中国影子银行的危险加剧 | 经济纵横 | DW | 14.03.2013
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经济纵横

中国影子银行的危险加剧

温州高利贷系统崩盘只是全国民间借贷市场这一金融灰色地带危机的一个缩影 。有专家认为,若无严格监管,有可能酿成中国式信贷危机。

A bank teller counts renminbi bank notes in Shenyang, northeast China 13 January 2010. The Chinese central bank, BOC (Peoples Bank of China) raised the deposit reserve requirement for 0.5 percentage points to be effective 18 January. This move is seen as a bid to tighten money supply after four times lowering rates since June 2008 in order to stimulate the economy. The move led to a 2.11 percentage drop in the benchmark Shanghai Composite stock index. EPA/MARK

中国影子银行危险增加

(德国之声中文网)在中国,灰色金融市场蓬勃发展。 2012年,不受监管的贷款高达二万亿欧元。银行家们警告信贷泡沫和高利贷等高风险金融产品可能崩溃 -就如同2008年美国发生的金融危机。

温家宝在北京召开的全国人大会议上发表的政府报告中,指出 "金融领域有潜在的风险"。专家们认为,温家宝的此番讲话对中国金融领域存在的危机显然只是轻描淡写。一家国际康采恩的代表警告说,"目前一颗定时炸弹的时针正在走动","情况将不会出现转机。"

非正规融资与贷款

An employee counts Chinese 100 yuan banknotes at a branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in Huaibei, Anhui province, July 6, 2012. China's central bank cut interest rates for the second time in a matter of weeks on Thursday, stepping up efforts to bolster an economy that last quarter probably suffered its weakest growth since the global financial crisis. REUTERS/Stringer (CHINA - Tags: BUSINESS POLITICS) CHINA OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN CHINA

中国非正规贷款存在危险

有分析称,"中国影子银行的非正规融资和贷款蓬勃发展","当前的许多产品与金融危机前美国的资产抵押债券(CDO)一样,都处于不受监管的状况。"

中国的影子银行领域包括蓬勃发展的信托基金,不可靠的资产管理,地方政府的融资(地方政府融资平台)和地下钱庄等。据瑞士信用集团(Crédit Suisse )估计,去年,中国的大小非正规贷款总额高达22,8万亿元,约合2,8万亿欧元,占中国经济总量的44%,占所有未偿还贷款的四分之一以及去年新发放贷款的50%。

无法看透的风险

中国银行的负责人肖钢说,这种理财产品通过投资和贷款来获得保障。 "但几乎没有人知道,谁能够保障什么",与美国所发生的金融危机一样,其风险无法看透。中国银行负责人肖钢很早以前就谈到"庞氏骗局" ,称这样一条传销式的高利贷金字塔集资链很容易断裂。 "中国日报"援引肖钢的话说"在一定的条件下,投资者一旦失去信心并减少他们的购买或退出理财产品,这样的击鼓传花便会停止。 "

A Chinese man walks past a branch of Bank of China (BOC) in Fuzhou city, southeast Chinas Fujian province, July 11, 2008.Two major Chinese banks, Industrial Bank of China (ICBC) and Bank of China (BOC) that own US$8 billion in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities said they welcomed the US governments decision to help the troubled mortgage lenders. BOC said last month it owned US$7.5 billion in Fannie and Freddie bonds after cutting its holdings by about 25%. The bank also held US$5.2 billion in mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the two agencies. ICBC said in late August it owned US$465 million in Fannie and Freddie debt, plus US$2.2 billion in mortgage-backed securities issued by the two companies. It said that was just 0.20% of its total holdings. Both state-owned banks declined to say whether they expect to lose money on their securities. +++(c) dpa - Report+++

中国银行担心引发信贷危机



肖钢担心,影子银行的问题可能会感染正常的银行业务系统,并引发信贷紧缩,就如同2008年美国爆发的金融危机。市场受到压力时,就有可能发生"偿付能力危机"。经济学家们认为,如果通货膨胀日益严重,有必要加息,就有可能导致泡沫破灭。

地下银行危机敲响警钟

瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse)认为,较高的利率可能会导致投资和资产管理市场上资本流动枯竭并引发破产。如果正规的银行提供援助,有可能导致贷款短缺的后果。信贷紧缩会给过热的房地产市场和地方债券带来灾难性的影响, "不良贷款将大幅上升。"

2012年,浙江省温州市地下银行系统的危机已经敲响警钟。在中国经济蓬勃发展的地区,许多民营企业都依赖非正式信贷市场 - 既由不透明的企业,投资者,非法放债人或高利贷发放者组成的信贷系统。当时,由于出口增速下滑,信贷市场的泡沫破灭,因此,政府不得不求助于大银行救援。

消息来源:德通社 编译:李京慧

责编:文木

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