WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.000 --> 00:00:03.079 An energy crisis? 2 00:00:03.560 --> 00:00:05.399 A climate crisis? 3 00:00:06.360 --> 00:00:08.630 And an identity crisis. 4 00:00:08.640 --> 00:00:11.840 Europe's economy is at a turning point. 5 00:00:12.080 --> 00:00:14.790 I think Europe actually is pretty good at when we have a bit of 6 00:00:14.800 --> 00:00:17.829 a crisis to do something with it. 7 00:00:17.840 --> 00:00:20.790 It's sad maybe that you need to, but I think that's, you know, that's 8 00:00:20.800 --> 00:00:22.069 just part of reality. 9 00:00:22.079 --> 00:00:24.509 As the war continues to rage in Ukraine, 10 00:00:24.520 --> 00:00:28.360 European leaders are facing the challenge of a lifetime. 11 00:00:29.110 --> 00:00:32.110 First, there's the prospect of a winter without Russian gas. 12 00:00:32.600 --> 00:00:36.710 Then there's a skyrocketing cost of living and impending recession, 13 00:00:37.110 --> 00:00:40.510 and the economic threat posed by extreme weather. 14 00:00:40.790 --> 00:00:43.830 All this happening at a time when the very notion of 15 00:00:43.830 --> 00:00:46.460 European unity is in question. 16 00:00:46.470 --> 00:00:49.750 If there's an emergency, who do you call in the European Union? 17 00:00:49.750 --> 00:00:50.780 You don't call Brussels. 18 00:00:50.790 --> 00:00:53.930 You usually think about Paris or Berlin. 19 00:00:54.150 --> 00:00:56.700 In this video, we'll take an in-depth look at the 20 00:00:56.710 --> 00:00:58.950 state of the European economy. 21 00:00:59.110 --> 00:01:02.060 Its greatest strengths and biggest vulnerabilities. 22 00:01:02.070 --> 00:01:05.790 In times of crisis, we'll ask what it needs to do to keep 23 00:01:05.800 --> 00:01:09.030 up with the likes of China and the United States, and whether 24 00:01:09.030 --> 00:01:13.470 national differences can be set aside in favour of a common purpose. 25 00:01:15.050 --> 00:01:17.550 That's all coming up on business beyond. 26 00:01:19.959 --> 00:01:22.429 First, let's get the basics out of the way. 27 00:01:22.440 --> 00:01:24.429 In this video, we'll be talking a lot about 28 00:01:24.440 --> 00:01:28.480 the European Union, but also about Europe as a continent. 29 00:01:28.840 --> 00:01:31.880 It's an important distinction, so let's take a look at a map. 30 00:01:32.600 --> 00:01:36.360 The European Union is made-up of these 27 countries. 31 00:01:36.920 --> 00:01:39.470 the United Kingdom used to be an important member, 32 00:01:39.480 --> 00:01:44.360 but officially left the block in January of 2020. 33 00:01:44.360 --> 00:01:47.460 Several more countries are on some kind of a path to membership. 34 00:01:47.520 --> 00:01:52.560 These include Albania, Moldova, N, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey 35 00:01:52.560 --> 00:01:55.580 and most recently, Ukraine. 36 00:01:56.520 --> 00:01:59.880 Geographically, though, the continent of Europe is much larger, 37 00:01:59.880 --> 00:02:04.240 covering a total of 45 countries, including the Western and most 38 00:02:04.240 --> 00:02:06.760 populous of Russia. 39 00:02:07.760 --> 00:02:10.750 The European Union we know today has its roots in an 40 00:02:10.760 --> 00:02:13.680 economic agreement on coal and. 41 00:02:14.810 --> 00:02:20.360 In 1952, scarred by the horrors of World War 2 W Germany, France, Italy, 42 00:02:20.370 --> 00:02:23.030 the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg formed 43 00:02:23.040 --> 00:02:26.200 the European Coal and Steel Community. 44 00:02:26.919 --> 00:02:30.120 The idea was that if countries manage these key industries together, 45 00:02:30.320 --> 00:02:34.160 no one nation would be able to build weapons to use against another. 46 00:02:35.919 --> 00:02:38.630 Over the next few decades, more countries joined a club whose 47 00:02:38.639 --> 00:02:43.360 interests and identity was moving far beyond coal and steel. 48 00:02:43.560 --> 00:02:46.800 In 1993, the single market was launched, 49 00:02:47.040 --> 00:02:51.840 allowing the free movement of people, goods, services and money. 50 00:02:53.560 --> 00:02:56.919 Further expansion followed, and in 2002 the EU introduced 51 00:02:56.960 --> 00:02:58.920 a single currency. 52 00:02:59.919 --> 00:03:04.080 At present, it's used in 19 out of 27 countries. 53 00:03:06.040 --> 00:03:09.120 Since its inception, the European Union has faced a lot 54 00:03:09.120 --> 00:03:10.950 of internal division. 55 00:03:10.960 --> 00:03:14.720 During the global financial crisis, countries disagreed over how to share 56 00:03:14.720 --> 00:03:19.240 the costs of richer, more frugal nations with poorer, 57 00:03:19.240 --> 00:03:21.040 more indebted ones. 58 00:03:21.830 --> 00:03:25.790 Then, in 2016, breakfast the United Kingdom, one of 59 00:03:25.790 --> 00:03:29.630 the most important members of the EU, voted to leave the block. 60 00:03:30.110 --> 00:03:33.230 The decision sent shock waves across Europe and the world. 61 00:03:34.800 --> 00:03:38.240 But none of these crises, compared to what happened on the 24th 62 00:03:38.240 --> 00:03:43.240 of February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine for the 63 00:03:43.240 --> 00:03:46.880 first time in decades, had returned to Europe. 64 00:03:47.640 --> 00:03:51.800 The reaction from the was decisive and once again, in 65 00:03:51.800 --> 00:03:57.720 the centre of Europe, innocent women, men and children are dying of fear 66 00:03:57.720 --> 00:03:59.080 for their lives. 67 00:03:59.950 --> 00:04:06.270 We condemn this barbaric attack and the cynical arguments to justify it. 68 00:04:06.950 --> 00:04:12.510 It is President Putin who is bringing war back to Europe and in 69 00:04:12.510 --> 00:04:14.310 these dark hours. 70 00:04:15.280 --> 00:04:19.600 The European Union and its people stand by Ukraine and its people. 71 00:04:20.170 --> 00:04:22.950 The EUS immediate response was indeed united, 72 00:04:22.960 --> 00:04:25.790 with countries agreeing to impose economic sanctions on 73 00:04:25.800 --> 00:04:29.060 Russia and to help millions of Ukrainian refugees. 74 00:04:29.960 --> 00:04:31.993 If you think about Europe, 75 00:04:33.145 --> 00:04:34.928 on the 23rd of February and today, 76 00:04:35.560 --> 00:04:40.390 the steps have been gigantic and the shifts have been huge. 77 00:04:41.960 --> 00:04:44.750 But maintaining that unity has proven a challenge. 78 00:04:44.760 --> 00:04:47.470 European countries have different levels of reliance on 79 00:04:47.480 --> 00:04:51.360 Russian, and some member states have been less enthusiastic 80 00:04:51.360 --> 00:04:55.120 about imposing ever more aggressive restrictions on Moscow. 81 00:04:55.760 --> 00:04:58.820 In the first months we saw quite impressive unity. 82 00:05:00.170 --> 00:05:03.033 Purpose and also of willingness to 83 00:05:04.012 --> 00:05:05.596 to put in place the the sanctions 84 00:05:06.200 --> 00:05:10.270 butas we got onto the 6th and discussions of the 7th sections 85 00:05:10.279 --> 00:05:14.950 packages you can you can see that the sort of the line between 86 00:05:14.960 --> 00:05:17.700 political cost at home and. 87 00:05:17.710 --> 00:05:20.380 Perceived impact that the previous rounds of sanctions 88 00:05:20.390 --> 00:05:22.870 packages were having. 89 00:05:23.839 --> 00:05:27.390 In Russia was was perceived as being kind of you know slightly on 90 00:05:27.400 --> 00:05:29.710 the wrong side of what Europeans were comfortable with. 91 00:05:29.720 --> 00:05:33.560 And you know there was a lot of coverage of of of some member states, 92 00:05:33.800 --> 00:05:37.760 particularly Hungary the lesser extent for vacuums that are looking 93 00:05:37.839 --> 00:05:39.830 for belts and and slowing things down. 94 00:05:39.839 --> 00:05:43.360 But you know I think that there was a sort of a general sense that we 95 00:05:43.600 --> 00:05:47.279 were coming to the to the limits of of what Europe felt 96 00:05:47.279 --> 00:05:49.920 it could sustain politically. 97 00:05:50.910 --> 00:05:55.510 Because, you know, in in in parts of of rising, rising 98 00:05:55.510 --> 00:06:00.630 energy crisis and the cost of living, which are not only a result of the 99 00:06:00.630 --> 00:06:03.740 conflict, but you know, that's played a major part. 100 00:06:03.750 --> 00:06:06.870 Even before Russia's war in Ukraine, life in Europe had 101 00:06:06.870 --> 00:06:08.940 been getting more expensive. 102 00:06:08.950 --> 00:06:12.830 As COVID-19 restrictions were lifted, people started spending the cash 103 00:06:12.830 --> 00:06:15.220 they'd been hoarding during the pandemic. 104 00:06:15.230 --> 00:06:19.310 That, as well as supply chain issues in China, pushed prices up. 105 00:06:20.120 --> 00:06:22.430 But the war in Ukraine has catapulted Europe into 106 00:06:22.440 --> 00:06:24.800 a full blown cost of living. 107 00:06:26.000 --> 00:06:28.950 All over the continent, people are worrying about how to 108 00:06:28.960 --> 00:06:30.680 pay their bills. 109 00:06:32.120 --> 00:06:35.120 The Baltic states are at the forefront of the problem due 110 00:06:35.120 --> 00:06:37.760 to their close trade ties with Russia. 111 00:06:38.760 --> 00:06:42.360 But inflation has skyrocketed across the board, hitting figures 112 00:06:42.360 --> 00:06:45.040 that haven't been seen in decades. 113 00:06:51.790 --> 00:06:54.790 Many national governments have announced relief packages to 114 00:06:54.790 --> 00:06:57.220 help households get through winter. 115 00:06:57.230 --> 00:07:00.850 Still, analysts believe there could be unrest to come. 116 00:07:00.962 --> 00:07:03.412 Rising bills, protests, 117 00:07:03.950 --> 00:07:07.430 discontent, these are all likely. 118 00:07:09.120 --> 00:07:12.600 Situations in coming weeks and months, this is likely to be a 119 00:07:12.600 --> 00:07:14.670 winter of discontent. 120 00:07:14.680 --> 00:07:17.150 But it's not just this winter that matters. 121 00:07:17.160 --> 00:07:20.320 The war in Ukraine has made European leaders determined to wean 122 00:07:20.320 --> 00:07:24.000 themselves off Russian energy for good, Easier said. 123 00:07:24.510 --> 00:07:25.990 Then done. 124 00:07:26.070 --> 00:07:28.020 First of all, it's a large thing to replace. 125 00:07:28.030 --> 00:07:30.150 So it's not easy. 126 00:07:30.550 --> 00:07:34.510 I think people are making quite large turns in policy to 127 00:07:34.710 --> 00:07:36.780 basically throw everything at it. 128 00:07:36.790 --> 00:07:38.620 You know, we do call a little bit, we do 129 00:07:38.630 --> 00:07:41.650 renewables more and we do kind of everything. 130 00:07:43.080 --> 00:07:45.870 What I haven't heard is a more structural solution that says, 131 00:07:45.880 --> 00:07:47.600 you know, if we have to do it. 132 00:07:49.320 --> 00:07:51.990 We will solve the supply more fundamentally, 133 00:07:52.000 --> 00:07:54.950 both with renewables and maybe some of the old technology, 134 00:07:54.960 --> 00:07:57.710 with some carbon capture or something like that. 135 00:07:57.720 --> 00:08:01.080 And that brings us to another urgent challenge for Europe, 136 00:08:01.440 --> 00:08:02.870 the climate crisis. 137 00:08:02.880 --> 00:08:06.280 This summer, the continent was struck by a severe drought, 138 00:08:06.520 --> 00:08:08.380 causing rivers to dry up. 139 00:08:08.390 --> 00:08:10.390 And wildfires to spread. 140 00:08:11.360 --> 00:08:15.120 The hot, dry conditions put a big strain on water levels 141 00:08:15.120 --> 00:08:18.360 in Germany's Rhine, and Italy's dropped so low that 142 00:08:18.360 --> 00:08:21.380 larger ships were no longer able to pass through. 143 00:08:21.680 --> 00:08:25.400 Farmers faced poorer harvests and higher production costs. 144 00:08:27.000 --> 00:08:29.110 Against the backdrop of the energy crisis, 145 00:08:29.120 --> 00:08:32.720 leaders were forced to balance immediate needs against long term 146 00:08:32.720 --> 00:08:35.509 climate commitments such as the green. 147 00:08:36.559 --> 00:08:41.520 Landmark plan to become climate neutral by 2050. 148 00:08:41.520 --> 00:08:45.120 Some of the energy efficiency conversations that we've been having, 149 00:08:45.280 --> 00:08:48.520 that we've seen over over the summer that you know, we're 150 00:08:48.520 --> 00:08:50.959 a lot further forward on some elements. 151 00:08:52.210 --> 00:08:55.960 Than we might have been, but I think that what is? 152 00:08:57.150 --> 00:09:01.270 Under threat is the urgency around the implementation of the the 153 00:09:01.270 --> 00:09:04.490 European Green Deal from from a European point of view, 154 00:09:04.510 --> 00:09:08.540 this has gone from being, you know, I would say kind of, yeah, 155 00:09:08.550 --> 00:09:12.150 top of the list a year ago being somewhere a little further down in 156 00:09:12.150 --> 00:09:15.950 terms of immediate security needs at the moment for European leaders. 157 00:09:15.960 --> 00:09:17.620 And I think that that is a problem. 158 00:09:17.630 --> 00:09:22.030 But I think we should go a little bit beyond the present crisis to think, 159 00:09:22.230 --> 00:09:25.790 you know, long term, what does this mean long term? 160 00:09:25.790 --> 00:09:28.200 It means that if. 161 00:09:28.210 --> 00:09:32.590 If European countries and the EU are able to. 162 00:09:34.520 --> 00:09:38.760 Take advantage of the current crisis and use it to 163 00:09:39.760 --> 00:09:43.400 accelerate the green transition. 164 00:09:45.210 --> 00:09:48.320 That would confirm Europe's leadership role in terms of climate 165 00:09:48.340 --> 00:09:52.880 policy and it would give it give, I think, the continent. 166 00:09:54.760 --> 00:09:58.960 That step ahead with respect to the rest of the world in leading. 167 00:10:00.630 --> 00:10:06.510 Global the global fight against against the climate crisis. 168 00:10:06.670 --> 00:10:11.390 And that's where Europe should look towards. 169 00:10:12.960 --> 00:10:15.830 Thinking about the future and if Europe is to become a global leader 170 00:10:15.840 --> 00:10:19.910 in the green transition, it will have to prove that it can innovate. 171 00:10:20.340 --> 00:10:23.550 And in this area, it might have its work cut out. 172 00:10:23.840 --> 00:10:26.390 After all, the continent doesn't exactly have 173 00:10:26.400 --> 00:10:29.840 the best reputation for, well, getting things done. 174 00:10:31.679 --> 00:10:35.000 Sven Smith is the lead author of a research paper about Europe's 175 00:10:35.000 --> 00:10:38.790 quote slow motion, corporate and technology crisis. 176 00:10:39.340 --> 00:10:44.120 It suggests the continent could lose between 2:00 and €4 trillion worth of 177 00:10:44.120 --> 00:10:47.600 value every year unless it plays technological catch up. 178 00:10:48.090 --> 00:10:50.510 Here's how he reached that colossal number. 179 00:10:50.520 --> 00:10:54.790 And if you don't calculate through sector by sector, what will happen if 180 00:10:54.800 --> 00:10:57.880 cars go autonomous and we don't lead in that technology? 181 00:10:57.880 --> 00:11:01.920 What will happen if AI becomes the way to do research 182 00:11:01.920 --> 00:11:04.939 in life sciences and we are not the leader in AI? 183 00:11:05.750 --> 00:11:09.510 And we take that disadvantage that basically would cut back the growth 184 00:11:09.550 --> 00:11:12.829 and prosperity of European firms and with that, Europe. 185 00:11:13.840 --> 00:11:16.270 By that amount, just take a look at this list. 186 00:11:16.280 --> 00:11:20.520 Of the world's ten biggest tech companies, 7 come from the US and 187 00:11:20.520 --> 00:11:21.430 three from Asia. 188 00:11:21.440 --> 00:11:24.679 Europe doesn't feature at all, according to researchers. 189 00:11:24.679 --> 00:11:26.839 It's not for a lack of ideas. 190 00:11:27.920 --> 00:11:31.480 It's not that we're not involved, innovative, we innovate, we have lots 191 00:11:31.480 --> 00:11:32.950 of ideas, we have great talent. 192 00:11:32.960 --> 00:11:34.470 That's not the issue. 193 00:11:34.480 --> 00:11:37.600 But the scaling is just harder because you start in the Netherlands 194 00:11:37.600 --> 00:11:41.280 and Germany, Austria, Spain, and then when you get bigger you find 195 00:11:41.400 --> 00:11:44.440 it was somewhere else and then the big player from somewhere else eats 196 00:11:44.440 --> 00:11:47.439 it because they already have the larger scale. 197 00:11:47.710 --> 00:11:51.790 So why is it so much harder for a company to expand in Europe? 198 00:11:52.150 --> 00:11:54.860 Well, imagine you're a software developer. 199 00:11:54.870 --> 00:11:57.180 They typically have to write the code for every country, 200 00:11:57.190 --> 00:11:59.820 not just because of language, which is 1, 201 00:11:59.830 --> 00:12:04.150 but also some of the rules on how a number is composed. 202 00:12:05.720 --> 00:12:07.910 In the phone system or in the banking system or something 203 00:12:07.920 --> 00:12:10.790 will just require you to write the code a few times. 204 00:12:10.800 --> 00:12:14.040 Which means that even for the same dollar you get less output. 205 00:12:14.480 --> 00:12:18.320 Yeah, that's just a very basic thing you might think that makes. 206 00:12:18.320 --> 00:12:19.910 No, that should make a difference. 207 00:12:19.920 --> 00:12:22.239 But if you're a five person startup. 208 00:12:22.710 --> 00:12:25.380 That can write the code once and then have a few 100 million 209 00:12:25.390 --> 00:12:27.060 customers, or you write the code once. 210 00:12:27.070 --> 00:12:30.020 If you're in the Netherlands, you have, you know, 70 million. 211 00:12:30.030 --> 00:12:33.170 If you're in Germany, you have 70 or 80 million, you know. 212 00:12:33.950 --> 00:12:36.109 That makes a vast difference. 213 00:12:36.309 --> 00:12:39.429 As well as having trouble scaling their business across Europe, 214 00:12:39.429 --> 00:12:42.670 many entrepreneurs also have trouble attracting investment. 215 00:12:43.870 --> 00:12:45.476 One of the issues we have 216 00:12:45.476 --> 00:12:47.309 in the European Union is also because 217 00:12:47.309 --> 00:12:49.350 of of the different regulations 218 00:12:49.350 --> 00:12:51.374 and of the different tax system that 219 00:12:51.750 --> 00:12:57.270 we have in the 27 member states is also quite complicated to fund 220 00:12:57.270 --> 00:13:01.429 startups and to attract venture capital, which of course is 221 00:13:01.429 --> 00:13:03.700 the basis of innovation. 222 00:13:03.710 --> 00:13:07.309 The EU` linguistic and cultural diversity is often cited 223 00:13:07.309 --> 00:13:11.429 as one of its biggest strengths, but it's also the driver of an 224 00:13:11.429 --> 00:13:15.309 uneasily resolved conflict between national and European identities. 225 00:13:16.200 --> 00:13:19.260 That tension plays out in economic narratives. 226 00:13:20.679 --> 00:13:24.480 Is the world's third largest economy almost on a par with, 227 00:13:24.920 --> 00:13:28.440 but you don't often hear described as a single entity. 228 00:13:28.520 --> 00:13:33.520 That tendency to favour national narratives over a common European has 229 00:13:33.520 --> 00:13:37.700 implications when it comes to how the continent is viewed on the world stage. 230 00:13:38.340 --> 00:13:39.933 We don't compare New York 231 00:13:39.933 --> 00:13:41.577 to Europe, but we compare 232 00:13:42.160 --> 00:13:43.440 France to the United States and 233 00:13:44.480 --> 00:13:47.847 France is rather happy because it's a proud nation 234 00:13:47.880 --> 00:13:52.523 and it has some things why it's good to be proud, 235 00:13:52.523 --> 00:13:53.860 236 00:13:53.870 --> 00:13:58.110 but we shouldn't dwarf Europe by only comparing one country 237 00:13:58.110 --> 00:13:59.790 with Europe in total. 238 00:13:59.990 --> 00:14:03.190 But it's not only languages and cultures that make it difficult 239 00:14:03.190 --> 00:14:05.420 to class Europe as a single entity. 240 00:14:05.429 --> 00:14:07.509 It's policy too. 241 00:14:07.950 --> 00:14:10.460 On the one hand, we have a common monetary policy, 242 00:14:10.470 --> 00:14:13.260 but we don't have a common economic policy. 243 00:14:13.270 --> 00:14:17.910 Now with the pandemic European governments gave 244 00:14:17.910 --> 00:14:20.930 the European Commission the executive of the European Union. 245 00:14:21.400 --> 00:14:22.700 Quite a bit of power. 246 00:14:22.710 --> 00:14:27.950 And quite a bit of of of space to coordinate. 247 00:14:29.520 --> 00:14:31.960 A European wide response. 248 00:14:33.040 --> 00:14:37.280 And, and and this has introduced some changes with the recovery fund, 249 00:14:37.280 --> 00:14:38.430 for instance. 250 00:14:38.440 --> 00:14:42.360 And what we don't know at the moment is whether governments 251 00:14:42.360 --> 00:14:46.160 are willing to extend that leeway that was given to 252 00:14:46.160 --> 00:14:49.880 the European Commission in the context of the pandemic, also 253 00:14:49.880 --> 00:14:54.520 to address some of the consequences of the cost of living crisis. 254 00:14:55.070 --> 00:14:58.350 So, for instance, we don't yet know whether. 255 00:15:00.480 --> 00:15:06.760 European Commission borrowing will be extended beyond 2022. 256 00:15:06.760 --> 00:15:09.230 While the EU faces a lot of internal debate on issues 257 00:15:09.240 --> 00:15:12.680 like taking on and sharing debt, there is one arena 258 00:15:12.680 --> 00:15:15.600 where it negotiates as a single entity. 259 00:15:16.880 --> 00:15:18.990 The block has dozens of trade agreements with 260 00:15:19.000 --> 00:15:20.999 countries all over the world. 261 00:15:22.080 --> 00:15:24.550 Interestingly, though, it does not have an agreement with its two 262 00:15:24.560 --> 00:15:26.440 biggest trading partners. 263 00:15:28.840 --> 00:15:31.110 Negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade 264 00:15:31.120 --> 00:15:36.200 and Investment Partnership, or began in 2013 but were abandoned 265 00:15:36.200 --> 00:15:39.300 in 2016 when Donald Trump came to power. 266 00:15:39.520 --> 00:15:43.400 His presidency created a tonal shift in discourse that left 267 00:15:43.400 --> 00:15:47.560 a once solid transatlantic relationship in uncharted waters. 268 00:15:48.080 --> 00:15:51.440 There is a lot of caution on this side of the Atlantic. 269 00:15:53.320 --> 00:15:57.760 I think all governments in Europe are convinced that Biden or 270 00:15:57.760 --> 00:16:02.280 a Democratic president will not win the 2024 presidential elections. 271 00:16:02.400 --> 00:16:06.760 So what we're seeing is a rather narrow window of opportunity. 272 00:16:08.670 --> 00:16:13.510 To get some things done, get some things done is #1 solidify NATO. 273 00:16:13.510 --> 00:16:17.310 And that is happening accelerated very much by Russians in Russia's 274 00:16:17.310 --> 00:16:19.780 invasion of of Ukraine. 275 00:16:19.790 --> 00:16:26.560 #2 the Transatlantic Trade and Technology Council I think can 276 00:16:26.560 --> 00:16:31.320 could potentially achieve some significant results, but I think 277 00:16:31.440 --> 00:16:37.520 also you know quite candid, quite a candid assessment that you know the. 278 00:16:38.150 --> 00:16:43.550 Europe as a whole cannot put all its eggs in one basket, and that 279 00:16:43.550 --> 00:16:45.060 is the American one. 280 00:16:45.070 --> 00:16:49.110 Speaking of not putting its eggs in one basket, the European Union had 281 00:16:49.110 --> 00:16:52.330 also been working towards reaching a deal with China. 282 00:16:52.630 --> 00:16:56.150 The Comprehensive Agreement on Investment had been eight years in 283 00:16:56.150 --> 00:16:59.590 the making and was supposed to be given the green light last year, 284 00:16:59.990 --> 00:17:03.250 but it has yet to be approved by the European Parliament. 285 00:17:04.840 --> 00:17:08.590 The Comprehensive Agreement on Investment is dead. 286 00:17:11.200 --> 00:17:15.400 China, or better some Chinese delegations have tried, 287 00:17:15.800 --> 00:17:18.940 I rephrase it, some delegations from China. 288 00:17:19.270 --> 00:17:22.990 Have tried to revive it in informal conversations, 289 00:17:22.990 --> 00:17:25.300 try to see whether there was a future. 290 00:17:25.310 --> 00:17:30.580 But the European Parliament the fact, froze the process back in 2021 when 291 00:17:30.590 --> 00:17:34.100 the European Union and China had that exchange of sanctions, 292 00:17:34.410 --> 00:17:38.910 and the European Parliament has no intention at the moment of voting 293 00:17:38.920 --> 00:17:40.700 for such an agreement. 294 00:17:40.710 --> 00:17:44.990 Those EU sanctions she's referring to targeted a handful of Chinese 295 00:17:44.990 --> 00:17:48.510 individuals and entities accused of being involved in the mass 296 00:17:48.510 --> 00:17:52.270 detention and persecution of the Uighur ethnic minority in the 297 00:17:52.270 --> 00:17:55.109 Xinjiang region in northwest China. 298 00:17:57.000 --> 00:17:59.679 Very weird sanctions. 299 00:18:00.900 --> 00:18:02.560 From the European. 300 00:18:03.960 --> 00:18:04.790 They were quite limited. 301 00:18:04.800 --> 00:18:09.640 They targeted a limited number of officials in in 302 00:18:09.660 --> 00:18:12.600 China and China responded with. 303 00:18:13.960 --> 00:18:17.119 This wide functions that hit bodies and. 304 00:18:17.170 --> 00:18:21.270 Institutes and single researchers and single parliamentarians. 305 00:18:21.350 --> 00:18:24.990 So to begin with, they were very unclear in terms 306 00:18:24.990 --> 00:18:28.060 of what to expect from these sanctions. 307 00:18:28.070 --> 00:18:33.100 And the fact that they came basically still during the pandemic 308 00:18:33.170 --> 00:18:36.510 also means that none of the people who were sanctioned had 309 00:18:36.510 --> 00:18:40.150 a chance to test them in terms of, for example, applying for a visa. 310 00:18:40.590 --> 00:18:44.030 So we don't know what what it means in that in that record. 311 00:18:44.030 --> 00:18:47.340 What we know is that both sides are trying to get them. 312 00:18:48.990 --> 00:18:52.830 Eliminated with Europe's future relationship with both China 313 00:18:52.830 --> 00:18:57.790 and the United States up in the air, some economists say it's time to look 314 00:18:57.790 --> 00:18:59.660 for new partnerships. 315 00:18:59.670 --> 00:19:03.670 If I speak about new partners in the world for Europe, 316 00:19:04.590 --> 00:19:06.389 I think about Africa. 317 00:19:07.359 --> 00:19:13.960 Africa is a continent which properly decides about the fate of Europe. 318 00:19:14.480 --> 00:19:21.760 The fate of Europe economically and the fate of Europe in 319 00:19:21.760 --> 00:19:24.429 its role in the New World. 320 00:19:24.990 --> 00:19:28.100 In recent years, the EU has signed several free trade 321 00:19:28.109 --> 00:19:30.550 deals with African countries. 322 00:19:30.590 --> 00:19:34.750 Many of them fall into the category of Economic Partnership Agreements. 323 00:19:34.990 --> 00:19:38.430 African nations benefit from 0 tariffs and full market 324 00:19:38.430 --> 00:19:39.939 access in the. 325 00:19:40.920 --> 00:19:44.000 They open up their own economies more slowly to 326 00:19:44.000 --> 00:19:48.040 the the volume of African European trade has risen 327 00:19:48.040 --> 00:19:52.160 as a result, including in the area of agricultural equipment. 328 00:19:52.280 --> 00:19:55.760 We can export technology, but we should know that they 329 00:19:55.760 --> 00:19:59.680 can improve it and that Africa has to improve the technologies, 330 00:19:59.840 --> 00:20:03.760 because not everything is optimal in Europe or agricultural products. 331 00:20:03.760 --> 00:20:07.200 Agricultural products produced in Europe anot optimal. 332 00:20:07.420 --> 00:20:10.800 So we should look for an equal footing strategy. 333 00:20:11.310 --> 00:20:15.630 Europe with Africa and then Africa will become a partner of Europe. 334 00:20:15.950 --> 00:20:19.910 Not a new colony again, but a partner of Europe. 335 00:20:19.950 --> 00:20:23.310 Whether it's looking for new economic partners, providing 336 00:20:23.310 --> 00:20:27.510 fertile ground for innovation or dealing with the energy crisis, 337 00:20:27.920 --> 00:20:32.340 This is a defining moment for Europe's leaders and one which 338 00:20:32.350 --> 00:20:36.430 could see the balance of power shifting between member states. 339 00:20:36.710 --> 00:20:41.430 In terms of leadership, I would say that you know. 340 00:20:41.580 --> 00:20:45.220 Well past the Merkel era, in which Germany had 341 00:20:45.400 --> 00:20:48.629 uncontested leadership in Europe. 342 00:20:49.920 --> 00:20:53.510 With the election of McCoy in 2017, the sort of, 343 00:20:54.550 --> 00:20:56.780 shall we say, unipolar German leadership was 344 00:20:56.790 --> 00:21:01.310 already accompanied by the Franco German relationship. 345 00:21:01.510 --> 00:21:06.310 But I have long argued that with a diverse. 346 00:21:08.170 --> 00:21:10.699 European Union Franco, German leadership. 347 00:21:10.740 --> 00:21:13.690 Is not, is is necessary and necessary condition, 348 00:21:13.700 --> 00:21:17.700 but it's not a sufficient condition for to drive Europe. 349 00:21:17.740 --> 00:21:22.780 It has helped Europe overcome some of the gaps that exists 350 00:21:22.780 --> 00:21:29.090 within its fold and and and I think it really underscores 351 00:21:29.100 --> 00:21:34.420 the need for a leadership that is more diversified, that has, 352 00:21:34.420 --> 00:21:37.980 that gives a stronger role to Europe's periphery, 353 00:21:37.980 --> 00:21:40.929 that also gives a stronger role to the EU institutions. 354 00:21:41.260 --> 00:21:44.580 Italy's recent election of a far right coalition, known 355 00:21:44.580 --> 00:21:46.930 historically at least for its staunchly 356 00:21:46.940 --> 00:21:51.180 Eurosceptic nationalist rhetoric, further highlights the difficulty 357 00:21:51.180 --> 00:21:53.780 of advancing a common European. 358 00:21:54.750 --> 00:21:59.630 For European Commission president, promoting a common agenda in climate 359 00:21:59.630 --> 00:22:03.190 policy as well as other areas is a delicate balancing act. 360 00:22:03.750 --> 00:22:05.300 We must be careful. 361 00:22:05.310 --> 00:22:07.859 President von der Leyen is going this way. 362 00:22:07.869 --> 00:22:09.340 She knows where to go. 363 00:22:09.350 --> 00:22:12.390 She has a green pact and so on. 364 00:22:12.550 --> 00:22:17.869 She's going about making Europe stronger, but she's very careful. 365 00:22:17.990 --> 00:22:21.129 But how exactly would a stronger Europe look? 366 00:22:21.540 --> 00:22:24.170 And what role should it play on the world stage? 367 00:22:24.180 --> 00:22:26.890 There are a lot of things that the EU is doing 368 00:22:26.900 --> 00:22:30.619 or planning to do on economic policy. 369 00:22:32.190 --> 00:22:37.150 Which will strengthen Europe's Geo economic relevance. 370 00:22:37.630 --> 00:22:40.950 We're looking at, you know, because of COVID, 371 00:22:40.950 --> 00:22:45.230 because of US China rivalry, also because of the war. 372 00:22:46.950 --> 00:22:50.630 European countries as a whole are looking at what areas 373 00:22:50.630 --> 00:22:52.990 of their industry. 374 00:22:53.220 --> 00:22:54.770 Truly competitive. 375 00:22:54.780 --> 00:22:58.220 Speaking of competing, there are some vital areas where 376 00:22:58.220 --> 00:23:01.090 Europe already is a world leader. 377 00:23:01.100 --> 00:23:04.100 The continent cities are consistently ranked among the 378 00:23:04.100 --> 00:23:06.139 most liveable in the world. 379 00:23:07.710 --> 00:23:11.910 European nations also dominate the Good Country, a measure 380 00:23:11.910 --> 00:23:15.150 of a nation's positive global impact in areas including 381 00:23:15.150 --> 00:23:18.830 health and well-being, prosperity and peace and security. 382 00:23:20.590 --> 00:23:22.723 Where we are saying we are more equal 383 00:23:22.723 --> 00:23:24.130 and better and all that stuff is that 384 00:23:24.190 --> 00:23:26.357 the the very bottom in 385 00:23:26.363 --> 00:23:28.180 Europe is doing better than the US, 386 00:23:28.790 --> 00:23:32.750 but it's really only the bottom 10%15%, everywhere else. 387 00:23:33.260 --> 00:23:38.220 The wealth is higher in the US, but life expectancy and some sense of 388 00:23:38.220 --> 00:23:41.300 social cohesion and so on still feel very much better, 389 00:23:41.300 --> 00:23:47.460 and so it's very interesting that European Union is now a larger, 390 00:23:47.500 --> 00:23:50.740 a higher life expectancy since in the United States. 391 00:23:52.140 --> 00:23:57.100 United States had led a long time, but is a life expectancy 392 00:23:57.380 --> 00:24:00.419 is decreasing due to obesity. 393 00:24:01.430 --> 00:24:03.900 Say it too much, and due to narcotics, European Union 394 00:24:03.910 --> 00:24:09.910 as it is today, is in the in the lead, second only to Japan. 395 00:24:10.109 --> 00:24:13.790 So what does the EU have to do to convince its own people, 396 00:24:13.910 --> 00:24:17.950 as well as the rest of the world that it's a force to be reckoned with? 397 00:24:17.990 --> 00:24:22.830 We need to strengthen national institutions for democracy. 398 00:24:23.420 --> 00:24:30.060 Processes for democratic participation and and fireproof 399 00:24:30.340 --> 00:24:34.940 national democracies before fire proofing the European Union, 400 00:24:35.700 --> 00:24:38.859 of course, the EU as a construct. 401 00:24:40.109 --> 00:24:43.510 Can can do with more reform, but you're not going to be able to 402 00:24:43.510 --> 00:24:49.590 achieve it if you don't have national politics behind the European project. 403 00:24:49.590 --> 00:24:54.109 So we need to think really in in, in in simultaneous terms, it's not 404 00:24:54.109 --> 00:24:56.740 just about reforming the EU, it's also about strengthening 405 00:24:56.750 --> 00:24:58.709 democracies at home. 406 00:24:59.540 --> 00:25:02.660 And and and and and. 407 00:25:02.660 --> 00:25:05.980 The combination of the two can help strengthen the EUS 408 00:25:05.980 --> 00:25:08.020 performance more generally. 409 00:25:08.990 --> 00:25:13.270 The European project was born out of the ruins of World War 2. 410 00:25:13.270 --> 00:25:16.790 Now, more than 3/4 of a century later, a new era 411 00:25:16.790 --> 00:25:20.230 of conflict and crisis is forcing nations once again 412 00:25:20.230 --> 00:25:23.250 to define what it means to be European. 413 00:25:24.550 --> 00:25:28.310 How to express that in a radically different world? 414 00:25:36.160 --> 00:25:39.600 And that brings us to the end of this edition of Business Beyond. 415 00:25:39.880 --> 00:25:41.950 We'd love to know what you think about Europe's 416 00:25:41.960 --> 00:25:43.270 role on the world stage. 417 00:25:43.280 --> 00:25:45.950 Let us know in the comments and if you like what 418 00:25:45.960 --> 00:25:49.070 you see here, do check out the Business Beyond playlist. 419 00:25:49.080 --> 00:25:53.160 A good place to start would be our recent video on the US labour market. 420 00:25:53.880 --> 00:25:57.119 Until next time, for me and the team, it's goodbye and take care.