What can be done to help the people in Syria?
The civil war in Syria has been raging for over four years now. More than a quarter of a million people have died and millions are on the run – they are stranded in Lebanon, Turkey or Jordan. And now, after hoping in vain that the war would end, they are on the way to Europe.
The war continues to fuel the war
Syria has been in a state of disintegration for a long time. Bashar al-Assad may still rule in Damascus and the Alawite regions of the country, but the "Islamic State" and the equally brutal and murderous al-Nusra Front have been waging war in great parts of the country. And sometimes, the democratic rebels manage to seize a town or two. One thing is sure: the war has not bled dry and will last a long time before its force has been exhausted.
What can be done? On the one hand, a military response is an option. Should the West launch attacks? Whose side should it be on? And above all, who is the West against? Against Islamic State? That would certainly make sense but wouldn't work with air strikes alone. Anyone who declares war on the self-proclaimed caliph al-Baghdadi indirectly backs Assad in Damascus. Nobody wants that, of course, as Assad has been given the greatest share of blame for the deaths in Syria. Nobody wants to fight a two-front war against Assad and the Islamic State – let alone with ground troops, and rightly so.
Turkey's actions against Islamic State and the PKK show us, by the way, how tricky these types of operations are. And, on top of that, how little success they have.
Complicated negotiation option
The diplomatic choice - or to be more precise, the diplomatic attempt at resolving the conflict - remains. It would only work if Assad took part and were invited to the negotiation table, which would be making an outrageous demand on Assad's democratic opponents - but perhaps, they could bear with it, especially if there were hope that this is only a temporary factor. Assad refuses to step down of his own accord– besides, where would he go? So Russia and Iran would probably come into play as negotiation partners. Then, the inevitable great round of negotiations would probably take place: with Washington, Moscow, the EU, Iran and Saudi Arabia, one of Assad's most bitter opponents and Iran's rival in the battle for supremacy in the Muslim world. This is the point in which the situation would become especially complicated, if not unsolvable. Maybe it would be better without the two countries. But would they accept that?
Saudi Arabia is observing with suspicion Iran's rise and return to the stage of world politics ever since the nuclear deal was concluded. Riyadh would like to have thwarted this comeback and would even have joined forces with Israel, which considers the nuclear agreement to be a fatal error.
The quest for a negotiated settlement would then end up turning into a diplomatic glass bead game. The prospects of change are bleak and to add to it all, would demand a tedious process. It would take too long to help the oppressed people of Syria. Yet military operations would also be useless as they do not promise success. So what can be done to put an end to this insane civil war? Right now, nobody knows.
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