WEBVTT

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When I was a kid,

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I used to love playing these card games.

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Well, ok, I am not proud of myself either,

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but back in the 90s military toys were just a thing.

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We could see which plane was the fastest,

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which could carry the most payload

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and which could fly the farthest.

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But looking at those cards now,

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I realized one piece of information is missing...

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The fighter planes' CO2 footprint.

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And that's not the fault of those card games.

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We calculate the climate impact of almost everything:

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avocados, jeans, passenger planes.

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But it's close to impossible

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to pin down how much the military emits.

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We are talking about a sector

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with a budget of 2.2 trillion dollars

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that uses helicopters, tanks, ships,

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fighter planes.

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And none of these emissions

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have to be reported.

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How is it possible that such a huge sector

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can just fly under the radar?

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And what can we do to change that?

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But first a quick disclaimer:

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Talking about greenhouse gas emissions

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when it comes to war

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and the military may sound weird.

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War creates all sorts of destruction.

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People get killed, forests burned down

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and entire cities destroyed –

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and all that's horrible beyond imagination.

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But here, I want to focus

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on the emissions.

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The military's CO2 footprint

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is a massive blind spot –

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partially because data is really sparse.

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Look at this map.

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It shows the quality of the data

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that governments submit to the UN,

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when it comes to their military emissions.

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The reporting of the five countries

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with the biggest military budgets

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is all considered poor or very poor.

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India, the second-largest military by troop size,

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does not give any emission figures at all.

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"You can't begin to think about

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managing effectively

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your greenhouse gas emissions

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if you don't know what they are

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in the first place."

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Lindsay Cottrell works at the

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Conflict and Environment Observatory.

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"We've got at the moment

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very limited knowledge really.

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We've been trying to map this

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and assess it because

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it sits outside of the

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 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

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There's too many holes

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and we need governments

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to recognize the importance of this."

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The origin of this problem

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dates back to the Kyoto Protocol,

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a climate agreement adopted in 1997.

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Back then after strong lobbying

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from the United States,

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the world's military were exempted

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from declaring their emissions.

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Then came the Paris agreement in 2015

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that left it up to governments

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to decide how

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and where to cut their emissions.

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And the military reporting was – again –

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not made mandatory.

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That's why today we have no clue

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how much the world's armies emit.

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But we do know:

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the problem is getting bigger.

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Military spending worldwide

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grew 3.7% on average in 2022.

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In Eastern Europe,

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triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine,

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it went up by 58%.

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In Europe, part of this is going to

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modernizing the fighter jet fleet.

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Some countries are replacing

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their old F-16s,

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which are being sent to Ukraine,

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with these new F-35s.

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Right now, in Europe alone,

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there are around 120 F-35s in operation.

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But Lockheed Martin, its producer,

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expects this number

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to rise to 600 by 2030.

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The US plans to buy

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some 2,500 new units.

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Such long-term commitments

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are called "Lock in".

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The F-35s that are being bought now

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will fly – and burn fuel – up until 2070.

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According to one analysis,

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"For each 100 nautical miles flown" –

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that is around 185 km –

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"one single F-35 emits as much CO2

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as an average UK gasoline car

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driven for one year"

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So what do the world's armed

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forces have to say for themselves?

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We reached out to the big four –

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US, China, Russia and India  –

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for comment.

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But none of them got back to us.

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Military officials seem to see

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climate change mainly as a security risk

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Only a few such as NATO's Jens Stoltenberg

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call out their own emissions

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as part of the problem.

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"But we also need to ensure

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that our armed forces

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do their part when it comes to

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reducing emissions.

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There is no way we can get to net zero

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without also reducing emissions

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from the military sector."

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But it's hard to know

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how much of a reduction is needed,

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if nobody knows how much

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the military actually emits.

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That's why scientists started calculating.

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"We estimated it was somewhere

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between 3.3% and 7%

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of global emissions,

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with a best estimate of 5.5%".

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This is Stuart Parkinson.

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He co-wrote a study that calculated

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the global footprint of the military.

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"The number of military personnel

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was a key factor

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and spending was significant,

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military activity was significant.

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The number of large pieces of hardware.

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But a lot of this data is very hard to find

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or to attach directly to emissions.

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So, we just had to piece it together

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 from what we could."

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Most countries don't publish data

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on their military's greenhouse gas emissions,

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claiming it would be a risk

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to their national security.

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But they do like to talk about the size

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of their military with details about

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their aircraft fleet, troop size and so on.

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The researchers used data like this,

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when estimating the emissions of countries

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that withheld specific data.

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"One thing we do know about

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India and Russia and China

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is a good estimate of their size of military forces

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in terms of number of personnel.

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And then you look at the relationships

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between number of personnel and

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size of emissions in Western countries

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and you say, okay, well,

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roughly,

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those ratios are going to apply in those countries,

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depending on how many aircraft they have,

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and various other factors,

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so you just make a few assumptions."

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The US Armed Forces represent 39%

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of all the military spending on the planet.

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And all that money causes

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an unbelievable amount of emissions.

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As an institution the Pentagon

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is the biggest single greenhouse gas emitter

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 in the world.

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So big that it emits more greenhouse gases

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than entire countries,

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such as Sweden or Finland.

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And let's be clear:

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we are only talking about the emissions it takes

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to build up and sustain a military.

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If the worst case happens

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and that military actually goes to war...

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emissions go up immensely.

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Look at this graph that shows

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US military's greenhouse gas emissions

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from 1975 to 2018.

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In 1991 there's a spike –

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right when the first Gulf War happened.

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Then it goes down –

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as Cold War tensions eased,

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and US military bases abroad closed down.

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Then another spike from 2001,

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 after 9/11 and the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.

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But the conflict in Ukraine took measuring

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the environmental impact of war

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to a whole new level.

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It is a conflict in the big data era,

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where we can follow the battlefield

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through satellite images.

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And the Ukrainian government

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even publishes what environmental impact

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 military actions have.

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Including the units of equipment destroyed

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and the cost of emissions.

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This study funded by NGOs from Ukraine and Europe

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estimated that during the first year and a half

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after the Russian invasion in Ukraine

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150 million metric tonnes of CO2 were emitted.

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This is equivalent to Belgium's emissions

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 in the same period.

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"The war fighting

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generates quite a lot of emissions."

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Lennard de Klerk is a climate scientist

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and the lead author of this study.

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"The usage of fossil fuels for the tanks,

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fighter jets, but also the whole logistics behind,

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you know, both frontlines to bring new ammunition,

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 rotate soldiers,

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provide food, etc.

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And what I sort of initially expected that

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 that would be the biggest source

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of emissions.

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 But that is actually not the case."

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The biggest source of emissions

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comes from having to rebuild Ukraine.

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This accounts for 36% of the emissions.

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Warfare comes second with 25%.

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Then you have fires with 15%.

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Because in many cases,

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the firefighters cannot access the territory,

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so the fires burn up huge areas.

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Then civilian flights have to be diverted,

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which adds another chunk of emissions.

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The airspace over Ukraine is of course closed,

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and Russia has closed its airspace to Western airlines,

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as a response to economic sanctions.

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So a flight for example from London to Tokyo

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now takes around 15 hours,

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instead of the previous 11.

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Such re-routings put an extra

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18 million tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere

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in the first year and a half of the conflict.

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War also requires fuel to keep both armies running.

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But the Russian army have used three and a half times

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more fuel than the Ukrainians.

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According to the researchers,

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this is because the Russian supply lines are much longer

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than the Ukrainian ones.

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Another recent study has measured

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the impact of the war in Gaza.

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It calculated that,

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in the first 60 days of the conflict,

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the fighting generated more than

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281 thousand metric tonnes of CO2 –

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as much as 62 thousand 500 gasoline-powered cars

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 emit in one year –

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and that doesn't include future emissions

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 for rebuilding Gaza.

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Most of it is attributed to the Israeli air bombardment

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and invasion of the Palestinian territory.

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As we publish this video,

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the study has not yet been peer-reviewed,

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so it needs to be taken with caution.

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Still,

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it's more evidence

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that points to the enormous impact

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that war has on climate change.

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So where does that leave us?

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Military forces are a massive driver of climate change.

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War makes it worse –

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a LOT worse.

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So what can we do about it?

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"There is a tension, of course,

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between, you know, military capabilities

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and climate change and emissions.

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And it's up to, you know, the politicians

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to make the right decision

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where the balance should be.

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But you can only make

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a sort of transparent decision

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if you have the numbers."

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There have been some baby steps

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in the right direction.

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The UN has recognized the problem

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and is pushing for much greater transparency.

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Some countries are already declaring

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their military emissions in a more transparent way –

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such as the UK, Norway and Germany.

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NATO has been encouraging its members

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to deal with this issue.

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They released a methodology

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00:10:49.920 --> 00:10:52.040
providing guidelines and tools to calculate

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greenhouse gas emissions in the military.

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Experts say it has its flaws,

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but it might influence other armed forces.

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And a study found

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that the defense industry manufacturers

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00:11:02.120 --> 00:11:03.280
are also changing –

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setting Net Zero targets

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00:11:04.640 --> 00:11:06.080
and reporting their emissions.

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This could put pressure on the military to do the same.

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But reporting emissions alone is not enough.

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The military also needs

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to be willing to reduce them.

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And when military officials

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are pushed on this –

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they know their priorities.

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"If we had to choose between something

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which is green or combat effective.

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We have to choose the combat effective solution.

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So, the challenge is to ensure that in the future

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the combat effective solutions are the green ones."

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Reducing fossil fuel dependency,

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is a way for militaries

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to reduce their vulnerability.

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This could mean, among other things,

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00:11:41.160 --> 00:11:43.240
replacing jet flights by drones,

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00:11:43.520 --> 00:11:45.120
using electric vehicles

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00:11:45.400 --> 00:11:48.840
and installing renewable energy generation on military bases,

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as well as using nuclear power.

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This is most clearly shown by the 11 aircraft carriers

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of the United States,

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which are all nuclear-propelled.

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While this creates issues like nuclear waste,

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it reduces the problem

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00:12:03.040 --> 00:12:04.840
of greenhouse gas emissions.

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00:12:07.320 --> 00:12:08.840
"The proposals that are coming out

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00:12:08.840 --> 00:12:10.520
of the military establishment

331
00:12:10.520 --> 00:12:13.280
are all about more military,

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00:12:13.280 --> 00:12:14.680
all about more war fighting,

333
00:12:14.680 --> 00:12:16.920
all about preparing for more war fighting.

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00:12:16.920 --> 00:12:19.760
But this is completely the wrong direction

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00:12:19.760 --> 00:12:21.880
in which we need to be going.

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00:12:22.200 --> 00:12:23.360
We need to be building...

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We need to find ways to build trust.

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We need to find common ground."

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00:12:26.840 --> 00:12:29.360
"There's a much broader conversation to be had

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about military strategy and diplomacy

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and greater peace building and preventing, obviously,

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conflicts in the first place."

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From an environmental perspective,

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the best solution would obviously be

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to reduce the military forces everywhere.

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But in 2024, the opposite is happening,

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with military spending accelerating.

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This secretive sector is particularly hard to clean up.

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A first step would be to lift the veil

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on its role enforcing climate change.

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What do you think?

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How can we get the military to decarbonize?

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00:13:00.880 --> 00:13:02.160
Let us know in the comments.

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Subscribe to our channel and hit the like button.

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