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As Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire ends, hope endures in Lebanon

January 24, 2025

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is set to end on Sunday. Both sides have only partially fulfilled their obligations toward an enduring peace.

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Lebanese army soldiers patrol outside damaged buildings in southern Lebanon
Shortly before the end of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, both sides have yet to fulfill their obligations Image: Ali Hashisho/Xinhua/picture alliance

As the end of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah approaches with neither side having fulfilled its obligations toward an enduring peace, many people in the Middle East wonder what will happen next.

In late November, Israel and the Shiite political party and Iran-backed militia Hezbollah agreed on a 60-day ceasefire after nearly 14 months of fighting that killed nearly 2,800 people, the vast majority of them Lebanese civilians, according to the government of Lebanon. Large parts of the country's south and Beirut's suburbs have also been heavily damaged.

This weekend, the ceasefire will formally end.

Hezbollah — whose military wing is considered a terrorist group by the US, the EU and other governments — began firing rockets into Israel one day after the Hamas-led terror attacks on October 7, 2023.

The current agreement, brokered by the United States and France, stipulates among other things that Israel must withdraw completely from southern Lebanon by the deadline. Meanwhile, Hezbollah must end its presence south of the Litani River in southern Lebanon, which flows about 30 kilometers (18 miles) north of Israel's border.

So far, the agreement has not been fully respected by either side.

Israel has used military force while searching for suspected Hezbollah weapons depots in villages in southern Lebanon, while, according to media reports, some Hezbollah units are still on the ground.

"Overall, both sides, Israel and Hezbollah, as well as the crisis-ridden Lebanese state have a fundamental interest in maintaining the ceasefire," Merin Abbass, who heads the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's Lebanon office in Beirut, told DW.

It's also safe to say that thousands of civilians on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border are hoping for a continuation of the ceasefire.

Hezbollah in a weakened state

"Hezbollah is not in a position to resume fighting with Israel at the moment," said Abbass. "It has lost around 2,500 fighters in recent months."

Abbass pointed out that Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an airstrike, and Israel had "very deliberately attacked the group's arsenal of weapons." 

The fall of Bashar Assad's regime in Syria had deprived Hezbollah of an important supply line for weapons, ammunition and money, Abbass said, and even restricted the movement of fighters between Iran and Syria via Iraq.

"This weakens the organization greatly," he said.

Progress toward implementing ceasefire agreement

Lebanon's government is also playing a decisive role in the implementation of the ceasefire.

One of its key tasks in the ceasefire agreement is to ensure that the military holds down vacated Hezbollah positions by the time the deadline expires on Sunday, to prevent a power vacuum in southern Lebanon. 

"There have been positive movements where the Lebanese army and [ theUN Interim Force in Lebanon] have taken the place of Hezbollah forces, as stipulated in the agreement," Israeli government spokesmen David Mencer told reporters, referring to the UN peacekeeping mission UNIFIL.

"We've also made clear that these movements have not been fast enough, and there is much more work to do," he said, adding that Israeli officials want the agreement to continue.

A firefighter inspects the damage at the site of a rocket attack, launched from southern Lebanon into Israel
Thousands of civilians on both sides of the Lebanese-Israeli border hope the ceasefire will lead to a durable peace that allows them to return homeImage: JALAA MAREY/AFP

Lebanon has also implemented another element of the agreement: the election of a new president, Joseph Aoun, who took office in January, as did the country's new prime minister, Nawaf Salam.

But both are already under considerable time pressure, as the administration has not yet assembled a Cabinet that has been approved by the parliament, even though this is also part of the ceasefire agreement.

Security concerns amid troop withdrawal

According to the deal, Israel is to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon within the coming days. But it is doubtful whether this will happen.

On Friday, Israel's government issued a statement that Lebanon had "not yet fully enforced" its ceasefire obligations and that therefore "the phased withdrawal process will continue, in full coordination with the United States." 

Earlier this week, one Hezbollah lawmaker told Lebanon's National News Agency that a failure by Israel to withdraw troops from national territory would put the population in a new phase of confronting Israeli armed presence "through all possible means and methods guaranteed by international charters."

In a different statement, Hezbollah called on the Lebanese state to push for guarantees that Israel would completely withdraw.

Meanwhile, the newly elected administration has told US mediators that Israel's failure to withdraw on time could complicate the army's deployment, which would deal a blow to wider diplomatic efforts and the optimistic atmosphere in Lebanon.

People cross through the destroyed crossing border point between Lebanon and Syria
Lebanon's government can't cover reconstruction costs — international aid is neededImage: AP Photo/picture alliance

Hezbollah weapons are apparently still widely available in southern Lebanon. When UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently visited, he reported that UN troops had found more than 100 weapons caches belonging to the Shiite militia.

Though Israeli officials have expressed interest in security and stability in the border region, the government is also struggling with its own obligations under the agreement.

According to the The Jerusalem Post, a complete withdrawal from Lebanon would mean that Israel's armed forces would have only limited capabilities to respond to a possible violation of the agreement by Hezbollah — particularly, the return of fighters and weapons to the border region. Though Israel could still respond to drones and limited attacks, the newspaper reported, it would have few options to respond to ground troops.

Reconstruction without Hezbollah possible?

The Times of Israel reported that the United States intends to support Lebanon's army with $170 million (€162 million) to permanently prevent Hezbollah's presence.

"For Lebanon, it is key that the country can be rebuilt quickly," said Abbass of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation.

"On the one hand, it is important that the Shiites who have been expelled from the south can return to their homes. And, secondly, it should be the Lebanese state who does the reconstruction work and not Hezbollah," he added.

For years, Hezbollah had been deeply ingrained in Lebanon's social life — for example, by running its own social infrastructure in the form of Hezbollah-affiliated hospitals.

"This system must end, people must have the feeling that it is the state that is taking care of their needs," said Abbass.

So far, however, the Lebanese state has lacked the resources for reconstruction. This makes it all the more important for the international community to get involved in the task, especially the US and Saudi Arabia, he added.

On Thursday, Khalaf Al Habtoor, chairman of the Emirati enterprise Al Habtoor Group, has promised to invest in a "large and ambitious" project in Lebanon once the new government is formed, Lebanon's National News site reported.

Blue Line: A boundary between Israel and Lebanon

This article was originally written in German. 

Kersten Knipp
Kersten Knipp Political editor with a focus on the Middle East