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John Kirton

May 18, 2007

Prof. John Kirton heads the G8 Research Centre at the University of Toronto, Canada.

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John KirtonImage: John Kirton

This G8 certainly has the potential to be a transformational summit, to transform global order. The critical issue is the question of climate change and more specifically, can the G8 get their outreach five partners, especially China, to commit to control their own carbon emissions beyond the Kyoto protocol.

Whether or not countries meet Kyoto matters relatively little in a world where an unconstrained China will overtake the US as a No. 1 carbon emitter in the world. And then there is India, Mexico and Brazil behind them.

That is the defining question for Heiligendamm, and there is really no other issue of equal weight. What Heiligendamm does on this issue will determine whether the summit is a success or not.

Certainly Darfur will be on the agenda, as it has been on every summit since 2003. It is another case where one needs the Chinese to be a more responsible partner. There is some potential that it could happen, because part of the summit process at Heiligendamm is that for the first time the outreach five participants are being integrated more as participants in the G8.