Austria Votes

Austrian voters are going to the polls on Sunday, Nov. 24, after Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel called for elections a year before the government's official term ends. Now observers are speculating whether Austria will return to a coalition of the two main parties that determined post-war politics there: The conservative People's Party (ÖVP) and the Social Democrats (SPÖ).

The People's Party and the Social Democratic Party ruled the country together for the 12 years before the surprising success of the right-wing populist Freedom Party (FPÖ) in the 1999 elections.

Although the Social Democrats garnered 33.2 percent of the votes in 1999, the party was unable to find a coalition partner. Since then the ÖVP and the FPÖ, each of which brought in 26.9 percent of Austrians' votes, have been ruling the country in an unstable coalition.

An impossible governing situation

Chancellor Schüssel (ÖVP) did his best to avoid criticism of the antics of his coalition partner, the FPÖ. The recent visit of FPÖ founder Jörg Haider with Saddam Hussein and the party's anti-foreigner and anti-Semitic propaganda during the Vienna election campaign -- made going the course with the current government politically untenable.

In September the crisis in the Freedom Party escalated. At the FPÖ's party congress in Knittelfeld, the long-divided party broke into two wings: a more liberal wing supportive of then-FPÖ leader Susanne Riess-Passer and the followers of party-leader Haider. Four Freedom Party ministers, including Riess-Passer, resigned from their posts in the government.

Chancellor Schüssel was forced to call for new elections.

Though he remains the de facto head of the FPÖ and the state governor of Carinthia, Haider doesn't officially hold a position in the top echelons of the party. He gave up the party chairmanship in March 2000 amid intense international criticism of his ultra-conservative views. Since October Herbert Haupt, a veterinarian and current minister for social security has been the party's official leader.

Mobile voters

Now, six million Austrian voters have to decide who will run the country. Due to the implosion in the FPÖ, the party is expected to loose at least every second voter. Pollsters predict that the People's Party and the Social Democrats will bring in nearly 40 percent of the ballots each. The ÖVP, in particular, is expected to benefit from voters' loss of confidence in the Freedom Party, which may only bring in around 10 percent. The Green Party too is pegged to receive around 10 percent of the vote.

Three coalition scenarios are possible. Firstly, he status quo -- ÖVP and FPÖ -- could be confirmed -- an unlikely scenario according to the Austrian press.

Secondly, the People's Party and the Social Democrats could enter into another coalition. The Austrian media and political experts, however, say the two parties' reign from 1987 to 1999 was characterized by political deadlock, horse trading and constitutional breaches -- not the most appealing revival.

Thirdly, Austria could end up with the second red-green coalition in Europe between Social Democrats and Greens. Social Democrat Gerhard Schröder was planning a visit to Vienna to support his Austrian sister party, but the trip was cancelled. The seemingly endless reports of Germany's poor economic state and Chancellor Schröder's dramatic fall in popularity aren't the right ingredients to gain Austrian voters' support for a red-green government.

Vienna decides

The ÖVP and the FPÖ are concentrating their energies on winning over the Viennese, since the capital's voters are expected to decide the election. In Vienna though, the Social Democrats and the Greens are in charge of the city -- with a comfortable majority.