Climate time bomb

Climate Change is not an unknown phenomenon in Nigeria. Its effects have been felt for decades, since the famous sahelian drought of the early-mid 1970s. Back then, there was a global outcry and numerous conferences sought to find a long-term solution to what were the partly human-induced causes of the disaster. But to a large extent, resolutions adopted at the conferences remained on paper and were never really executed. The talks never progressed beyond the discourse stage.

The next evident sign of climate change struck 25 years ago in the north-eastern regions - currently comprising Borno and Yobe states. This time, it dried up the southern part of Lake Chad, the very section of it that lies inside Nigerian territory.

Some four decades ago, the lake covered an area of over 40,000 square kilometers. It now encompasses a mere 1,300 square kilometers, and the negative trend continues unabated.

Its shrinking is partly down to anthropogenic causes and partly due to climate change proper, which is seen globally as being predominantly induced by human beings.

The result of this drying up was the rapid southward expansion of the Sahara Desert. Farmlands and surrounding villages became barren and were swallowed by advancing desertification. This in turn led to massive migration from the north-east towards the greener Plateau and middle-belt regions.

Although the situation in the Lake Chad region and rising tensions and intermittent communal clashes in areas through which migrants pass, have raised the alarm several times, successive governments have failed to take the matter seriously.

A palette of environmental problems

Nigeria's Guinea Savannah region is not spared either. Logging and over-dependence on firewood for cooking have stripped a greater part of this area of its vegetation cover. It is a similar situation in the south, where the forest around Oyo has long been reduced to grassland.

The south-eastern part of the country has been struck by a different ill. There, gulley-erosion has devastated many settlement areas and farmlands, leading to poverty among local populations.

And it doesn't stop there. Just as desertification is devastating vast areas of the north, rising sea levels are threatening Nigeria’s coastal regions. Although a source of oil wealth, the Niger Delta's low-lying terrain and criss-cross of waterways make it extremely vulnerable to flooding.

Projections suggest a sea level rise of 0.5 meters would leave 35 percent of the Delta submerged. Were the sea level to rise one meter, however, 75 percent of the area would be lost to the water. This translates to the displacement of some 32 million people – or 22.6 percent of the national population – that would be forced to move northwards.

On the other side of the same coin, desertification is expected to push some 55 million people from 10 northern states further south. This combination will result in a potential refugee crisis and other social frictions in the middle-belt, where the two groups will converge.

With clashes between farmers already constantly on the rise, especially in the still fertile and greener middle-belt regions – the potential arrival of more than two million refugees means Nigeria is sitting on a ticking time bomb.

Negligence and a failure to tackle the issue of climate change by a string of governments have also contributed to the rise of insurgency groups across the country. Against this backdrop, if appropriate, preventive action is not taken and adaptation measures are not implemented in time, the results could be catastrophic.