两国经济利益的千丝万缕联系。

报告写道:"尽管最近一段时间两国之间的对立性气氛暂时占了上风,但是日本很有可能会继续采取对华合作的政策,使用刚柔并济的策略。"尽管有人猜测,华盛顿可能缩减驻日的军事力量,但日本仍将其与美国之间的盟友关系视为头等要务。

来源:法新社 编译:雨涵

责编:洪沙

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