What's next? Huge challenges await Sri Lanka's new leaders

Sri Lanka finds itself in the midst of an intense political and economic crisis after tens of thousands of protesters stormed the residences of the nation's president and prime minister over the weekend.     

The growing public fury over the acute economic turmoil — which has caused shortages of essential items, including food, fuel and medicine — and sweeping protests have prompted an announcement that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa would step down from his position. 

The speaker of the country's parliament and the prime minister's office said Rajapaksa would resign on Wednesday, although there has so far been no direct word from the president on his plans. 

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said he would also step down to allow an all-party interim government to take over. 

Amid the political turmoil, it's unclear how the situation in the island nation of 22 million people will unfold in the coming days and weeks. 

Will they resign, or won't they? 

Even though protesters have demanded the immediate resignations of the Sri Lankan president and prime minister, Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe haven't officially stepped down yet.  

"Their approval ratings have been very low for more than six months, which means that they had already lost their democratic mandate. But they agreed to resign only after these massive protests. And they still have not resigned," said Nishan de Mel, executive director of the Colombo-based think tank Verite Research. 

This is raising questions about whether they will indeed hand over their resignations or if they are just stalling for time.  

"There might be negotiations going on and they might be trying to buy some time to pursue other options instead of resigning. That is one interpretation," said Jayadeva Uyangoda, a constitutional expert and retired political science professor from the University of Colombo.  

Jehan Perera, executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, an educational and advocacy organization, said that the concerns regarding the resignations are not without cause.  

"The president has reportedly told the speaker about his decision to resign, but he has not made that announcement himself," he pointed out. "The prime minister says that he will resign once an interim government is formed. Those who want him to stay might delay the process of forming an interim government, which is concerning."  

Military support for Rajapaksas 

But Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, executive director of the Center for Policy Alternatives (CPA), said that things have come so far that it will be impossible for the president to hold on to power any longer.

"The president cannot hold on after the unprecedented events that happened recently. He has to go for new changes to come," he stressed.  

This view is shared by Cheran Rudhramoorthy, professor of sociology at the University of Windsor in Canada and a senior research fellow at the International Center for Ethnic Studies in Sri Lanka. Nevertheless, he underlined that the military remains a staunch supporter and defender of the president.  

According to the Sri Lankan constitution, if the president resigns, the prime minister becomes the acting president, until parliament convenes and selects a new president.  

If the prime minister also resigns along with the president, then the speaker of the parliament will become acting president for an interim period of one month or until the end of the original term of the president.  

"The first task of the new president would be to select a new prime minister, a new cabinet, help form a new interim government," said Uyangoda. 

Deeply divided

Despite the mass protests and violence, the Rajapaksa family continues to enjoy the support of a majority in parliament and might have a say in who will become the country's next leader. 

And given the deeply polarized political landscape, it would be tough for parties to join forces to form a stable interim coalition government.  

"Currently we have a politically fragmented parliament. It will be a difficult task," said Uyangoda.  

Also, it's not certain that an all-party government will be stable and successful.  

"The same crooks and criminals that were part of the ruling party will be part of it too. What we need is a total change in the system," said Rudhramoorthy. 

Nishan de Mel, of Verite Research, said that Sri Lankans "are feeling proud" of the protests. 

They are "likening it to the storming of the Bastille during the French Revolution. They believe that it was a real 'Independence Day' moment for them. But until the country gets new leadership and structural reforms that ensure that there would be no corruption, the problems will still be there. It is a difficult road ahead," he stressed. 

Need for reform 

Whoever takes over power in the country in the coming days will have to take on the daunting task of tackling the acute economic turmoil.  

"There has to be a change in the way politics is conducted in Sri Lanka to tackle the crisis. People are demanding more accountability and less corruption," said Uyangoda. "The question is whether the country's political class would be able to rise to the challenge. If the new government fails to introduce substantial policy and governance reforms, there would be continuous agitations in the country." 

An International Monetary Fund mission visited Colombo at the end of June to discuss financial support for Sri Lanka.  

In a statement released later, the global financial institution stressed the importance of stepping up structural reforms to address corruption in order to unlock Sri Lanka's full growth potential.  

"In order to tackle corruption in the country, institutions must be insulated from political interference. A representative parliament should also be formed to institute such reforms," said Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, founding director of the Sri Lanka Chapter of Transparency International and a founding co-convener of the Center for Monitoring Election Violence, which has observed major elections in Sri Lanka since 1997.  

A bailout deal with the IMF, however, would only be a part of the solution. To resolve the economic crisis, the government also needs to put in place measures to ensure structural reforms, public debt sustainability and accountability, among other things.    

Meanwhile, Sri Lankans from all walks of life continue to protest.

"The people of the country have achieved through protests what political parties have failed to do for years," Perera said. "But we must wait and see whether the people's revolution will lead to significant political and economic transformation in Sri Lanka."

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru