France to stay the course
Politicians haven't held back with colorful metaphors when talking about the Greek crisis. But it was French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron who took the cake this weekend.
"After the Greeks' 'No, there mustn't be a new Treaty of Versailles in the eurozone," he said and warned against treating the Greek leadership too harshly.
In other words, he brought up the picture of a continent drowning in blood and chaos as a result of the harsh conditions imposed on Germany after World War I. Back then, France and Germany faced each other as arch enemies in Europe.
Today, the hostility has turned into a strong German-French relationship that's leading the way in the European Union. Which way exactly, though, could currently be questioned.
When French government politicians like Macron, Finance Minister Michel Sapin or President François Hollande talk about Greece, they sound a lot more understanding towards the debt-ridden country than their German counterparts. Is France in favor of a compromise with Greece at any cost?
German-French leadership at risk?
It's not just parties on the fringes who are congratulating Alexis Tsipras on his kamikaze-style politics. The left wing of France's Socialist government party is also clearly sympathetic towards the daredevil politician, who likes to do away with contracts and rules and instead invokes the will of the people, the prime argument in politics.
This attitude is familiar to the French, who just barely passed the EU Maastricht Treaty in a referendum. It's well possible that former education minister Benoit Hamon was right when he tweeted "The French would have voted like the Greeks."
After all, the president used to campaign with similar ideas. One of the reasons François Hollande was voted into the Elysée Palace three years ago was his emphasis on the fight against Chancellor Angela Merkel's austerity policies. But once in office, Hollande quickly switched to "government mode."
But all sympathy and longing for laxer rules in Europe aside, an end of the German-French unity in this crisis is unlikely. Paris just doesn't have enough power for that. The country is on the verge of becoming a victim itself.
French experts have been debating a possible "Frexit" much more seriously than Germans can imagine - of course, not today or tomorrow, but maybe in the long run.
Weak France
It's only been a few days since statisticians published alarming numbers: France could only barely keep their national debt under the symbolically important line of 100 percent of their GDP. And a quick recovery is not in sight. On the contrary: when French media reported on Greece's social systems that are in desperate need of improvement or on the country's inertness when it comes to reform, they could just as well have been talking about France.
Hollande's country is not in a position to start a power struggle with Germany. But the French president can fight for a bigger leadership role in the relationship that has been headed by Berlin for months, be it on the issue of Ukraine or Greece.
If France could increase its political weight by acting as an intermediary, no one in the Elysée Palace would complain. Hollande could be a good fit for the job. It was him who first invited Tsipras after he became prime minister in January.
But whether the French president gets the chance remains to be seen. Greece is in a downward spiral that maybe not even France can save it from, no matter how big the public sympathy. It's well possible that the French efforts are solely intended for a domestic audience.
No split ahead
In the end, the two heavyweights Berlin and Paris will present a united front on Greece and thus lead the way in this European crisis as well. Hollande can't take a chance on a long-term conflict with Merkel - that would be political suicide.
And then there's the French money. Depending on the bill, France owes 40 to 60 billion Euros. That means the country is less willing to take steps towards the central Greek demand: a debt haircut. Even though the French are generous with their public sympathy towards Greece, they don't have any money to spare. That's no different today than it was in the times of the Treaty of Versailles.