The Calm Before the Storm

So far, there has been no repeat of the images from the first Gulf War, when an estimated 1.8 million Iraqis fled their homes in search of sanctuary. But aid agencies are preparing for a similar scenario once military action gets underway.

The relative few who have so far fled have mostly made their way for Syria. Although Iraq shares borders with no less than six countries, only two of them -- Jordan and Syria -- permit other Arabs to enter without a visa. Though Jordan has said it will close its border, it has agreed to house some Iraqis in two camps that have been erected close to its border. Syria, which is more welcoming of its neighbors, is currently attracting an estimated 250 to 300 people each day to its capital city, Damascus. But, for the most part, the refugees so far have been foreigners or well-healed Iraqis.

Many of the "early arrivals" are not keen to admit they have fled in the face of the advancing war, instead maintaining that they are merely in Syria visiting family or friends. But whatever they say, the volume of their luggage and supplies often tells a different story.

Readying aid

Western diplomats say Syria, which is vehemently opposed to any U.S.-led military action against Iraq, long held out belief that war could be avoided and limited its preparations for any exodus of refugees. In a bid to make up for lost time, aid groups are now bringing in extra field staff to prepare for refugees heading across Syria's 600-kilometer border with Iraq once the fighting has actually begun.

Estimates on the number of refugees likely to flee Iraq vary, but agencies across the region are gearing up for the worst. Aid agencies in Syria are working together to coordinate relief efforts and are centering their efforts on a camp in the northeast of the country. With a capacity for 20,000 people, the camp is ready to receive refugees who will be bussed in from whichever border point they cross.

UN appeal

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has appealed to Iraq's neighbors to keep their borders open in the event of a conflict. Saudi Arabia has said it is prepared to take in as many as 100,000 refugees, which it will halt at the border.

If past experience is anything to go by, once military action actually begins, so too will the exodus, and Syria will not be the only destination for the hundreds of thousands of refugees. The International Red Cross and the Red Crescent are extending their capacity to be able to deal with as many as 250,000 people in camps near Iraq's border with Iran, Turkey, Syria and Jordan. But until such time as the refugees begin to move, all the aid workers can do is lay the foundations for refugee camps and begin the game of watching and waiting.

NEXT PAGE: Kurds begin fleeing central Iraq

Heading for the Hills

Meanwhile, fear in the face of war has sparked an exodus among Iraq's Kurdish population, and thousands of frightened people are leaving their homes and making for what they hope will be the safety of the hills.

The past few days have seen Iraqi Kurds begin to cross over from central Iraq into the autonomous Kurdish enclave in the northern part of the country. They come armed with tales of Iraqi troops moving closer to the demarcation line between central Iraq and the north, of mines and tanks around the northern oil city of Kirkuk and of skies patrolled by Iraqi helicopters and military aircraft. Such reports compound the already growing fear among the Kurdish population that Saddam Hussein might launch a chemical attack like the 1988 attack in Halabja, which killed more than 5,000 Iraqi Kurds.

So they are fleeing. Irbil, the capital city in the northern enclave is the starting point for many setting out on a journey with an undetermined destination. Some will go to friends or family in the mountains, others will find shelter at border refugee camps, but it is estimated that few will attempt to leave Iraqi territory altogether. Some say they would prefer to die on their own soil rather than to seek refuge in neighboring Turkey, where they still recall the scenes from the end of the 1991 Gulf War as thousands of Kurdish refugees tried to cross the border. Turkish troops stopped them from entering and many died from hunger and exposure on the mountains before relief aid could reach them.

Buffer zone

But a repeat situation is unlikely because, this time, Turkey is planning to set up a buffer zone. A spokesman for the Turkish government, Cemil Cicek, confirmed on Wednesday that Ankara reached an agreement with Washington to allow Turkish troops into northern Iraq during any U.S. invasion in order to create a buffer zone against an exodus of Iraqi refugees to Turkey.

The move is a reaction to Turkey's fears that Iraq's Kurdish population may try to seek independence, which would threaten stability in Turkey's largely Kurdish southeast. But Kurds in Iraq are opposed to the presence of Turkish troops and fear clashes if Turkey enters the region without the presence of U.S. troops.

No sign of U.S. troops

Although they are expected, there has so far been no sign of U.S. forces in northern Iraq. The two landing strips in the region, both within 40 kilometers of Irbil, remain free of tents and troop accommodation. But some villagers close to one of the strips, have reported a sudden surge in construction activity over the past 10 days.

And if the American troops do arrive, they will be greeted by a waiting army of tens of thousands of Kurdish Peshmerga freedom fighters, who are ready and willing to fight Saddam Hussein under U.S. command. On Tuesday Iraqi opposition groups pledged their full commitment to cooperate with the coalition and to put whatever forces they have under the control of coalition commanders.

As the impassioned Kurds await the arrival of their new commanders, they remain determined to fight for the freedom they have enjoyed since 1991. As one Peshmerga fighter put it, "we could flee or fight, but the country will remain Kurdistan, and it belongs to us."