Political brinkmanship

After the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) presented evidence that Iran has been working on a nuclear bomb despite sanctions, the European Union declared Thursday that it would not simply resign itself to the Islamic Republic's alleged atomic ambitions.

The EU intends to consult with its partners to find an appropriate response, according to Maja Kocijancic, a spokeswoman for EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton. Ashton represents the six nations - China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK and the US - involved in the stalled negotiations with Tehran. Their goal is to convince the Iranians not to further their atomic program.

France and the UK have called for new, strong sanctions. During their summit on October 23, the EU heads of state and government had already laid the foundation for further measures to be taken against Iran. On Thursday, experts in Brussels were working out the details. Previous sanctions have already been imposed by the EU, United Nations and US.

EU can't look to Security Council

The EU would prefer for the UN Security Council to find a common position on Iran's nuclear program, but it doesn't look like that will happen.China and Russia have made clear that they will not support another round of sanctions. The only other option remaining is a transatlantic front.

Within the EU, the big players are stepping forward. French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe has called for sanctions on "an unprecedented scale." His German counterpart Guido Westerwelle said that if Iran continues to reject negotiations "new, tougher sanctions will become unavoidable."

But the Europeans are currently preoccupied with the eurozone crisis - every day brings new existential questions. During such a period, the last thing Europe's leaders want is a global political crisis.

In addition, the economic effects of tightened sanctions against Iran could negatively impact Europe itself. An oil embargo, for example, would provide powerful political leverage over Tehran. But an import ban on Iranian oil would almost certainly raise the price of gasoline in Europe. That would not only drive up inflation but could also damage Europe's already weak economic growth.

For now, the Europeans hope that the threats of more sanctions will bring Iran back to the negotiating table. And even if European governments have distanced themselves from Israeli threats of a military strike, they are probably hoping in secret that this saber-rattling will have an impact on Iran's decision-making.

Author: Christoph Hasselbach, Brussel / slk
Editor: Martin Kuebler