Chancellor on the Defensive, Faces Tough Year Ahead

In front of more than 8,000 party members in Passau, Bavarian Premier and ex-Chancellor candidate Edmund Stoiber brashly called on his erstwhile opponent, Gerhard Schröder, to step down.

"This is the worst chancellor Germany has had in 50 years," said Stoiber, leader of Bavaria's Christian Social Union, to loud applause in a beer hall.

The stinging words were typical of Ash Wednesday, when Germany's politicians give traditional no-holds barred speeches loudly denouncing and zinging one another. But their message reflected a growing discontent with Germany's chancellor that crosses party lines.

Analysts say his decision to give up the leadership of the Social Democratic Party a few weeks ago was a clear sign Schröder's performance was angering party members at the ground level. Recent surveys showing the SPD ranking at an all time low among voters has made him look more vulnerable.

Schröder warns opposition to stand aside

In a fiery speech in front of party members in Düsseldorf Wednesday evening, Schröder defended his record and the SPD's unpopular efforts to reform an economic and social system that is bursting at the seams. He promised that the party would stick to its reform agenda in 2004 and attacked the opposition for trying to stand in the way.

"The conservatives are once again trying to gamble away Germany's future," he said.

But Schröder's government has largely had to rely on support from the opposition in passing reforms in December that sought to fix long-term unemployment and increase investment in the stalled economy. Critics have continued to attack the government for lacking a long-term reform vision.

Calling the Chancellor "untrustworthy," the Süddeutsche Zeitung wrote that Schröder is attacking Germany's economic problems in a piece-meal fashion: "The SPD will only recover from its downward spiral in polls if the voters can recognize the sense ... of the reforms."

Sending the chancellor a message

The unusually large number of elections coming up this year in Germany won't help the reform motor. There will be five state elections and eight municipal elections in 2004. Germany's opposition parties already have a thin majority in the upper chamber of parliament, meaning the Schröder government needs their favor in order to pass through tough reform packages.

If current polls are correct, the first of the elections, in the city-state of Hamburg this Sunday, would mean an increase in the opposition's majority in the Bundesrat.

If policy is paralzyed, rhetoric certainly isn't. During his speech, Stoiber called on voters to send the Schröder government a message in the upcoming elections.

"Every election they lose is good for Germany," said Stoiber, who enjoys a large following in the nationwide Christian Democrats Union.

Winning the popularity contest

The election super year, say observers, has already halted potential hard-hitting reforms in Germany's social and health system.

Schröder recently reined in his health minister, who had wanted to introduce a new bill next week that chipped away at the country's nursing care insurance. There are reports that he is considering reshuffling his cabinet, getting rid of unpopular ministers like transportation head Manfred Stolpe, who is widely blamed for the Toll Collect fiasco.

"Politics is paralyzed during the campaign season," analyst Hans-Herbert Armin told the Frankfurter Rundschau. "No one wants to make themselves unpopular."