What won't be said
"Western Balkans" is a term that the EU has been using for about 17 years. It includes the countries of the former Yugoslavia, minus Slovenia, which was excluded for being too Western and too prosperous. Instead, an undoubtedly authentic Balkan country - Albania - was added to the list.
The term carries negative connotations in Germany and the West, as does the word "Balkan." But there are also those in the Western Balkans who aren't too enamored of the West. There's a long history that has resulted in the stereotypes prevalent today: The Balkans with their inherent backwardness; the West with its inherent cynicism and arrogance.
Rhetorically at least, these clichés will be put aside in Vienna. Everyone will act as if the summit is a routine repeat of last year's meeting in Berlin, with the goal of intensifying regional cooperation and accelerating the formation of closer ties.
Western Europe doesn't want the Western Balkans
But the truth is, Germany & co. are not at all interested in having a bunch of poor, halfway failed states join the EU in the near future. No one will say this, of course. Instead, they'll repeat platitudes such as "The future of the Balkan states is in the European Union."
Western Europe has long dreaded the day that these countries with their dubious budget discipline would become EU members, not to mention members of the eurozone.
It must also be said that bilateral relations between Serbia on the one hand, and Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina on the other, have worsened in the past year. That has to do with the inability of the political elite to come to terms with the realities of the war years of the 1990s, and integrate these in the commemorative culture. Instead, concepts of the other as enemy remain alive below the surface, sometimes seeking expression. Many of the major points of the much-lauded 2013 Brussels Agreement to normalize ties between Serbia and Kosovo have yet to be implemented.
It may seem paradoxical, but it's true: The EU is investing in the rule of law in its own protectorate, Kosovo, while at the same time, many Kosovars are exercising their legal right to apply for asylum in Germany.
Disastrous economic situation
No country of the Western Balkans has managed to bring its economy back up to the level it had in 1989. Even in new EU member Croatia, the economy has been shrinking since 2009. In those places with slightly better economic figures, such as Macedonia and Montenegro, the existing power structures are crippling political renewal. Looking at Bosnia-Herzegovina, you have to ask what the West has actually achieved there over the past two decades. The country is neither politically nor economically stable.
Something is going wrong, from both directions. It's as if both the West and the Western Balkans are participating in a dance they don't want to end. But in Vienna, there won't be any such discussion. Compliments will be exchanged. Tiny achievements will be celebrated as success stories.
The working groups will soberly list all the promises that have gone unfulfilled since the last meeting. Sub-working groups will be formed. The list of failed attempts or buried projects is almost as long as the optimistic list of plans made a year ago in Berlin. But how do you change this? The hosts have no idea, nor do the guests.
The dominant topic is the growing number of refugees. The representatives from the Balkan countries will be informed about the problems in the bottleneck between Greece and Hungary, as well as the fact that refugees from EU country Greece are traveling to EU country Hungary via non-EU countries Macedonia and Serbia. Greece, feeling left in the lurch by Brussels, is not stopping them anymore. Hungary plans to stop them by building a fence, partly funded by Brussels. What will that mean for the Balkan countries?
Berlin also has another bone to pick. More than 40 percent of asylum applications in Germany are being filed by people from the Western Balkans. That cannot continue.
Tough test of national sensitivities
No matter what else happens at the summit, one thing is clear: The Western Balkans will not get the kind of economic assistance they need. A study by a university in Nice puts the amount of investment required by the region at 110 billion euros by 2020. But there is no political majority to support an aid package that size.
Weak countries that are surrounded by economically strong regions need catch-up modernization. They can't do it alone, because they don't have the funds.
It may be that Germany and the EU come to the frustrating conclusion that the money they've already invested in the Western Balkans has not brought about the hoped-for improvements. Maybe the wrong investments were made. Maybe it was too little. Maybe they partnered with the wrong people. Perhaps an annual summit is the wrong format.
For about two decades, the West has been claiming to be one of the main economic and political players in the Western Balkans. Now, 25 years after Yugoslavia broke apart we witness Europe failing this region again. It is a failure that everyone could see coming.
This, however, is a topic that will not be addressed in Vienna this week. But at some point it will have to be discussed.