After Sharon, What Future for the Middle East?

After Ariel Sharon had a mild stroke a short time ago, his doctors adopted an unusual tactic recommended by the prime minister's staffers: they provided the public with detailed information about the medical emergency and asserted that it had been relatively harmless. They wanted to reassure the public that the almost 78-year-old prime minister was still on top of things, which was particularly important in view of the election campaign that had already started.

But since Wednesday night, such openness can't calm the public anymore. Whatever the result of the operations, it seems clear to everyone that Sharon won't return to active politics, which doesn't merely call into question the parliamentary election set for March 28, but also the entire situation in the Middle East.

Whatever you think of Sharon, one thing is undeniable: Like no other he determined -- or at least had a say -- in the region's fortunes through his tough approach to the Palestinians, his contemptible way of dealing with adversary Yassir Arafat, his closeness to George W. Bush and the stubbornness he repeatedly showed in ignoring international and even American misgivings -- as well as those of his political fellows.

Little alternative

Sharon's decision to go it alone when it came to the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza was an example of the latter. He even allowed the issue to cause an open conflict in the Likud block that he had brought together in the first place. Tired of the fight, he turned his back on Likud and founded his own party, Kadima, which was said to have the best chances in the election. The name means "forward," but it's seriously doubtful that will be the direction in the coming weeks and months. For, Kadima is still little more than Ariel Sharon himself -- and a small group of loyalists who have followed him but could hardly be in a position to successfully lead Kadima without him.

And the alternatives are bad: Binyamin Netanyahu has come out on top in the remaining Likud. He wasn't merely opposed to the Gaza withdrawal but also successfully sabotaged implementation of the Oslo Accord --the first real chance for peace -- during his term as prime minister. On the other side, the oppositional Labor Party can scarcely take advantage of the situation: its new leader, Amir Peretz, is an unknown quantity. And in the perpetually explosive circumstances, voters are hardly going to let in someone they don't really know.

At the same time, the political chaos among the Palestinians is getting worse. They are again considering delaying elections planned for late January. Perhaps the Israelis and Palestinians can at least agree on delaying both of their elections, since nothing positive can be expected in either case. It's important they get their respective affairs straightened out, for starters.